Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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Not necessarily a fan. Rewards Putin with part of what he wants. Not even sure Vlad would go for it TBH.

Having said that, not sure more is "naturally" possible via the ongoing conflict without major escalations in one way or another.

A lot of the concern over escalation is pretty misplaced. Every time Moscow blusters that giving this or that is going to cross some line it's bullshit because there is really nothing they can do.

That we wring our hands over providing Ukraine things that the Russians use against them on a daily basis is kind of crazy.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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A lot of the concern over escalation is pretty misplaced. Every time Moscow blusters that giving this or that is going to cross some line it's bullshit because there is really nothing they can do.

That we wring our hands over providing Ukraine things that the Russians use against them on a daily basis is kind of crazy.
I agree - I think the fact that we are not directly engaging Russia is smart and I think the prohibition on using our weapons to strike within Russia is probably also smart. Beyond that, fuck Russia - as you say, what are they going to do?
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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I agree - I think the fact that we are not directly engaging Russia is smart and I think the prohibition on using our weapons to strike within Russia is probably also smart. Beyond that, fuck Russia - as you say, what are they going to do?

I think that military targets in the border oblasts should be fair game for our systems. Or if we are not going to allow that then help Ukraine produce systems and munitions that can do that job.

But that Crimea isn't under regular attack from the full buffet of American made standoff range munitions is a true shame and gives Moscow an unfair advantage.
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
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A lot of the concern over escalation is pretty misplaced. Every time Moscow blusters that giving this or that is going to cross some line it's bullshit because there is really nothing they can do.

That we wring our hands over providing Ukraine things that the Russians use against them on a daily basis is kind of crazy.

What I meant by "escalations" was more along the lines of a severe change in either what we supply, or someone else jumping in. All going towards the point that I'm not convinced that Ukraine can reclaim the land as the order of battle currently stands. Nothing at all about what the fallout (no pun intended) would be.
 
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[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
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This is getting bagged on a bit but basically what's most likely to happen.

Ukraine is not likely to be able to physically reclaim Crimea and at least some of Donbas due to proximity of Russian border. A deal that exchanged say pre Feb 24 lines for NATO accession would be a reasonable one.

Or.... Ukraine can keep pushing their shit in until RU forces are unable to maintain their own territory, at which point they can call for peace at pre-2014 borders and stay the fuck in their own country.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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Or.... Ukraine can keep pushing their shit in until RU forces are unable to maintain their own territory, at which point they can call for peace at pre-2014 borders and stay the fuck in their own country.

It would be extremely difficult to push the Russians out of Crimea even if the bridge is taken down. Putting their assets there under credible threat however provides incentive for them to negotiate.
 

rommelrommel

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2002
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Kerch is so much easier to defend than Chonhar/Armiansk axis. Plus… it’s Ukraine’s actual border.

I do understand why people are wondering if Ukraine can ever pry Crimea back, but maybe we might settle for some of our own land is no way to prosecute a defensive war.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
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It would be extremely difficult to push the Russians out of Crimea even if the bridge is taken down. Putting their assets there under credible threat however provides incentive for them to negotiate.
If there is no land bridge, and no Kerch Bridge, Russia would never be able to supply its forces in Crimea.
It would be a war of attrition that they would certainly lose.

The problem is pushing south and reaching the Sea of Azov with 5 landmines per square meter.
We do not know if Russia or Ukraine will break first, in the protracted war for the land bridge.
But make no mistake, that land bridge is everything for Crimea.
 
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Drach

Golden Member
Apr 24, 2022
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I think that military targets in the border oblasts should be fair game for our systems. Or if we are not going to allow that then help Ukraine produce systems and munitions that can do that job.

But that Crimea isn't under regular attack from the full buffet of American made standoff range munitions is a true shame and gives Moscow an unfair advantage.
Thank you!
 
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Zor Prime

Golden Member
Nov 7, 1999
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If there is no land bridge, and no Kerch Bridge, Russia would never be able to supply its forces in Crimea.
I'm confused. Couldn't they use planes, helicopters and ships? After leaving RU aerospace it's probably a few minute flight. Maybe ten?
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
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I'm confused. Couldn't they use planes, helicopters and ships? After leaving RU aerospace it's probably a few minute flight. Maybe ten?
Open hunting season with all sorts of toys that can be deployed in the air and sea around Crimea.
It would ultimately be a fool's errand.
 
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Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
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I'm confused. Couldn't they use planes, helicopters and ships? After leaving RU aerospace it's probably a few minute flight. Maybe ten?

They could but not at the level needed to sustain large amount of forces in Crimea let alone all the civilians currently living in Crimea. The elimination of the land bridge and kerch bridge would probably force Russia to evacuate the civilians in the area and would be very limited in how many troops it keeps in Crimea.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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They could but not at the level needed to sustain large amount of forces in Crimea let alone all the civilians currently living in Crimea. The elimination of the land bridge and kerch bridge would probably force Russia to evacuate the civilians in the area and would be very limited in how many troops it keeps in Crimea.

Yes, they'd evacuate the civilians so they wouldn't have to support them. I think the Russians would go to extreme lengths to retain Crimea and at costs anybody else would consider unreasonable.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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Yes, they'd evacuate the civilians so they wouldn't have to support them. I think the Russians would go to extreme lengths to retain Crimea and at costs anybody else would consider unreasonable.
I agree with that - primarily because I think if Russia loses Crimea Putin will follow it out shortly thereafter.

I think there are scenarios where Russia can lose the other territories it's occupied and bullshit their way out of it - something like 'well, we killed all the Nazis so it's time to go home'. Can't see that with Crimea though.
 
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Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
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Yes, they'd evacuate the civilians so they wouldn't have to support them. I think the Russians would go to extreme lengths to retain Crimea and at costs anybody else would consider unreasonable.

Having to evacuate the civilians from Crimea would be humiliating for Putin. Putin needs more humiliation.
 
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Dave_5k

Golden Member
May 23, 2017
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What do we P&Ners think of the idea of the disputed areas going under UN control, with all RU and UK forces moved out? Sort of a neutral DMZ.
Only if Russia retreats to pre-war lines. No new prizes for its war of aggression. And immediate large-scale deployment of NATO to secure Russia/Ukraine borders (along with agreement for accelerated admission of Ukraine to NATO) along with UN forces to the Donbas DMZ.

And as an incentive, can agree to loosen non-military sanctions upon Russia completing withdrawal and UN verification of the independent DMZ, and not require further compensation for damages beyond the use of already seized assets for Ukraine.

Russia won't keep any promises unless enforced by troops on the ground, and taking several hundred billion in seized foreign reserve assets to start the rebuilding of Ukraine is a fair start.
 

trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
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Only if Russia retreats to pre-war lines. No new prizes for its war of aggression. And immediate large-scale deployment of NATO to secure Russia/Ukraine borders (along with agreement for accelerated admission of Ukraine to NATO) along with UN forces to the Donbas DMZ.

And as an incentive, can agree to loosen non-military sanctions upon Russia completing withdrawal and UN verification of the independent DMZ, and not require further compensation for damages beyond the use of already seized assets for Ukraine.

Russia won't keep any promises unless enforced by troops on the ground, and taking several hundred billion in seized foreign reserve assets to start the rebuilding of Ukraine is a fair start.


At the very least I can also see Ukraine trading every Russian sympathizer in Ukraine that helped Putin take over Crimea for the thousands upon thousands of Ukrainian children the Russians kidnapped from their homeland to you know, make things right and righteous.
 
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RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
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I may not know what I'm talking about but that seems like a pretty rapid clear of that town, the first time I heard the name was like yesterday. Is it super tiny or did they just zerg rush the place?
Robotyne has been under pressure for some time. Its been one of the focal points on the southern fronts. Russia have deployed an enormous volume of mines though, and the Ukrainians just haven't been able to get the Western mining gear to the front intact. So demining takes time by brave sappers.

Help is coming, but keeping this gear safe is a problem;
1692145710081.png

Source
 

RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
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Some other news from the front via Tendar in the last few days;

1692146845879.png
Source
1692146896887.png

Source

Together with the Tendar post above, these are the 3 main area's where the Ukrainian counter offense is concentrated. They are holding and pushing when they can in the Bakhmut area.

Interestingly there may be a 4th option in the Southern front;
1692147944950.png
Source

Seems the ground is getting dry enough to possible drive over it and the Ukrainians can now stop any water flow with ease.
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
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Only if Russia retreats to pre-war lines. No new prizes for its war of aggression. And immediate large-scale deployment of NATO to secure Russia/Ukraine borders (along with agreement for accelerated admission of Ukraine to NATO) along with UN forces to the Donbas DMZ.

And as an incentive, can agree to loosen non-military sanctions upon Russia completing withdrawal and UN verification of the independent DMZ, and not require further compensation for damages beyond the use of already seized assets for Ukraine.

Russia won't keep any promises unless enforced by troops on the ground, and taking several hundred billion in seized foreign reserve assets to start the rebuilding of Ukraine is a fair start.
This would be a form of appeasement. It keeps its "old" prizes. Russia is not shown that borders must be respected. Every time we appease Putin, he just gets bolder. Maybe he’ll die - then we'll have the problem with the next crazy freaking Russian dictator, or the one after that since they’ll need to rebuild. It’s just a damn vicious circle with Russia, or a disease of the mind.

IMHO, they walk away without one hectare of Ukrainian land from its pre-2014 borders. That and the western world takes a piss on them for the next decade. Maybe then we talk about restoring trade and whatnot.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
34,067
8,083
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I understand that'll help detect and clear the large landmines that destroy vehicles. Not sure it'll detect the anti personnel leaflets. OTOH, don't know how many of those Russia actually has.