Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
24,030
13,539
136
Peter Zeihan on the whole grains export situation.
Russia fucking everybody over now.

Maybe he figures that he can create even bigger refugee streams into Europe with famine wars and destabilize opposing governments that way.

youtube.com/watch?v=nPg7AdXSrbE&t=620s
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,246
37,676
136
Photos out of the Odessa region indicate the Russians indeed targeted the major grain terminals probably because 1) they can't hit anything else 2) they really suck.

We really should give them enough ATACMS and JASSM to smoke the naval base at Sevastopol.
 

Drach

Golden Member
Apr 24, 2022
1,132
1,794
106
Photos out of the Odessa region indicate the Russians indeed targeted the major grain terminals probably because 1) they can't hit anything else 2) they really suck.

We really should give them enough ATACMS and JASSM to smoke the naval base at Sevastopol.
We need to give Ukraine everything we have other than nuclear .
 
Nov 17, 2019
12,404
7,521
136
For the BRICS enjoyers (or maybe I should use the singular) in here a nice display of unity that Putin can't go so South Africa because they'd have to arrest him lol.



Maybe overstating things a bit?


South African leader says that arresting Putin if he comes to ...

https://apnews.com › article › south-africa-ramaphosa-putin-arrest-warrant-c62b4be0fd177d827214199cb60db98f
1 day agoSouth Africa's president said Tuesday, July 18, 2023 that arresting Putin — should he show up at an economic summit next month in Johannesburg — would amount to a "declaration of war" by his country.
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
34,070
8,085
136
As mentioned, Russia is sealing the end of the grain deal. Some photos of the damaged port facilities to transport food.
Russia is deliberately targeting food. Not for Ukraine, but for the world. Because the more countries fail and millions suffer, the more refugees will flood into Europe and destabilize NATO.
Attacking the food supply is an attack on NATO.

We need to recognize this as such. Russia's Genocide cannot go unanswered.

 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,831
40,425
136
I hope we can help Ukraine bolster the AD of ports. Seems like focusing on them now is the logical course for Putin as it inflicts the most pain on the world and Ukraine. Perhaps destabilizing the middle east again will divert Western resources, money and attention?

Sub skippers dying from lead poisoning, drone attacks on ships in Sevastopol, Kerch playing catch again. Good to see Ukraine keeping the Black Sea fleet in it's crosshairs. I'd prefer to keep Russia bleeding, focus on nullifying their efforts towards ports and grain shipments, but if they send in the Kilos for some precision sinking attempts it might need to be open season time on the Black Sea: if it's Russian, it goes to the bottom. Turkey and NATO are certainly prepared for it.

Putin adding widespread famine and another Arab Spring to his list of achievements means a lot more dead people, will hinder the defense of Ukraine as well. We shouldn't allow it.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,109
136
As mentioned, Russia is sealing the end of the grain deal. Some photos of the damaged port facilities to transport food.
Russia is deliberately targeting food. Not for Ukraine, but for the world. Because the more countries fail and millions suffer, the more refugees will flood into Europe and destabilize NATO.
Attacking the food supply is an attack on NATO.

We need to recognize this as such. Russia's Genocide cannot go unanswered.

I don't see, from what I've been reading, that there will be a major refugee crisis in the EU. Wheat prices will skyrocket in Africa (in particular Egypt). There will be far more deaths due to starvation. Ukraine produces too much wheat to make up for the shortfall using grain from other countries. The main thing, for Russia, is that Ukraine will lose almost it's entire export market, and hence a plentiful source of income. This will affect Ukraine for several years, even if they win within the next year. This is Putin's, if I can't have have it - I'll have at least burnt it to the ground.

As @K1052 pointed out, the only real option is to give the UAF the weapons needed to turn the port at Sevastopol into a pile of rubble. They don't have the means to take out the Russian Black Sea Fleet. NATO could do it in a few hours, but that would be a direct act of war.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
34,070
8,085
136
I hope we can help Ukraine bolster the AD of ports.
That would require taking Crimea, before the ports and the Black Sea can be secured.
We can make that happen.
We need to make that happen.

Russians destroy 60,000 tonnes of grain in Chornomorsk port

In the port of Chornomorsk, 60,000 tonnes of grain were destroyed, which was to be loaded onto a large cargo vessel and shipped through the Black Sea Grain Corridor 60 days ago.
Much of the grain export infrastructure of the port of Chornomorsk was also put out of action. Experts have estimated that it will take at least a year to fully restore the affected facilities.
Solskyi added that the grain infrastructure of international and Ukrainian traders and carriers Kernel, Viterra and CMA CGM Group suffered the most.
The minister has pointed out once again that if Ukraine is unable to export food, the population of the poorest countries will be on the verge of survival. In addition, the global economy will suffer.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,246
37,676
136
I hope we can help Ukraine bolster the AD of ports. Seems like focusing on them now is the logical course for Putin as it inflicts the most pain on the world and Ukraine. Perhaps destabilizing the middle east again will divert Western resources, money and attention?

Sub skippers dying from lead poisoning, drone attacks on ships in Sevastopol, Kerch playing catch again. Good to see Ukraine keeping the Black Sea fleet in it's crosshairs. I'd prefer to keep Russia bleeding, focus on nullifying their efforts towards ports and grain shipments, but if they send in the Kilos for some precision sinking attempts it might need to be open season time on the Black Sea: if it's Russian, it goes to the bottom. Turkey and NATO are certainly prepared for it.

Putin adding widespread famine and another Arab Spring to his list of achievements means a lot more dead people, will hinder the defense of Ukraine as well. We shouldn't allow it.

I think we should loan Ukraine PAC-2 Patriot systems until their own new systems come off the production line. Short and medium range AD is more of an issue since there are only so many systems however we could find a munition like RIM-66 to adapt and replenish their S-300s until they get more IRIS-Ts.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,246
37,676
136
So far looks like Russia is still going to ignore traffic headed for the Bystore canal. Likely due to the proximity of Romania and the odds that a mistake with major negative consequences could transpire if they start trying to missile those ships.

Ukraine should also declare reciprocal considerations on all traffic headed to Russian Black Sea ports.
 

Dave_5k

Golden Member
May 23, 2017
1,927
3,691
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We need to give Ukraine everything we have other than nuclear .
Handing over carrier strike groups, like the 6th fleet in the Med, might be a tad too far.

But two or three squadrons of F-16's this summer including anti-ship missiles, with later promise of F-35's, half of the US ATACMS inventory (which is far less impressive than it sounds, but should be in process of being changed over to new precision strike missile anyway), another 100 HIMARS along with 20,000 or so more GMLRS should be well within the range of reasonable and easily doable.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,109
136
Handing over carrier strike groups, like the 6th fleet in the Med, might be a tad too far.

But two or three squadrons of F-16's this summer including anti-ship missiles, with later promise of F-35's, half of the US ATACMS inventory (which is far less impressive than it sounds, but should be in process of being changed over to new precision strike missile anyway), another 100 HIMARS along with 20,000 or so more GMLRS should be well within the range of reasonable and easily doable.
Unfortuately, the F-16s are 6+ months away from being used operationally in Ukraine:

F-16 fighter jets may arrive in Ukraine during the first quarter of 2024, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in an interview the Ukrainian branch of RFE/RL on July 12.


F-35, IDK - I'm going to with never right now.
 
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RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
2,063
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Turkey needs to implement a 'no sail zone' over the black sea - with the exception of grain ships.
 
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