Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
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Why does everyone keep mentioning that Russia is a nuclear armed country?

Big deal.

Putin wants Ukraine intact. A nuclear destroyed nation does him no good. Russia can bomb as many Ukrainian cities as it wants, although there will be some casualties if its aircraft are shot down.

However, Putin wants to take over a Ukraine that still has functioning industries, a working transportation system and sustainable agriculture producers.

Nuclear devastation would certainly damage that scenario,

Putin may be able to give others pause because of its nuclear arsenal. But he needs to understand the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction.
Because there's a certain level of technological progress and industrial competence that's implied by being a nuclear nation. What Russia is presenting is the efforts of a third world dictator with rusty cold world garbage.

Given the presentation of this invasion, one has to question how much effort has gone into maintenance of those nukes.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
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This is not actually how Russia works. As I said before if Putin tried to order a first strike on the west over something like this he would be overthrown and/or killed.

People often think that dictators are all powerful in their countries but this is wrong. They rely on support from key power players to stay on the throne.
Sure sure, key power players that gets flown off buildings if they dont obey command.
You really think there is any of that structure left? And the Ukraine invasion still pushed forward? I am gonna put my money on NO.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
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Putin has to be now realizing that Viktor is not just corrupt, he is not honestly corrupt - he doesn’t stay bribed
Viktor must have had looked at this and thought that Putin’s gonna lose this one. Even without a SWIFT block.
 

eelw

Diamond Member
Dec 4, 1999
9,828
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Why does everyone keep mentioning that Russia is a nuclear armed country?

Big deal.

Putin wants Ukraine intact. A nuclear destroyed nation does him no good. Russia can bomb as many Ukrainian cities as it wants, although there will be some casualties if its aircraft are shot down.
It's not the fear he'd use a nuke in Ukraine. It's if he is stupid enough to launch one to say Switzerland the rest of the world is afraid of. As you said, mutually assured destruction
 

uclaLabrat

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2007
5,586
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Serious question...how many Russian missiles would make it out of their silos? Enough to matter I'm sure but I'm curious.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,246
37,661
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As far as a number of Putin's chums in Europe abandoning him: they know a losing bet when they see one.

Getting sideways with the US and major EU powers not an option right now. Plus the baggage from WWII and the Soviet era painting Putin's acts in the worst possible light.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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Sure sure, key power players that gets flown off buildings if they dont obey command.
You really think there is any of that structure left? And the Ukraine invasion still pushed forward? I am gonna put my money on NO.
100%, zero doubts. This isn’t just true for Russia this is true for every dictatorship on the planet and has been for all of human history. This is why dictatorships don’t slowly erode, they collapse all at once.

Putin is a guy in a suit - he could be taken out back and shot. He is in power because he controls the support of enough of the people who matter to keep him in power. If he does something insane like a first nuclear strike it’s extremely likely those people decide supporting him isn’t worth it anymore. That’s when he gets arrested or killed.
 
Mar 11, 2004
23,284
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Why does everyone keep mentioning that Russia is a nuclear armed country?

Big deal.

Putin wants Ukraine intact. A nuclear destroyed nation does him no good. Russia can bomb as many Ukrainian cities as it wants, although there will be some casualties if its aircraft are shot down.

However, Putin wants to take over a Ukraine that still has functioning industries, a working transportation system and sustainable agriculture producers.

Nuclear devastation would certainly damage that scenario,

Putin may be able to give others pause because of its nuclear arsenal. But he needs to understand the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction.

That's not where the nukes would be sent, and that's why people are freaking out. Which that's pretty misguided as Russia has zero benefit from using nukes and everything to lose.
 
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[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
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That's not what the nukes would be used for.
The only way I can see a nuke being brought to the equation right now is if it looks like they're basically done for, and Putin is personally pissy enough to just lob one on Kiev, like a 'if I can't have you, nobody can'. I can't really conceive of another circumstance where it'd make sense to him.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
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100%, zero doubts. This isn’t just true for Russia this is true for every dictatorship on the planet and has been for all of human history. This is why dictatorships don’t slowly erode, they collapse all at once.

Putin is a guy in a suit - he could be taken out back and shot. He is in power because he controls the support of enough of the people who matter to keep him in power. If he does something insane like a first nuclear strike it’s extremely likely those people decide supporting him isn’t worth it anymore. That’s when he gets arrested or killed.
Well, hope you are right.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
34,067
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1 of 2 things needs to happen. Either the US is the world global police OR cut ties to the global economy and 100% domestic manufacturing and energy.

That is not the alternative if we abandon the world.
A century or two later, the "world" will come knocking for OUR surrender. Because it'll be overtaken and united under an enemy banner.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
15,363
13,689
146
That is not the alternative if we abandon the world.
A century or two later, the "world" will come knocking for OUR surrender. Because it'll be overtaken and united under an enemy banner.
Like true. Isolationism has only ever brought ruin to empires.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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Sounds like German resistance to opening Europe's arsenals to Ukraine is evaporating.

A lot of the arms on the continent came out of German factories so even if it belongs to like Estonia or whoever now the Germans have to approve before they can transfer it, which they had not before. US made weapons already seem to be flowing into the country.

Edit for linkage:


Looks like maybe the Panzerfaust 3 anti-armor RPG.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
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Turkey blocking the Black Sea is not a joke. That's a major escalation, in fact could be seen as an act of war by Russia. God help us all.
Well well well…. even our own backyard autocrat wannabes is reading the room. Lets hope this is a thing.
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
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The only way I can see a nuke being brought to the equation right now is if it looks like they're basically done for, and Putin is personally pissy enough to just lob one on Kiev, like a 'if I can't have you, nobody can'. I can't really conceive of another circumstance where it'd make sense to him.

A few weeks of conventional bombardment will do the same thing.