Jaskalas
Lifer
- Jun 23, 2004
- 34,067
- 8,085
- 136
Crimea is the single most important thing to secure Ukraine's future, and eastern Europe.Ukraine will win, depending on how you define win. I don't see this ending up black and white, I see fucked up concessions coming down the pipeline in the end.
It provides Russia a forward position in the Black Sea, where they cut off a vital artery to the world's food supply.
The land bridge allows Russia to blow the dam, control or damage Europe's largest nuke plant, and use short range weapons to constantly bombard Kherson City.
If Ukraine takes it, they gain access to a powerful Port, land that can provide Air Defense coverage to vital areas, and no more risk of a southern flank attack. It shortens and simplifies the front lines, which is hugely beneficial to a smaller defender such as Ukraine in the future. Crimea is the ultimate security guarantee that Ukraine will need. I wouldn't even count on NATO membership being as valuable, unless it comes with forward deployed military bases or even nuclear weapons.
I think Russia would rather lose Crimea than see the full force of the west on its front door. Or forward deployed nukes. Of all the options, it's likely the only valid option in the first place.
After our 2024 election, I don't trust NATO to even exist by 2026. Or our military and financial support to Ukraine to be sufficient to maintain combat readiness. Ukraine NEEDS a shorter frontline and a secured southern flank. The world needs a secured Black Sea. If we don't at least get that before 2025, Ukraine may ultimately lose the fight for its existence.





