Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
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A few weeks of conventional bombardment will do the same thing.
I honestly don't think Russia can sustain this for a few weeks. They are less than 96 hours in, have committed half their forces (and likely lost half of those). They have units getting lost, running out of fuel and water/food, and are being waylaid by random unarmed passersby. They have failed to take a single city, and haven't even been able to secure the airspace which should have been the first thing that happened. Strategically and tactically this has been a catastrophe so far. If they pull back to start shelling, they'll probably be annihilated by Ukraine's army.

I'm personally guessing that this whole thing will be wrapped up one way or another by Wednesday.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,246
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By all accounts the Russians are pissed that Ukraine's resistance is so stiff. Which I guess explains the underpowered assault the first couple days and them really struggling to bring more into play and stay supplied.
 

brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
27,738
26,901
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Well well well…. even our own backyard autocrat wannabes is reading the room. Lets hope this is a thing.

All of the autocrats like the power that Putin has in Russia and want to be like that. What they can't get past is Russia's history in Eastern Europe and their own desires to not become vassal states again. They aren't excited about supporting a democratically elected government in Ukraine but they sure do give a shit about their own power. I think that is Putin's miscalculation, his move into Ukraine plays into what happened after WW2 and Eastern Europe has no stomach for going back to those fun times.
 
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1prophet

Diamond Member
Aug 17, 2005
5,313
534
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Come on guys...let's do our part to help out...

274908580_468702578128995_3081273213924271604_n.jpg
real Ukrainian women aren't some helpless eye candy

 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
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Just heard that SWIFT removal is happening and Turkey is closing the Black Sea.
Closing the Bosporus would be a major international treaty violation. Russia would through a major conniption fit. Big if right now - can’t imagine the Russians just lying down over this. +1 for Erdogan after some of the shit he’s pulled recently.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
38,501
8,771
136
Because Putin is behaving super irrational right now. How he will react to SWIFT and the backlash at home and Russians abroad, increased NATO presence at borders, Ukraine i invasion dragging out and even then realizing that occupation is gonna be impossible… The Vlad might look at a first strike nuclear offensive as a chance he has to take. Also. How many subs outside US coastline right now? Cause he IS gonna go for the head of the snake.

Dude is running a one man show and he is fucked in the head AND HE SINGLE-HANDEDLY controls about 6K nuclear ballistic missiles.

One man.

I wonder why the west has come up with this idea of separation of powers, checks and balances? Gosh… could it be in part to prevent something like this?
I do not believe that. He's been isolating himself but he's not invulnerable. This could spell the end of him.
 
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trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
14,990
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The longer the Ukrainian forces hold out, the better their chances are of having Putin come to terms although it does look unlikely the Ukrainians can accomplish this given their limited military capabilities. That being said, It would be very interesting to gain knowledge of the discrete logistical/technical mechanizations that the Western nations have deployed toward assisting the Ukrainians in stopping the Russians from seizing control of their nation.

In the long term, financially isolating Russia from the rest of the world seems to be the plan being invested by the free (democratically run) nations of the world. Too bad that China, Putin's asian autocratic equivalent and pro tem ally of convenience will play the part of the spoiler in order to improve their position as a power not to be trifled with.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
15,363
13,691
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By all accounts the Russians are pissed that Ukraine's resistance is so stiff. Which I guess explains the underpowered assault the first couple days and them really struggling to bring more into play and stay supplied.
Yep, no plans for an extended assault meant no supply chains were set up ahead of time to facilitate. I suspect the shipping coming into the black sea was meant to dock at a Russian controlled city by now.
 
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compcons

Platinum Member
Oct 22, 2004
2,206
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see, that's why I brought up Geneva before continuing on with that post... :D
Does the Geneva convention cover citizens defending their country or does taking up arms automatically make them combatants?

I for one would go all out if necessary to defend my home, Consequences be damned. I mean you are likely to die anyways and it's really not the military using nerve gas...
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
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The longer the Ukrainian forces hold out, the better their chances are of having Putin come to terms although it does look unlikely the Ukrainians can accomplish this given their limited military capabilities. That being said, It would be very interesting to gain knowledge of the discrete logistical/technical mechanizations that the Western nations have deployed toward assisting the Ukrainians in stopping the Russians from seizing control of their nation.

Equally likely that they are gearing up for a second wave of 60-80k troops and mechanized units to finish the job. No US Intel on that yet - the Russian army was woefully unprepared logistically. If they are able destroy most of Ukraine's AA capabilities, it becomes a different kind of war. Close air support with the Russia equivalent of the hellfire missile and and air launched precision guided bombs are a bitch.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
38,501
8,771
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- - - -
MOSCOW — President Vladimir V. Putin has ushered in a crisis for his country — in its economy and identity.

The Kremlin is hiding the reality of the country’s attack on Ukraine from its own people, even cracking down on news outlets that call it a “war.”

But the economic carnage and societal turmoil wrought by Mr. Putin’s invasion is becoming increasingly difficult to obscure.

Airlines canceled once-ubiquitous flights to Europe. The Central Bank scrambled to deliver ruble bills as the demand for cash spiked 58-fold. Economists warned of more inflation, greater capital flight and slower growth; and the S&P credit rating agency downgraded Russia to “junk” status.
- - - -
The Kremlin is heavily censoring info going to the Russian public, creating a different reality. If Putin's fall is in the offing they are going to spin it.
 
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dphantom

Diamond Member
Jan 14, 2005
4,763
327
126
This is one of the best analyses of Russian tactics I have seen. Pulls no punches, aligns with other OSINT I follow for the most part. And indicates that the old Soviet methods are still essentially in effect in today's Russian armed forces.

Lack of logistics capabilities - you know what they say about what wins wars - combined arms, training etc all are having a profound negative effect. Doesn't mean Russia cannot still "win" whatever that may now mean. It is going to be much much harder the longer this drags out.

Stanimir Dobrev on Twitter: "1/I am going to try to explain the irrational Russian Armed Forces behavior towards strategy, common thought, or even the chances repatriated SSO that are now POW try to murder a bunch of men with stars." / Twitter
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,165
30,117
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Does the Geneva convention cover citizens defending their country or does taking up arms automatically make them combatants?

I for one would go all out if necessary to defend my home, Consequences be damned. I mean you are likely to die anyways and it's really not the military using nerve gas...

I mentioned that in the other post...I kinda doubt it does and in this kind of war where it is untrained citizens forced to defend themselves against an invading army, it's probably on the table, to a certain degree?