Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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Perknose

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I wonder if anyone here who still thinks Putin is or was in any serious danger of being overthrown has amended their take. Folks continue to view Russia -- from the Tsars through Stalin to Putin -- through some sort of Western perspective.

Russia is an entirely different culture. Hell, it's a different (and murky to parse) planet. Consider this: Russia did NOT experience The Renaissance.
 

fskimospy

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Mar 10, 2006
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I wonder if anyone here who still thinks Putin is or was in any serious danger of being overthrown has amended their take. Folks continue to view Russia -- from the Tsars through Stalin to Putin -- through some sort of Western perspective.

Russia is an entirely different culture. Hell, it's a different (and murky to parse) planet. Consider this: Russia did NOT experience The Renaissance.
While I don't know how you are defining 'serious' I think the Wagner revolt showed that he's much weaker internally than outside observers generally think. This has nothing to do with a 'Russian' or 'western' lens, this is purely through an examination of the power dynamic we saw there.

When Wagner started its march to the capital one of the most interesting things is that the police and territorial forces basically did nothing. They did not come to Putin's aid, instead apparently sitting around waiting to see how things shook out. That means Russian internal security was unsure of the outcome. If Putin were super secure they would not have done this.
 
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Pens1566

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While I don't know how you are defining 'serious' I think the Wagner revolt showed that he's much weaker internally than outside observers generally think. This has nothing to do with a 'Russian' or 'western' lens, this is purely through an examination of the power dynamic we saw there.

When Wagner started its march to the capital one of the most interesting things is that the police and territorial forces basically did nothing. They did not come to Putin's aid, instead apparently sitting around waiting to see how things shook out. That means Russian internal security was unsure of the outcome. If Putin were super secure they would not have done this.

Flip side to your point (which I don't disagree with) is that if Wagner couldn't pull it off, then what internal group possibly could?
 

Perknose

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While I don't know how you are defining 'serious' I think the Wagner revolt showed that he's much weaker internally than outside observers generally think. This has nothing to do with a 'Russian' or 'western' lens, this is purely through an examination of the power dynamic we saw there.

There was strong dissent arising from the Special Military Operation. But . . . to understand Russia you have to understand that, nevertheless, he was never in any serious danger of being overthrown, which is the entirety of my point.

Please consider this: How else do you explain with certainty why Prigozhin stopped cold? It just can't be logically understood through "Western" eyes.

SURE, there was some level of support in the military and elsewhere. But, guess what? Again, Putin was never in serious danger of being overthrown! Prigozhin went forth, hoping to change the mindset of his cowering fellow Boyars. That mindset is centuries old, and couldn't be overcome. It was never going to happen. Prigozhin thought he was larger than Russian history. He wasn't, and somewhere on the road to Moscow, WELL . . . :D
When Wagner started its march to the capital one of the most interesting things is that the police and territorial forces basically did nothing. They did not come to Putin's aid, instead apparently sitting around waiting to see how things shook out. That means Russian internal security was unsure of the outcome. If Putin were super secure they would not have done this.
Or, being part of a centuries old tradition of rigid, top down hierarchical control, they were waiting for orders. Without specific orders from "Daddy," they were unused to taking any initiative, even in this situation.
 
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Perknose

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Flip side to your point (which I don't disagree with) is that if Wagner couldn't pull it off, then what internal group possibly could?
No one and none, on balance. I'm no true expert, just an amateur a bit steeped in Russian history, but that's my take.

For reference, see all those experts who predicted the (internal) fall of Saddam Hussein, or (remember this?) Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

When you go for the King . . .
 
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Roger Wilco

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Flip side to your point (which I don't disagree with) is that if Wagner couldn't pull it off, then what internal group possibly could?

There was strong dissent arising from the Special Military Operation. But . . . to understand Russia you have to understand that, nevertheless, he was never in any serious danger of being overthrown, which is the entirety of my point.

Please consider this: How else do you explain with certainty why Prigozhin stopped cold? It just can't be logically understood through "Western" eye. SURE, there was some level of support in the military and elsewhere. But, guess what? Again, Putin was never in serious danger of being overthrown! Prigozhin went forth, hoping to change the mindset of his cowering fellow Boyars. That mindset is centuries old, and couldn't be overcome.

Or, being part of a centuries old tradition of rigid, top down hierarchical control, they were waiting for orders. Without specific orders from "Daddy," they were unused to taking any initiative, even in this situation.

IMO: A successful coup is still not possible, but the Wagner rebellion is a symptom of a deteriorating Russian state that is growing ever more prone to a successful coup.
 
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fskimospy

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There was strong dissent arising from the Special Military Operation. But . . . to understand Russia you have to understand that, nevertheless, he was never in any serious danger of being overthrown, which is the entirety of my point.

Please consider this: How else do you explain with certainty why Prigozhin stopped cold? It just can't be logically understood through "Western" eye. SURE, there was some level of support in the military and elsewhere. But, guess what? Again, Putin was never in serious danger of being overthrown! Prigozhin went forth, hoping to change the mindset of his cowering fellow Boyars. That mindset is centuries old, and couldn't be overcome.
Right, and my point is that I think important people in Russia's internal security apparatus are not as confident as you are.

I don't know if Putin will ever be overthrown but I definitely don't discount the possibility.
Or, being part of a centuries old tradition of rigid, top down hierarchical control, they were waiting for orders. Without specific orders from "Daddy," they were unused to taking any initiative, even in this situation.
Exactly my point! The commanders tasked with giving those orders could have given them and just... didn't. Not to mention the guy that was previously in charge of the whole Russian Army was apparently in on it.

I think in a broad sense when an armed mutiny makes it nearly to the capital without encountering much of any resistance this would not speak well of the strength of the regime.
 

fskimospy

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Flip side to your point (which I don't disagree with) is that if Wagner couldn't pull it off, then what internal group possibly could?
I feel like the usual suspects in most coups - internal security (FSB) or the army.

I do think if Russia suffers serious military defeat here that includes the loss of Crimea Putin will be in a very vulnerable position.
 

Perknose

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IMO: A successful coup is still not possible, but the Wagner rebellion is a symptom of a deteriorating Russian state that is growing ever more prone to a successful coup.
Lol, be careful what you wish for, no? If a coup comes, it'll come from the hard right, the ultra Patriots. Can you say, tactical nuclear weapons used against Ukraine? :eek:

Maybe not, but anyway, these clowns would soon fall to fighting amongst themselves, like wastrel idiot trust fund babies fighting over Daddy's estate. Maybe they start playing a game of "Who's going to sell actual nukes to the highest bidder first? :oops:

However, again, my take is Putin stays in power just as long as he wants to, no matter what.

Mao starved tens of millions of his citizens during the Great Leap Forward and stayed in power. The Kim dynasty may have starved a higher percentage of their own citizens and yet Kim Jong Un still waddles around like the emperor he is. Bashar al-Assad presided over one major clusterfuck of a rebellion which tore his country apart . . . and stayed in power. Papa Doc Duvalier ruled the poorest country in the Americas for decades and stayed in power.

There are precedents for my take on all this, is what I'm suggesting here. ;)
 

Perknose

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I feel like the usual suspects in most coups - internal security (FSB) or the army.

I do think if Russia suffers serious military defeat here that includes the loss of Crimea Putin will be in a very vulnerable position.
Aye, there's the rub: Crimea. Ukraine wants it back, no ifs, ands or buts. Putin will rain as much terror as the mighty Russian state can bring to bear to prevent that. Rock and a hard place. Buckle in for the ride, boyz!
 
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Perknose

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Exactly my point! 1. The commanders tasked with giving those orders could have given them and just... didn't. Not to mention the guy that was previously in charge of the whole Russian Army was apparently in on it.

2. I think in a broad sense when an armed mutiny makes it nearly to the capital without encountering much of any resistance this would not speak well of the strength of the regime.
1. The buck never stopped with any of them. It stopped with Daddy.

2. And that's a very reasonable perspective from your viewpoint. My point is that it doesn't pertain to the current Russian situation as much as those who adhere to that general viewpoint think it does. Putin was in any serious trouble of being overthrown. My take.
 
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I would **LIKE** to think that there is a doomsday failsafe system that would effectively disable all of their Nukes after an unauthorized power change.


But I'd **LIKE** to think a lot of things.
 

Roger Wilco

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Lol, be careful what you wish for, no? If a coup comes, it'll come from the hard right, the ultra Patriots. Can you say, tactical nuclear weapons used against Ukraine? :eek:

Maybe not, but anyway, these clowns would soon fall to fighting amongst themselves, like wastrel idiot trust fund babies fighting over Daddy's estate. Maybe they start playing a game of "Who's going to sell actual nukes to the highest bidder first? :oops:

However, again, my take is Putin stays in power just as long as he wants to, no matter what.

Mao starved tens of millions of his citizens during the Great Leap Forward and stayed in power. The Kim dynasty may have starved a higher percentage of their own citizens and yet Kim Jong Un still waddles around like the emperor he is. Bashar al-Assad presided over one major clusterfuck of a rebellion which tore his country apart . . . and stayed in power. Papa Doc Duvalier ruled the poorest country in the Americas for decades and stayed in power.

There are precedents for my take on all this, is what I'm suggesting here. ;)

I certainly am not optimistic about Putins’s potential replacement, but I do think a coup is growing more likely.

When a coup was attempted on Gorbachev, Moscow lost a tremendous amount of control over its external Soviet Republics, which ultimately left the Soviet Union. From my understanding, this was sort of a pressure release valve that provided enough stability for Russia to reconstitute itself as a lesser entity.

Presently, I don’t really see a pressure release valve in Russia’s cards. Moscow can’t afford to leave Ukraine as it left Afghanistan, and it can’t afford to relinquish lands under its control as it did with its Soviet Republics.

It genuinely seems like they have no option but to walk into the meat grinder until somebody kills the big guy.

I’m not saying I think this is a good thing though.
 

K1052

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Aug 21, 2003
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Various rumors of AFU progress on the Tokmak axis tonight. We'll see what the next couple days bring.

Edit: I see there are some Telegram posts about foreign troops attacking Russian positions. This is about an 8.5 on the vatnik panic scale. Demands for airstrikes on Telegram are the 10/10.
 
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Zor Prime

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Nov 7, 1999
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If true, you have to wonder what the Ukrainians are seeing on the front line to be confident enough to push so hard.
Yeah no shit. Their current slow-grind approach has supposedly been to limit troop losses, so if they're throwing the kitchen sink they must have seen a low hanging fruit.
 

bononos

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Aug 21, 2011
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View attachment 84836
Source

If true, you have to wonder what the Ukrainians are seeing on the front line to be confident enough to push so hard.
Ukraine has thrown in many of their assault brigades that were held back like the 82nd, 4 marine brigades in the Urozhaine area and probably some others. So it looks like Ukraine has decided that now is the time for the big push southwards while Russia is unable to do much in their own summer/autumn offensive in the east.
Ukraine needs to take alot of ground before winter while they still have an advantage in artillery, who knows whether Russia can develop something to counter that after winter like how they managed to deal with Ukrainian TB-2 drones early in the war and Himars later on.