Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,831
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Ah shit, that news about the Black Sea getting restricted really made my day, but looks like it isn't going to happen. Passage agreements say Russians have the right to return ships to their home ports, and they have ports in the Black Sea. Turkey can make it up to Zelensky by sending more drones and ammo.

That's great news about the railways though. Russian logistics are crappy when railroads are working, now it's going to be a real slog.

Apparently Putin has now deployed about 50% of his military assets thus far, and getting pretty agitated by the effective Ukrainian resistance. How much gear and boots is he willing to expend here I wonder. Will it be the Russian military that gets gutted, leaving Russia with only missiles and a Navy to threaten a stronger NATO with?
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,831
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I think we're officially out of countries objecting to the SWIFT expulsion? Wow, cool. DO IT.
 
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Sunburn74

Diamond Member
Oct 5, 2009
5,037
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NO, I DO N OT want to see US boots on the ground in this shitstorm. It's just not our fight...I'm fckng tired of the US being drawn into every war to be the police. Defend our borders...yes, defend US (not corporate) interests abroad...maybe

You're dreaming if you think the sons and daughters of the Republican elite will end up being drafted. Children of the "average Joe American"? Sure...we've got a long history of doing that, but the children of the wealthy and powerful always get exempted...Just ask Captain Bone Spurs.
I don't want to see US boots either but we did signs treaty agreeing to defend the Ukrainians from aggressors and we are more or less pretending that treaty doesn't exist.
I really don't know how to feel about the 1994 peace treaty we signed with them. It really at this time seems like a betrayal. At the very least they should have been admitted to NATO much earlier.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,831
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I don't want to see US boots either but we did signs treaty agreeing to defend the Ukrainians from aggressors and we are more or less pretending that treaty doesn't exist.
I really don't know how to feel about the 1994 peace treaty we signed with them. It really at this time seems like a betrayal. At the very least they should have been admitted to NATO much earlier.

There are criteria to meet for admission, and after 30 years Ukraine still hasn't satisfied most of them. Not saying it won't happen, just that an early entrance via skipping the rules just was never on the table.

Trump was the betrayal, the US and Biden are standing with Ukraine now but it serves no good to create a larger, much more severe conflict where the Russians feel justified in using tactical nukes.

Things are definitely not going Putin's way now, Iet it play and let's hope Putin doesn't trigger Article 5 with a cyber attack. If he does, I'd still rather see us unleash the Raptors and take the skies than put American boots on the ground. That gives Putin an immediate shot in the arm for support, and we want his descent into paranoia, impatience, failure and solitude to continue as much as possible.
 
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Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
15,284
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Because there's a certain level of technological progress and industrial competence that's implied by being a nuclear nation. What Russia is presenting is the efforts of a third world dictator with rusty cold world garbage.

Given the presentation of this invasion, one has to question how much effort has gone into maintenance of those nukes.
I've wondered that too, maintenance of nukes and their delivery systems is very expensive. Based on their air force and tanks, I have doubts about how many would get out of their silos.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
15,363
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I suspect it's entirely true. It's clear no real effort was built to create supply lines. Minimal effort was deployed to a single airport near Kyiv, probably only to bring in SOF troops. No rail yards were secured, no road systems beyond the south near Crimea, no other areas that could have even served as air strips in a pinch. This was minimal effort for an expected minimal resistance, and it was expected to be over in a day or two. Bunch of clowns.
 
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Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
15,284
10,882
136
Sure sure, key power players that gets flown off buildings if they dont obey command.
You really think there is any of that structure left? And the Ukraine invasion still pushed forward? I am gonna put my money on NO.
They all know if nuke any one they and their families would all be dead within 45 minutes. That is much different than attempt to stop an invasion of a former satellite state.
 
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quikah

Diamond Member
Apr 7, 2003
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I don't want to see US boots either but we did signs treaty agreeing to defend the Ukrainians from aggressors and we are more or less pretending that treaty doesn't exist.
I really don't know how to feel about the 1994 peace treaty we signed with them. It really at this time seems like a betrayal. At the very least they should have been admitted to NATO much earlier.

Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances - Wikipedia Nothing about defending them from aggression in there. Only stipulation is that we must go to the UN security council to seek assistance on their behalf. Not much use when one of the belligerents has veto power on that council.
 
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nicalandia

Diamond Member
Jan 10, 2019
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Apparently Putin has now deployed about 50% of his military assets thus far, and getting pretty agitated by the effective Ukrainian resistance. How much gear and boots is he willing to expend here I wonder. Will it be the Russian military that gets gutted, leaving Russia with only missiles and a Navy to threaten a stronger NATO with?
Without Nukes, Russia has a pretty lousy Army. They would get mauled by the USA.
 
Dec 10, 2005
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dphantom

Diamond Member
Jan 14, 2005
4,763
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I mentioned that in the other post...I kinda doubt it does and in this kind of war where it is untrained citizens forced to defend themselves against an invading army, it's probably on the table, to a certain degree?
I believe the below will answer your question.

Treaties, States parties, and Commentaries - Geneva Convention (III) on Prisoners of War, 1949 - - (icrc.org)
(2) Members of other militias and members of other volunteer corps, including those of organized resistance movements, belonging to a Party to the conflict and operating in or outside their own territory, even if this territory is occupied, provided that such militias or volunteer corps, including such organized resistance movements, fulfil the following conditions:
(a) that of being commanded by a person responsible for his subordinates;
(b) that of having a fixed distinctive sign recognizable at a distance;
(c) that of carrying arms openly;
(d) that of conducting their operations in accordance with the laws and customs of war.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,831
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Was only a matter of time before the Checha and Ingush showed up, Kadyrov always goes along with whatever Putin wants. They're better fighters than their Russian equivalents, and didn't spend a few weeks soaking in wet muddy snow before the fighting.

Might not be enough for Ukrainian preparations and tenacity though, those guys and gals are putting up one hell of a fight.