Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,165
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146
Doubtful. Too much money to be made. Overtures will be made to the Africa leaders by other Russians and new deals made. Its difficult for the West to get involved in the area, so Russia have free rein here.

yep.

just rename them and throw some concessions to the local "officers" with cushy positions and even more brutal tactics to help them "cope" with the loss of their comrade.
 

RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
2,063
5,008
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Seems not much will happen inside of Russia. I suspect any public pundits who have been supporting Wagner will keep quiet after today. Swept under the rug, despite the collateral deaths.

Afterall, air plane crashes happens all the time.

1692854816654.png

Source

Ukraine may begin to see Wagner forces again. But remains to be seen if current Wagner forces will remain in the company or resign - if even they get that option. Its hard to see how else they would easily earn such dollars inside Russia. Certainly not on the front lines of Ukraine against Western weapons and Ukrainian drones expertise. Keeping tabs on friendly African leaders and terrorising civilians is a much simpler task.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,246
37,676
136
Norway to donate F-16's

It’s a little unclear exactly how many usable units Norway has left after the sale to Romania. Somewhere in the 10-20 rage seems to be the general consensus.

Best case scenario Ukraine will receive a total of low 80s frames so far.
 

emperus

Diamond Member
Apr 6, 2012
7,819
1,578
136
Seems not much will happen inside of Russia. I suspect any public pundits who have been supporting Wagner will keep quiet after today. Swept under the rug, despite the collateral deaths.

Afterall, air plane crashes happens all the time.

View attachment 84792

Source

Ukraine may begin to see Wagner forces again. But remains to be seen if current Wagner forces will remain in the company or resign - if even they get that option. Its hard to see how else they would easily earn such dollars inside Russia. Certainly not on the front lines of Ukraine against Western weapons and Ukrainian drones expertise. Keeping tabs on friendly African leaders and terrorising civilians is a much simpler task.


Not sure I'm buying her assessment. I think killing Prigozhin the way Putin did seems weak. If he wanted to kill him he should have done so publicly after the attempted coup. And if someone was attempting to come after Putin again, I think the lesson would be finish the job.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,831
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Not sure I'm buying her assessment. I think killing Prigozhin the way Putin did seems weak. If he wanted to kill him he should have done so publicly after the attempted coup. And if someone was attempting to come after Putin again, I think the lesson would be finish the job.

What we just saw was in essence a public execution. If having people tossed from great heights is a communicative standard from Putin, this was 'Don't Fuck With Me' announced at the highest volume possible (and from 28k feet for emphasis maybe).

The mutiny made him weaker, it was definitely humiliating, but Putin wasn't going to take any chances I suppose. Keeping Prigozhin alive for awhile allowed him to root out the collaborators. Had the cook simply been disappeared his allies would have gone to ground, maybe defected to the West.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
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It’s a little unclear exactly how many usable units Norway has left after the sale to Romania. Somewhere in the 10-20 rage seems to be the general consensus.

Best case scenario Ukraine will receive a total of low 80s frames so far.
That is not nothing, USSR has like 250 mig-29’s right? And how many of those are actually combat ready? And of those how many can they spare and still maintain readiness on its other fronts?

More F-16’s …/ more more more
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,246
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That is not nothing, USSR has like 250 mig-29’s right? And how many of those are actually combat ready? And of those how many can they spare and still maintain readiness on its other fronts?

More F-16’s …/ more more more

80 F-16s is a good start. It will take a couple years to get pilots and crews trained up to make use of that inventory.

Ukraine probably needs a 2nd western plane though. They seem to want the Gripen C/D which could be obtained as units are surplused from Sweden's Air Force and they could open a line in Ukraine to build them also. Sweden appears pretty open to this once they join NATO. It would be the most cost effective option if they have to go out and purchase. They seem to be keeping their options open however since they also told Finland they would like their F/A-18Cs. They're also eventually going to need trainers that can be pressed into attack roles if required, maybe the Aero L-39NG since the Czechs are very friendly.
 
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Nov 17, 2019
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So, again I ask, is there any movement from the AfrikaKorps to make something happen at home?
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
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With fighter jets pouring into Ukraine, and with that the breaking of the "long range weaponry" rule, I am sure a lot of other stuff that can actually hit long inside Russia is coming soon. The only real thing that can save Russia's ass now is a power change in the WH.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,246
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With western aircraft coming the issue really shifts to what are they gonna be armed with.

Air to air stuff likely no problem (AIM 9, AIM-120, IRIS-T, etc).

Air to ground and anti-ship is the real question. Since the US, for dumb reasons, is skittish about powered cruise missiles, hopefully we at least give the AGM-154 JSOW. Ukraine has received Harpoon so they could probably get more for air launched roles. I suppose Ukraine could also figure out how to mount their R-360 Neptune.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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Some word circulating that Ukraine struck that S-400 site with an R-360 Neptune.

There had been word that Luch successfully evacuated the production line and that they were modifying for more range and improved guidance in a land attack role.
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
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Well, so far there is no positive ID of Prigozhin's body, but, as I understand it, not all of 10 bodies have been found yet.
 
Feb 4, 2009
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I envy the optimism in here. I think we're content to continue bleeding Russia ... for as long as possible, which sucks for Ukrainians because along with the dead Russians you've got stacks of dead Ukrainians as well.

If we wanted this over quickly I think it would be. I don't think it's even a party issue, I think it's a national interests issue. If we can supply some people somewhere else across the oceans some old equipment and chicken feed to do our bidding as a byproduct why wouldn't we want to keep that gravy train rolling. If we provide too much support, it ends, or Russia freaks out. Best to keep a trickle flow going, right? That is, unfortunately, what I see occurring.

We need to shit or get off the pot, at this rate we're bordering on being complicit for a lot of dead Ukrainians ... the only thing preventing our image being blemished at this time is being on a moral high ground but it's starting to look like a facade.

We're going to run out of old crap to send. We already supplemented cluster munitions we didn't want anymore because we ran out of shells we were sending. We're going to run out of more stuff -- it's going to carry a higher price tag, and it's going to become a political issue for politicians everywhere in the west.

Ukraine will win, depending on how you define win. I don't see this ending up black and white, I see fucked up concessions coming down the pipeline in the end.
We can make more.
 
Feb 4, 2009
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Well, so far there is no positive ID of Prigozhin's body, but, as I understand it, not all of 10 bodies have been found yet.
Wreckage looked nearly incinerated per what I saw yesterday. Basically a pile of ash and some metal.
I’m not an expert in this field and I am sure someone who is qualified could do it, just remember this is Russia where an unusual amount of people fall out windows.
 
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Nov 17, 2019
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Well, there is this, but who knows what to believe from there.

Prigozhin's body taken to medical examiner's office as Kremlin remains silent

www.msn.com.ico
ABC on MSN.com|6 hours ago
The bodies of Evgeny Prigozhin and the commander of the Wagner PMC Dmitry Utkin have been moved to the Tver Regional Bureau of Forensic Medical Examination.

Wagner Boss Prigozhin's Body ID'ed in Morgue by Missing Finger: Report

www.thedailybeast.com.ico
The Daily Beast|1 hour ago
DNA testing is expected to provide the final say on whether the mercenary boss is among the charred bodies in a Tver morgue.
 
Nov 17, 2019
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And an eyebrow raiser from the DailyFail ....


Yevgeny Prigozhin's plane 'was likely blown up by a bomb placed by the bathroom' reports say as claims emerge 'stewardess talked about mystery repairs on jet before take-off'

www.dailymail.co.uk.ico
Daily Mail|5 hours ago
The plane crash alleged to have killed Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and co-founder Dmitry Utkin ... Last night, UK security officials pointed the finger at Putin, accusing the Russian president of assassinating his most dangerous political rival.
 
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[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
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Wreckage looked nearly incinerated per what I saw yesterday. Basically a pile of ash and some metal.
I’m not an expert in this field and I am sure someone who is qualified could do it, just remember this is Russia where an unusual amount of people fall out windows.
There's usually enough left over to count, gotta find all the bits though. It's a bit grim but it can take a while depending on how large the debris field is.
 

emperus

Diamond Member
Apr 6, 2012
7,819
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What we just saw was in essence a public execution. If having people tossed from great heights is a communicative standard from Putin, this was 'Don't Fuck With Me' announced at the highest volume possible (and from 28k feet for emphasis maybe).

The mutiny made him weaker, it was definitely humiliating, but Putin wasn't going to take any chances I suppose. Keeping Prigozhin alive for awhile allowed him to root out the collaborators. Had the cook simply been disappeared his allies would have gone to ground, maybe defected to the West.

I think the weakness is that he let him stay on and didn't kill him immediately. Mutiny is treason. Even if something like that happened in the US with a US General, they would be arrested on the spot (people don't fall out of windows here) they wouldn't be chilling at events with the President.
 

Stokely

Platinum Member
Jun 5, 2017
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Something like that DID (allegedly) happen in the US, though not with a general and not with a line of rolling tanks and trucks. It was a coup of phone calls and texts and failed intimidation. And that (alleged) traitor might well be elected as the next President.