Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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borosp1

Senior member
Apr 12, 2003
476
427
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Poland detains Russians spreading Wagner Group propaganda

The men were spreading material from the Russian mercenary Wagner Group in Poland's two largest cities, the minister said.

"The Internal Security Agency identified and detained two Russians who distributed propaganda materials of the Wagner Group in Krakow and Warsaw," Kaminski wrote on messaging platform X, formerly known as Twitter.

"Both were charged with espionage, among other things, and were arrested."

Polish media last week reported that stickers had appeared with the Wagner logo and inscriptions in English reading: "We are here — join us."

The stickers included QR codes linking to a Russian website about the mercenary group.

The ABW said the Russians were in possession of more than 3,000 propaganda leaflets promoting the Wagner group. "The material was given to them in Moscow," the agency said. The suspects were set to receive "up to 500,000 rubles" ($5,000) for their activities, it added.

Polish daily newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza said the stickers were reported to the police by residents in Krakow and Warsaw.



Also, here is 1 of the guys arrested Instagram: bonapart__1
Code:
https://www.instagram.com/bonapart__1
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,246
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Poland detains Russians spreading Wagner Group propaganda







Also, here is 1 of the guys arrested Instagram:

They're lucky the cops caught them instead of somebody else.
 
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[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
15,363
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Maybe all of MAGA moves to Alaska and then votes to join Russia. Russia is about their ideal country. Strong leader, few minorities, government sponsored church, not friendly to LGBQT, low women's rights, oil economy, etc.
Fuck that noise, Alaska is too pretty. Give them the Pacific garbage patch, or maybe just break the fucking country apart and let them chew on each other for a few decades.
 
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you2

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2002
6,022
1,159
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Fuck that noise, Alaska is too pretty. Give them the Pacific garbage patch, or maybe just break the fucking country apart and let them chew on each other for a few decades.
Give them florida in 100 years when it is 1/2 under water.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
34,067
8,085
136
I'm more interested in them challenging the Mongolian Hordes.
I assume they would wait to expand in Asia until the European theater is settled.

It is their obvious aggression towards Europe that I am concerned about. This is assuming a worst case scenario for Ukraine. Where Russia reaches the Polish border. That's a lot of new land to organize for the next war effort. Besides, I think Moldova would be the next step. Then the Baltic's. This could easily be stretched out over a time span of 5-10-20 years. However long it takes, right?

But by then.... let's say a Republican takes office and vows to support Russia. They'll call it peace, but that is just a disarming and a dismantling of NATO. That is a US saboteur helping pave the way for further Russian aggression. And if the United States is not involved, does Europe REALLY have what it takes, politically and militarily, to easily handle Russia? Hungary would open the doors. Serbia might want to assist. Together with a conquered Ukraine, Moldova, Baltic's, and an absent United States, I think Poland and Germany might face a real threat.

Who is to say that the US and Russia couldn't work together to get Turkey to flip?
Do not underestimate the damage our country could cause, if our leaders go to bat for the other team.

And what condition would Europe be in, after accepting 20-30 million refugees?
Russia might purchase right wing friendlies who rise to power through a Russian provoked refugee crisis.

I say, ultimately, if Ukraine falls, Poland better start a nuclear weapons program ASAP. It is the only real deterrence, because you cannot rely on signed agreements with anyone.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,165
30,117
146
Fuck that noise, Alaska is too pretty. Give them the Pacific garbage patch, or maybe just break the fucking country apart and let them chew on each other for a few decades.

ah. yes, the pacific garbage patch that they are too "proud" to admit to existing. Give them a flotilla out there in the gyre--a charybdic current that will. quite essentially, keep them away from the rest of us, and, most mercifully...uh yeah, also away from the rest of us so whatever else who cares--and let them spend their next 17 generations praying to their newly-evolved god, Dennis Hopper
 
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RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
2,062
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Russia's Central Bank raised rates by 3.5% overnight to stop the slide in the Ruble.

All going according to plan apparently.

They can't do this too many times to support their currency, there is an election coming next year.
 

you2

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2002
6,022
1,159
126
Russia's Central Bank raised rates by 3.5% overnight to stop the slide in the Ruble.

All going according to plan apparently.

They can't do this too many times to support their currency, there is an election coming next year.
hahahahaha ! Election? I mean like you know what happens to you if you vote against the chosen candidate. Hint if you don't end up on the front line; in a coffin; or fall out of a window you will only get 30 years of hard labor in siberia wildnerness where you get to mine Uranus in your birthday suite. I mean after all this is Russia..... not Iran.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,710
51,001
136
Russia's Central Bank raised rates by 3.5% overnight to stop the slide in the Ruble.

All going according to plan apparently.

They can't do this too many times to support their currency, there is an election coming next year.
Russia has already floated the idea of cancelling elections because they are so sure Putin will win.
 

Pipeline 1010

Golden Member
Dec 2, 2005
1,960
782
136
They can't do this too many times to support their currency, there is an election coming next year.

LOL!!!

This just gave me a mental image of Putin actually losing the election due to raising interest rates too high. Then he gracefully transferred power to the more fiscally prudent rival. The intense effort required to even imagine such a thing, has likely destroyed some of the few brain cells I have left.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,246
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,246
37,666
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This is getting bagged on a bit but basically what's most likely to happen.

Ukraine is not likely to be able to physically reclaim Crimea and at least some of Donbas due to proximity of Russian border. A deal that exchanged say pre Feb 24 lines for NATO accession would be a reasonable one.

 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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Another Russian testament to how effective US supplied DPICM is and complaints that they have no counter-battery to silence AFU's guns which are ripping them to pieces.
Notes that AFU has learned to target reinforcements and withdrawals with cluster munitions leading to great numbers of casualties.

You have to click through the link to see the post since there is a problem with the embed.

 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
34,067
8,085
136
This is getting bagged on a bit but basically what's most likely to happen.

Ukraine is not likely to be able to physically reclaim Crimea and at least some of Donbas due to proximity of Russian border. A deal that exchanged say pre Feb 24 lines for NATO accession would be a reasonable one.
Thing is, Ukraine already had a piece of paper to guarantee its safety. Which has lead us here, to a complete and widespread Genocide. Russia gains a physical advantage in exchange for a promise. That's suicide.

There have to be GUARANTEED and immediate consequences to further aggression. And that won't happen with just another agreement everyone can shrink back from and ignore.

How would this even be established? NATO would demand a ceasefire first, followed by a vote among NATO members. Russia gains the immediate physical advantage, while Hungary and Turkey hold out for months, or even years. Long enough for Russia to start another provocation, a violation of the ceasefire, and cancellation of the whole process. How is the ceasefire not a hollow promise that will never be honored?

Then there is the 1,000 pound elephant in the room. What good is NATO, if there is any chance in hell that a Republican could gain power and turn the US against NATO? The United States may act as a Russian agent sooner rather than later. It would be suicide for Ukraine to stake their lives on a house of cards built by us.

If you achieve a ceasefire before a clear positional advantage, only NATO military bases in Ukraine and or Ukrainian owned nuclear weapons would help act as security from further aggression. I bet anything that Russia will attack again prior to either of those things happening. NATO forces would have to take up positions on the frontline immediately after a ceasefire. Then we might be forced to honor our agreement.

Otherwise, you are just giving the larger country time to leverage its size and scale in preparation for the next attack.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,246
37,666
136
Thing is, Ukraine already had a piece of paper to guarantee its safety. Which has lead us here, to a complete and widespread Genocide. Russia gains a physical advantage in exchange for a promise. That's suicide.

There have to be GUARANTEED and immediate consequences to further aggression. And that won't happen with just another agreement everyone can shrink back from and ignore.

How would this even be established? NATO would demand a ceasefire first, followed by a vote among NATO members. Russia gains the immediate physical advantage, while Hungary and Turkey hold out for months, or even years. Long enough for Russia to start another provocation, a violation of the ceasefire, and cancellation of the whole process. How is the ceasefire not a hollow promise that will never be honored?

Then there is the 1,000 pound elephant in the room. What good is NATO, if there is any chance in hell that a Republican could gain power and turn the US against NATO? The United States may act as a Russian agent sooner rather than later. It would be suicide for Ukraine to stake their lives on a house of cards built by us.

If you achieve a ceasefire before a clear positional advantage, only NATO military bases in Ukraine and or Ukrainian owned nuclear weapons would help act as security from further aggression. I bet anything that Russia will attack again prior to either of those things happening. NATO forces would have to take up positions on the frontline immediately after a ceasefire. Then we might be forced to honor our agreement.

Otherwise, you are just giving the larger country time to leverage its size and scale in preparation for the next attack.

An immediate NATO deployment would be required for such a deal to have credibility and I'm sure the Ukrainians would require it to sign off.
 
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UNCjigga

Lifer
Dec 12, 2000
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This is getting bagged on a bit but basically what's most likely to happen.

Ukraine is not likely to be able to physically reclaim Crimea and at least some of Donbas due to proximity of Russian border. A deal that exchanged say pre Feb 24 lines for NATO accession would be a reasonable one.

I also think this is what’s most likely to happen but it only works for NATO/Ukraine if you have “neutral” peacekeeping forces in the occupied territories. Crimea may be ceded to Russia as their “prize” in order to get them to sign an armistice—but the Donbas/Eastern Ukraine would basically turn into Cyprus. Bring in peacekeeping forces from Bosnia or some other non-NATO country to keep the peace between Ukrainian speakers and Russian speakers.
 
Nov 17, 2019
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What do we P&Ners think of the idea of the disputed areas going under UN control, with all RU and UK forces moved out? Sort of a neutral DMZ.
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
12,321
9,173
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What do we P&Ners think of the idea of the disputed areas going under UN control, with all RU and UK forces moved out? Sort of a neutral DMZ.

Not necessarily a fan. Rewards Putin with part of what he wants. Not even sure Vlad would go for it TBH.

Having said that, not sure more is "naturally" possible via the ongoing conflict without major escalations in one way or another.
 
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