Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
34,067
8,085
136
Ukraine will win, depending on how you define win. I don't see this ending up black and white, I see fucked up concessions coming down the pipeline in the end.
Crimea is the single most important thing to secure Ukraine's future, and eastern Europe.
It provides Russia a forward position in the Black Sea, where they cut off a vital artery to the world's food supply.
The land bridge allows Russia to blow the dam, control or damage Europe's largest nuke plant, and use short range weapons to constantly bombard Kherson City.

If Ukraine takes it, they gain access to a powerful Port, land that can provide Air Defense coverage to vital areas, and no more risk of a southern flank attack. It shortens and simplifies the front lines, which is hugely beneficial to a smaller defender such as Ukraine in the future. Crimea is the ultimate security guarantee that Ukraine will need. I wouldn't even count on NATO membership being as valuable, unless it comes with forward deployed military bases or even nuclear weapons.

I think Russia would rather lose Crimea than see the full force of the west on its front door. Or forward deployed nukes. Of all the options, it's likely the only valid option in the first place.

After our 2024 election, I don't trust NATO to even exist by 2026. Or our military and financial support to Ukraine to be sufficient to maintain combat readiness. Ukraine NEEDS a shorter frontline and a secured southern flank. The world needs a secured Black Sea. If we don't at least get that before 2025, Ukraine may ultimately lose the fight for its existence.
 

trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
14,990
7,506
136
I envy the optimism in here. I think we're content to continue bleeding Russia ... for as long as possible, which sucks for Ukrainians because along with the dead Russians you've got stacks of dead Ukrainians as well.

If we wanted this over quickly I think it would be. I don't think it's even a party issue, I think it's a national interests issue. If we can supply some people somewhere else across the oceans some old equipment and chicken feed to do our bidding as a byproduct why wouldn't we want to keep that gravy train rolling. If we provide too much support, it ends, or Russia freaks out. Best to keep a trickle flow going, right? That is, unfortunately, what I see occurring.

We need to shit or get off the pot, at this rate we're bordering on being complicit for a lot of dead Ukrainians ... the only thing preventing our image being blemished at this time is being on a moral high ground but it's starting to look like a facade.

We're going to run out of old crap to send. We already supplemented cluster munitions we didn't want anymore because we ran out of shells we were sending. We're going to run out of more stuff -- it's going to carry a higher price tag, and it's going to become a political issue for politicians everywhere in the west.

Ukraine will win, depending on how you define win. I don't see this ending up black and white, I see fucked up concessions coming down the pipeline in the end.


Reminds me of the Korean War and how the Panmunjom armistice talks dragged on and on arguing about every little pissant thing that had nothing to do with ending the conflict to no one's satisfaction.
 
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Drach

Golden Member
Apr 24, 2022
1,132
1,794
106
Finally some relief.
You want a fight Putin, you got it.
It is a typo about 30000

 
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RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
2,062
5,007
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A high level overview of Ukrainian combat operations with an interesting historical comment;

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The goal of Ukrainian combat operations is to kick the Russians out. The easiest way is via regime change. IMHO this means Crimea needs to be under Ukrainian control. If there is a break through at either green or yellow borders, Crimea and the whole Southern front is lost. Russia just can't hold either of them long term.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
15,363
13,690
146
Bingo. The issue is already below 50% approval in polls and will continue to sink heading into 2024 as people become increasingly frustrated that they're still paying out of the nose for everyday items. Top 5? It won't even be a top 10 issue at that point.
Don't be dumb. Not a dime of taxpayer money is going to Ukraine right now, nor is any decision there going to affect the price of goods for us anytime soon.

Every weapon we give Ukraine is another job for an American to build something, Americans benefit substantially from war (as gross as that is in reality).
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,831
40,425
136
It's becoming painfully obvious that in the end, Ukraine will not be able to win. All of this money down the drain and all these wasted lives. And whatever rumored prospect there was early in 2022 of some sort of cease fire or reconciliation is long gone.

So...who blinks first?

Well, another self-defeating comment from you about a topic you are ignorant of. Here I thought you only did this in threads regarding democrats seeking office.

You know how you had months and months of being wrong regarding the elections here in the States? Yeahhhh. You thought things were obvious then too, how'd that work out? Probably time to stop acting like you are informed enough to have a coherent opinion. You aren't even capable of comprehending what's happening in the US. Now it appears painfully obvious this is also the case with Ukraine.

Just stop. Run along now.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,165
30,117
146
Public opinion has soured on the situation and will only get worse.

completely untrue. Even among the unwashed masses (republicans), support for the defense of democracy and Ukraine is about 60%, this in spite of the fact that some 30-60% of their party comprises of Russophilic MAGATs.

what the fuck nonsense are your shoving into your head, to think demonstrably untrue things?
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,165
30,117
146
Bingo. The issue is already below 50% approval in polls and will continue to sink heading into 2024 as people become increasingly frustrated that they're still paying out of the nose for everyday items. Top 5? It won't even be a top 10 issue at that point.

again, this is a lie. Support in the US is about 65%

Why are you lying?
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,246
37,665
136
For the defeatists you should remember that the US is not the only party here and until the Ukrainians themselves decide to end the war, which they won't until at least southern Ukraine is reclaimed, it's not going to end. Europe seems to have settled into acceptance that it will support Ukraine over the long haul and that EU membership is going to be forthcoming. Russia also needs sanctions lifted no matter what they bluster about the supposed health of their clearly declining economic situation. That's not happening without Ukrainian consent. At the end of the day Putin needs a deal and that's not going to come without abandoning significant territory that does not belong to him in the first place, this is going to happen either in the field or at the table.

If we want to end the war more quickly on these terms then giving Ukraine what they need to turn everything of military value in Crimea into a smoldering ruin is the way to accomplish that. Southern Ukraine and Donbas hold basically no value for Russia and the sooner they admit that in service of keeping Crimea the better for everyone.
 

GodisanAtheist

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2006
7,166
7,666
136
This war will enter a phase where Ukraine either needs to make rapid gains or will have to have a negotiated settlement with RUS.

As much as I hate to say it the gaslit American populace, who have no concept of the proportion or scale of our military funding thanks to our dogshit media, wont support money going to Ukraine with "nothing" to show for it in perpetuity.

Additionally, Americans have a really bizzare relationship with the word "aide". We cannot chew gum and pat our head at the same time, politically, when it comes to aide. If Americans are feeling the pinch in their pocketbook, they will reflexively insist on reducing "unnecessary" spending elsewhere even if that money would have never been used in a billion years to make the life of an actual American one iota easier.

Weird watching some the oldies in this forum take on ideological positions rather than pragmatic ones. Biden *needs* a deadman's switch to spend all remaining aid and move munitions and supplies to Ukraine in the totally fucked scenario where he loses the 2024 election (or dies or something, knock on wood).
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,109
136
Personally, I’m not a defeatist at all. I believe western support for Ukraine and sanctions on Russia will bring this war to an end with more favorable terms for Kyiv than Moscow. I just think that our position (just the US here) has become morally indefensible. Russia's world wide blackmail in ending grain shipments pushed me further along in that thinking. The destruction of civilian targets has been extreme. WWII levels. Thankfully, in part to mass migration, civilian casualties have not reached those levels. War crimes abound. UAF soldiers are taking heavy casualties every month.

There exist a country in the world that arguably possesses more military might than any country in history (excluding Nukes). We have the means to move troops into Ukraine in a defensive support role, the affects of which would protect key military assets and civilian cities - and likely completely destroy morale of themRussian military (for starters). We have the ability to stop and inspect Russian cargo vessels (it could take weeks to 'properly, process these ships), without a blockade, just as the Russians are doing with the Ukrainians

The in country logistics, air defense, repair facilities, medial facilities that we would be able to move closer to the front lines would improve the UAF's combat effectiveness and send their morale thru the roof.

The best lesson we can teach Russia, IMHO, is that international borders are international borders - and to make sure they walk away from the war without even one hectare of Ukrainian land in their possession.

We have opportunities to put boots on the ground, and sailors on decks without directly putting them into the battle. I’ve defended Joe and often made the point that I’m not the one sitting at the president’s desk having to make the hard call. But I’m 100% convinced that the situation in Europe and Russia has shifted to the point we’re we can very substantially reduce the duration of the war and its casualties and we should do so. All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to stand by idle. This war is evil and while not idle, we have purposefully tied one arm behind our backs.
 
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Nov 17, 2019
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All kinds of items on this page, but I can't tell how timely or relevant they are:

 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
34,067
8,085
136
For perspective, here are Russia's maximalist goals for the rest of this century.
The entirety of the Soviet Union's full extent, plus Alaska.
AKA, Genocide on everyone, everywhere.

Russia merely lacks the strength to do all this, but if US and NATO falter due to treasonous people being elected with promises to stop our opposition to this war. If our elected leaders begin vowing to sit idle amidst Genocide and conflict. All of Eastern Europe would be dragged into this conflict sooner rather than later.

We either stop Russia conventionally, or with nukes. The longer this drags on, the more countries will be damaged, the more we'll need to rely on nukes.
Avoid nuclear war, stop Russian aggression TODAY!

A training centre in Tambov, Russia, has hung a banner showing a 'new Russian empire' comprising all of central and eastern Europe, a re-divided Germany, Finland, central Asia, Mongolia and Alaska, with the slogan "We will teach you to love the Motherland".

 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
34,067
8,085
136
Reasonably accurate?

Russia Loses 4,140 Troops in a Week as Ukraine Gains Ground: Kyiv

Ukraine's military reported Russia has lost 254,380 troops since the beginning of the war in February 2022.

Not remotely accurate.
I believe the primary inaccuracy for Ukraine's numbers, is that would be casualties rather than kills.
So 254,380 killed + wounded.

I come up with this answer based on leaked U.S. official estimates which roughly add up to Ukraine's numbers, once that difference is taken into account.
 
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APU_Fusion

Golden Member
Dec 16, 2013
1,291
1,921
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For perspective, here are Russia's maximalist goals for the rest of this century.
The entirety of the Soviet Union's full extent, plus Alaska.
AKA, Genocide on everyone, everywhere.

Russia merely lacks the strength to do all this, but if US and NATO falter due to treasonous people being elected with promises to stop our opposition to this war. If our elected leaders begin vowing to sit idle amidst Genocide and conflict. All of Eastern Europe would be dragged into this conflict sooner rather than later.

We either stop Russia conventionally, or with nukes. The longer this drags on, the more countries will be damaged, the more we'll need to rely on nukes.
Avoid nuclear war, stop Russian aggression TODAY!

A training centre in Tambov, Russia, has hung a banner showing a 'new Russian empire' comprising all of central and eastern Europe, a re-divided Germany, Finland, central Asia, Mongolia and Alaska, with the slogan "We will teach you to love the Motherland".

Reeks of desperation. Alaska? I mean really? 🤣
 
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