Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
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You stupid shitheads - Russia is not complicated. It is a mafia state. Once you realize it’s run by organized crime everything makes sense.
Increasingly tending towards disorganised crime. You still have factions. Its not all one big happy family splitting up the proceeds.

But yeah, everyone outside of Russia is likely to miss with their guesses of what will happen if Putin is pushed, or even if he will be pushed.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
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I told you that your and mine and every other western perspective about Russia is pretty much always wrong because, at least the opposite tends to happen in *whatever situation*. ANd you know this as well as I do. I said, as everyone as pretty much always figured out, is that what seems normal to us is not at all true with Russians. This is no mystery to anyone.
This. If you want to understand Russia a bit more, ask a Russian or someone from a former Eastern block nation. I’ve read extensively on Russia in the early 80's and 90's and even had a formerly Russian friend at work - Russian's do not think like we in the west do. My 'intellectual father' on Russia and foreign affairs in general was Zibignew Brzezinski. I check in from time to time on Julia Ioffe's interviews/commentary, and others. You’d have to live there for a fair bit of time to really start to understand that country. Most capable intellectuals in this area have spent time in Russia and have friends in Russia (in addition to their scholarly work). I consider myself to know just enough to be dangerous, as the saying goes - and probably worse as I didn’t follow nearly as much after I got married in 1995. Wife, career, family, evening grad school, etc.
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
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In today's episode of things we really should have done months ago:

Absolutely true, the administration kept miscalculating the abilities of the Ukrainians and is walking a political tight rope that I think is wider than the admin thinks. Very glad to hear that the F-16 will start becoming operational in Q4-2023 vs Q1-2024. Every little step forward helps.
 
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biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
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So was (and is) Haiti, but Poppa Doc Duvalier stayed in power from 1957 . . . until his death in 1971.

Somoza in Nicaragua stayed in power from 1936 until his death in 1956 . . . and was succeeded by his son.

There are so many other examples it isn't funny.
Also, just because it is a mafia state, doesn’t make it less complicated, when we are talking about the largest country in the world and it has nuclear weapons.
 

rommelrommel

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2002
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Kinda tho, what’s left?

ATACMS
Tomahawk
JASSM

Those I could see being supplied.

LRASM, JASSM-ER stocks are legitimately low. Most large drones are probably too vulnerable to air defence.

A lot of other stuff is legitimately too advanced to risk.

Probably more important to send them volume of DPICM, continue to send all the armor they can use, keep ramping up artillery shells, get GLSDB going, ramp up GMRLS (or even better get GMRLS-ER in mass production and give them all the old stock) etc. Also whatever bombs they can make use of from F16.
 
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rommelrommel

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2002
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ATACMS is all that stands between Ukraine and Crimea. It would mean the absolute end of the Kerch Bridge.

ATACMS last fall might have. Now there is so much air defence I’m not sure it would be effective. I bet having cruise missiles in volume would be more viable. A big salvo of JASSM and MALD would put it in the drink I suspect.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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ATACMS last fall might have. Now there is so much air defence I’m not sure it would be effective. I bet having cruise missiles in volume would be more viable. A big salvo of JASSM and MALD would put it in the drink I suspect.

Since the record of Russian AD taking out Storm Shadow is not great a strike with low observables like JASSM likely to succeed if the bridge is guarded by S-400. Though ATACMS has never been tired against the system either so while technically it should be able to defend against it the Russians often exaggerate capabilities.

Ideally a complex strike with converted S-200 missiles, JASSM, ATACMS, and MALDs would be very likely to succeed I think.
 
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Leeea

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Apr 3, 2020
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Since the record of Russian AD taking out Storm Shadow is not great a strike with low observables like JASSM likely to succeed if the bridge is guarded by S-400. Though ATACMS has never been tired against the system either so while technically it should be able to defend against it the Russians often exaggerate capabilities.

Ideally a complex strike with converted S-200 missiles, JASSM, ATACMS, and MALDs would be very likely to succeed I think.
We have seen GMLRS get shot down by Russian AA, and we have seen entire salvos of GMLRS punch right through Russian AA like unstoppable golden super weapons while Russian AA fires interceptors ineffectively.


I suspect ATACMS would perform similarly. Some would get shot down, and some would punch straight through.


I do not think it is the GMLRS rocket that is the super weapon. I think it is the Russian AA QA that is the issue. Those same QA failures will allow some ATACMS missiles to copy GMLRS successes.


In other words, Ukraine does not need a stealthy super weapon when 1/2 the Russian AA systems are defective.
 
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rommelrommel

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2002
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They aren't even really "critics" in a meaningful sense. They've been idea floaters for war expansion/escalation. It's only because Prigozhin also wanted escalation; they've become worrying to Putin by association. Right now Putin is weak AF and needs all the messaging to be that he's basically perfect.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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Yeah this makes no sense. They have insufficient range for any utility against China and would be basically insignificant in another conflict with North Korea.

There are also definitely not 500 units on order for FMS. The ATACMS line is in low rate production. It would be a trivial matter to order replacements that are sent to Ukraine.
 
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you2

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2002
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So, he's sort of like Trump (our next dictator in chief) ?
Not really - he is not a total moron like Trump. Trump has one perfect skill and that is being an anal-con-man. Remove that skill and he has nothing. Well he knows how to delay the hell out of the justice system (though judges have wised up and that is not working as well as it used to).
 

RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
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They aren't even really "critics" in a meaningful sense. They've been idea floaters for war expansion/escalation.

Seems they are all being taken down a nudge. Interesting thread on a report on these right wing talking heads;


Interesting that Girkin seemed to have an army or the beginnings of an army behind him. Also interesting that various mouth pieces that we assumed have been directed from the Kremlin are also being targeted. But a commenter on the thread says this;
Maybe the strategy is changing, they realize the war is unwinnable, so time to start throwing all the useful idiots under the bus who are no longer going to be useful.
Maybe the useful idiots will be a liability if the blame game for the lost war begins in earnest.

Also interesting about the other political factions mentioned in the report. The left wing has mostly left Russia, the communists are not trusted and are not considered a threat. So that left the far right wing nationalists to be considered.
 
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rommelrommel

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Tsinni Dave

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Mar 1, 2022
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You were saying? Are you upset Zelensky is bombing religion?
So Russia targeting a fucking civilian area which, in this story if it is to be believed, a Ukrainian defensive missile misfired and destroyed a historic church makes Zelensky the bad guy? Seriously? That'd be terrorism, right? State sanctioned terrorism? Say it with me in your shitty fucking Russian hovel - "Russia is committing state sanctioned terrorism targetting civilian areas."

edit - rommelrommel is obviously a faster typist.
edit 2 - No "bud" this time? Different shift or does the "bud" guy have to push someone out a window?
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
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You were saying? Are you upset Zelensky is bombing religion?
So Russia is staring upcoming population collapse in the eyes and failure to educate new smaller generations to maintain technological critical infrastructure. Facts right?
With that in mind your dear leader decides to turn the knob from 1 to 10 and yank all viable male specimen into the meat grinder. Who the fuck is gonna make the babies now?
Anyway, Putin is 70, its not his problem how fucked you all are in 10 or 20 years.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
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So Russia is staring upcoming population collapse in the eyes and failure to educate new smaller generations to maintain technological critical infrastructure. Facts right?
With that in mind your dear leader decides to turn the knob from 1 to 10 and yank all viable male specimen into the meat grinder. Who the fuck is gonna make the babies now?
Anyway, Putin is 70, its not his problem how fucked you all are in 10 or 20 years.
Absolutely! Russia's demographics suck. Many of the most talented millennials and GenXers bailed for Europe when the war started. Now their young men are be wiped out at a rate close to 10k/month (Many of the wounded will struggle to find wives).
 
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