Russia annexing more of Georgia, NATO acknowledges warfare in Baltic States

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irishScott

irishScott

Lifer
Oct 10, 2006
21,562
3
0
rudder said:
The baltic states have minimal defense budgets. Their main defense strategy is to rely on NATO and the military power of the U.S. It would depend on whether Putin really believes NATO would defend those countries because it would not take much effort by Russia to take them over.
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I hope our government isn't stupid enough to let Russia invade a NATO member. It would render the entire alliance meaningless at its core, and NATO is still too important to US interests to sacrifice.
 
rudder

rudder

Lifer
Nov 9, 2000
19,441
86
91
irishScott said:
I hope our government isn't stupid enough to let Russia invade a NATO member. It would render the entire alliance meaningless at its core, and NATO is still too important to US interests to sacrifice.
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I agree and don't think the U.S. or NATO could ignore that. But I do think Putin is ruthless and insane and no telling what the voices in his head are telling him to do.
 
K1052

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
47,879
36,876
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cabri said:
Ukraine has flipped twice recently; all it takes is economy, money and bribes to get something done.
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The Baltic states have been EU and NATO members for over 10 years. The their internal political landscapes are not at all comparable to Ukraine and are much less susceptible to Russian influence.
 
K1052

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
47,879
36,876
136
rudder said:
The baltic states have minimal defense budgets. Their main defense strategy is to rely on NATO and the military power of the U.S. It would depend on whether Putin really believes NATO would defend those countries because it would not take much effort by Russia to take them over.
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Most of them admit that the best that they can expect is to delay Russian forces until NATO assets can be brought to bear. Commitment to NATO defense is one of the bedrock principles of US foreign and military policy. There is no indication that the President or Congress is going to fold on this issue.
 
norseamd

norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
13,990
180
106
rudder said:
I agree and don't think the U.S. or NATO could ignore that. But I do think Putin is ruthless and insane and no telling what the voices in his head are telling him to do.
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Well if you think he is bad then I would hate to see who else could possibly come to power in Muscovy.
 
zinfamous

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,095
30,038
146
K1052 said:
An extremely unlikely course of events in these countries.
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Well, Latvians have been on edge for the better part of 3 years now, ever since the Russian party won the local legislature in Riga--including the Mayor's seat.

Last October, in national elections, the Russian party actually pulled out a slight majority, that I think was eventually corrected to a very-near 2nd place of all parties for the national Saima (their parliament).

However, the two major popular/nationalist parties, who tend to hate each other, formed a coalition to take up a majority of seats, lest Russians gain too much influence.

http://www.neweasterneurope.eu/interviews/1356-usakovs-has-riga-latvians-have-the-government

What's worrisome is that the pro-Russian party has been steadily gaining traction over recent years, as Putin has been pumping RT propaganda full stop. The difference between the two cultures could not be more stark, in fact. The majority of each population keeps themselves so isolated that they rarely have any knowledge of the majority news/pop culture of the other group.
 
norseamd

norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
13,990
180
106
Well obviously cyber warfare is in but also the Muscovites could support criminal syndicates to do stuff like bank robberies, cybercrime, kidnappings and extortion, arson and sabotage, theft and muggings, financial crime and laundering, business crime and influence, and generally anything to cause major chaos in the Baltics especially with their economies and societies. Plus you could see mysterious explosions of important buildings in the night along with lots of propaganda like graffiti and leaflets along with newer types of propaganda like social networking projects and grassroots type propaganda so the possible tools to wage war are amazing.
 
MongGrel

MongGrel

Lifer
Dec 3, 2013
38,466
3,067
121
rudder said:
I agree and don't think the U.S. or NATO could ignore that. But I do think Putin is ruthless and insane and no telling what the voices in his head are telling him to do.
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Angela Merkel knows him pretty well and said he was going off the deep end a many years ago to begin with I believe.

I think I posted somewhere the other day he's pretty becoming a modern day Russian version of Ronald Reagan atm, and going to start another serious cold war.
 
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bshole

bshole

Diamond Member
Mar 12, 2013
8,315
1,215
126
MongGrel said:
Angela Merkel knows him pretty well and said he was going off the deep end a many years ago to begin with I believe.

I think I posted somewhere the other day he's pretty becoming a modern day Russian version of Ronald Reagan atm, and going to start another serious cold war.
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Good grief dude. That is simply delusional thinking. That is not going to happen, it just isn't. Russia's economy is way too dependent on western trade for that. Putin is smart enough to realize that a cold war would do nothing but empower China (the 10,000 lb gorilla right in his back yard) while innervating Russia. Noice fear mongering though.
 
werepossum

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
bshole said:
Good grief dude. That is simply delusional thinking. That is not going to happen, it just isn't. Russia's economy is way too dependent on western trade for that. Putin is smart enough to realize that a cold war would do nothing but empower China (the 10,000 lb gorilla right in his back yard) while innervating Russia. Noice fear mongering though.
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For Putin, the Cold War never ended. It just took him awhile to get the oil and natural gas industries powerful enough for other nations to notice him again. As for the Russian economy being "way too dependent on western trade", we've already seen him butcher the Russian economy just for pieces of Ukraine. He'll likely risk war for the Baltics, especially if he can do it before the West figures out a unified response.
 
K1052

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
47,879
36,876
136
werepossum said:
He'll likely risk war for the Baltics, especially if he can do it before the West figures out a unified response.
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Well since he'll have to start blowing up US tanks crewed by US soldiers to do it I think we can safely assume our response will be missiles and bombs, promptly delivered.

I doubt he'll do it though as the risk is unthinkably large for such a small prize.
 
zinfamous

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,095
30,038
146
K1052 said:
Well since he'll have to start blowing up US tanks crewed by US soldiers to do it I think we can safely assume our response will be missiles and bombs, promptly delivered.

I doubt he'll do it though as the risk is unthinkably large for such a small prize.
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Russia still wants that access port that doesn't freeze. It is their white wale, and something that the USSR had only with Latvia under occupation.

Putin is a psychopath, and he's clearly been working the internal justification angle for years now. I think everyone agrees that such a decision would be a disaster for Russia, but we are talking about Putin, here.
 
K1052

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
47,879
36,876
136
zinfamous said:
Russia still wants that access port that doesn't freeze. It is their white wale, and something that the USSR had only with Latvia under occupation.

Putin is a psychopath, and he's clearly been working the internal justification angle for years now. I think everyone agrees that such a decision would be a disaster for Russia, but we are talking about Putin, here.
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The risk that the conflict could broaden and escalate out of control is far too great to for any gain. Reasons neither NATO or the Soviets ever elected to engage in direct conflict. He'd have to start killing American soldiers in the opening moves and there is no scenario that ends favorably for Russia in that.
 
M

maddogchen

Diamond Member
Feb 17, 2004
8,903
2
76
I think Russia should take on Sweden next and make a grab for Gotland. make it a huge naval base and you control the Baltic sea. Also you avoid NATO.
 
norseamd

norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
13,990
180
106
maddogchen said:
I think Russia should take on Sweden next and make a grab for Gotland. make it a huge naval base and you control the Baltic sea. Also you avoid NATO.
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First off not the EU and thus NATO would now get involved in the conflict. However NATO would join the Swedish and Finnish in any war regardless considering they are de facto Western countries.
 
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