Russia annexing more of Georgia, NATO acknowledges warfare in Baltic States

[K1052]

The issue raised is the same of those that came before. Russia attacks a country, we bend over and ask them if they want any more.

What NATO countries has he attacked?

 

[norseamd]

More bickering.

 

[Meghan54]

The issue raised is the same of those that came before. Russia attacks a country, we bend over and ask them if they want any more.

At least Obama has been consistent in dealing with Russian "annexation" of former satellite states, following Bush's playbook of inaction during the Russo-Georgian War of 2008.

 

[Jaskalas]

What NATO countries has he attacked?

The chatter over Crimea included much in the way of... how unwise it would be to provoke Russia. Cannot risk war, etc... Putin's choice of target does not change those calculations.

My purpose is to chide and demean the voices who insist we must not confront the Russian threat.

 

[norseamd]

My purpose is to chide and demean the voices who insist we must not confront the Russian threat.

Far leftists have been willing to support the ignorant route but so have far right fundamentalists. It is amazing how a paranoid narcissistic dwarf can bring together such supposedly opposite partisans.

 

[irishScott]

The chatter over Crimea included much in the way of... how unwise it would be to provoke Russia. Cannot risk war, etc... Putin's choice of target does not change those calculations.

My purpose is to chide and demean the voices who insist we must not confront the Russian threat.

It's a simple cost-benefit analysis. If he attacked a NATO or other closely allied country our core reputation would be on the line. As it is no one really gives a fuck about Ukraine, and we give even less of one about Georgia. Just the way the world works.

 

[Blanky]

NATO can't, won't do shit to help non-NATO countries. If those countries are not already part of Russia, too bad. They can either watch themselves fall or become de facto puppets. If I were a country in that region and wanted sovereignty I'd be clamoring for NATO membership now. Russia has proven it respects nothing but threat of an ass-kicking. I do still hope NATO never gets tested by Russia for all our sakes.

 

[K1052]

The chatter over Crimea included much in the way of... how unwise it would be to provoke Russia. Cannot risk war, etc... Putin's choice of target does not change those calculations.

My purpose is to chide and demean the voices who insist we must not confront the Russian threat.

Choice of target most definitely does change calculations. NATO cannot act to defend non-aligned nations and the US can't act against Russia unilaterally to precipitate a conflict that could easily drag europe in against it's will. There are options on the table to help Ukraine further within out preview like arms shipments and intelligence that should be more closely considered.

The US confronts the Russian threat by bolstering NATO defenses (in progress) and continuing economic sanctions that are helping sink their economy.

 

[zinfamous]

The Baltic states are member states of NATO. I doubt Putin is dumb enough to take things to that level. Looks to me like he's tidying up Russia's borders where it's relatively easy to do so.

He's been waging a media and social reconditioning campaign in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia for many years now. Each country has a small population of Russians that remain there (largest is ~20% in Latvia)--from their parents and grandparents being forcibly relocated by Stalin--who live in self-isolation in squalid tenement cities, consider themselves pure Russian, and daily resent what they consider a false independence from mother Russia. They are, in fact, bitter that they have to learn these "native languages" and as long as they remain there, Putin uses their "plight" as justification that his Russian people are being discriminated against in foreign lands, and he thus needs to intervene.

This is a part of daily life over there, but the majority of press that the west has seen about this is through the lens of RT, and the story of "Russian minorities living under oppression." This couldn't be further from the truth, really, as the untenable! requirements for citizenship that these "suffering" Russians are subject to are no different than what any other nation requires of immigrants.

One serious problem is that the only left-leaning political party in Latvia is primarily Russian; the opposition parties range from hard-right ultra nationalist to staunch conservative. For many left-leaning Latvians, the only option to vote against hardcore nationalists is to vote for the Russian party (essentially Russian citizens of Latvia, that enact policies favorable to Russian immigrants--they want to make Russian an official state language, for one).

This is the same long-term strategy of assimilation that has been going on since the bolsheviks took over...and especially with Stalin: occupy, deport and murder natives, replace with exported peasant Russians. After several generations of forced relocation, you now have a "native population" of minority citizens that need your protection, and thus authorization to invade and occupy.

This is exactly how Putin justified his invasion of South Osetia. Georgia is no more a historical Russian state than Manhattan is a historical Chinese colony. Stalin being a Georgian helps to maintain this myth, of course.

 

[cubby1223]

I'd be interested in finding out more, a good friend's fiance's mother is Ukranian, born in Kiev, father is Russian born in Tallsin, Estonia, where she was also born. Just going on hearsay, she says Russians have a difficult time obtaining legal Estonian citizen documentation, in part because the native population doesn't want the past repeated where Russia takes control of the country by a numbers game. Without the documentation it's difficult to obtain employment, certainly difficult to travel. My friend's fiance, despite being half-Russian, is very much so opposed to the Russian aggression and their propaganda, so I don't know what to make of it all, what the truth is in those regions.

Either way, the big issue is, Russia is eying those territories, how is anyone going to stop them? Creating wars like in Ukraine is not smart, as even if you win the country is left devastated and torn apart into many fractions.

And as we have learned in our many wars, both in the Middle East, and even Vietnam is a good example, if large numbers within the country are against you, you will not succeed.

I don't know, it's almost a no-win situation. If you are nice to the ethnic Russian immigrants, Russia with the help of Propaganda still wins the numbers game and eventually annexes your country. If you are not nice to the ethnic Russians, Russia comes in in defense and annexes your country anyways. The only remaining option is a change in Russian leadership, but not just the leader, it has to be a wholesale change throughout the entire system. Sanctions do nothing productive. The only other option is one the world may never be ready to begin.

(I just don't see the NATO stamp as a deterrent against Russia's methods, nor effective in stopping what Russia is planning)

 

[K1052]

(I just don't see the NATO stamp as a deterrent against Russia's methods, nor effective in stopping what Russia is planning)

Without direct Russian military involvement their methodology doesn't work.

Obama went to the Baltics personally and explicitly reiterated NATO's (and most importantly the US by clear extension of his presence) commitment to the preservation of territorial integrity and protection for all members. He specifically names Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania. The military is progressively moving more men and equipment back to central europe and into the Baltic region.

 

[cabri]

I thought I saw something where he needed a land route for resupply to the port in Crimea, but haven't really been following it that closely I guess.

The Crimean Peninsula is relying on land connections for most of their electricity and utilities IIRC so they are not getting that much shit from the Ukrainian government.

Russia either is letting or has let a contract for a bridge to be built to Crimea from the mainland.
The bridge is supposed to also be able to support conduits/pipeline for utilities

 

[cabri]

Without direct Russian military involvement their methodology doesn't work.

Obama went to the Baltics personally and explicitly reiterated NATO's (and most importantly the US by clear extension of his presence) commitment to the preservation of territorial integrity and protection for all members. He specifically names Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania. The military is progressively moving more men and equipment back to central europe and into the Baltic region.

Or generate an overthrow/undercut of the government.
It was done in Crimea and Ukraine before that. Undercut the economy first to generate unrest and go from there. Nothing overt; keep the deniability; and the West will believe it until to late.

 

[zinfamous]

I'd be interested in finding out more, a good friend's fiance's mother is Ukranian, born in Kiev, father is Russian born in Tallsin, Estonia, where she was also born. Just going on hearsay, she says Russians have a difficult time obtaining legal Estonian citizen documentation, in part because the native population doesn't want the past repeated where Russia takes control of the country by a numbers game. Without the documentation it's difficult to obtain employment, certainly difficult to travel. My friend's fiance, despite being half-Russian, is very much so opposed to the Russian aggression and their propaganda, so I don't know what to make of it all, what the truth is in those regions.

Either way, the big issue is, Russia is eying those territories, how is anyone going to stop them? Creating wars like in Ukraine is not smart, as even if you win the country is left devastated and torn apart into many fractions.

And as we have learned in our many wars, both in the Middle East, and even Vietnam is a good example, if large numbers within the country are against you, you will not succeed.

I don't know, it's almost a no-win situation. If you are nice to the ethnic Russian immigrants, Russia with the help of Propaganda still wins the numbers game and eventually annexes your country. If you are not nice to the ethnic Russians, Russia comes in in defense and annexes your country anyways. The only remaining option is a change in Russian leadership, but not just the leader, it has to be a wholesale change throughout the entire system. Sanctions do nothing productive. The only other option is one the world may never be ready to begin.

(I just don't see the NATO stamp as a deterrent against Russia's methods, nor effective in stopping what Russia is planning)

The difficulties in obtaining Estonian/Latvian/Lithuanian citizenship, as a Russian, really aren't any different than any immigrant obtaining US citizenship.

There is a language test, history test, nearly identical requirements for obtaining passport, and you need to renounce primary citizenship (Latvia only recently implemented dual citizenship).

Thing is, what is made "difficult" is, indeed, expressly made that way due to historic Russian aggression. Any policy that was established was certainly done so to limit Russian cultural influence within their sovereign nation. That being said, there is nothing about their policies that would be considered more stringent than in any other western nation. It is only considered stringent because those Russians believe that they have every right to speak only in Russian when buying groceries in public, and should be serviced in such a way.

A lot of this is changing, though--most of the animosity comes from the older generation that refuses to let go of the USSR. Their kids and now grandkids tend to be more progressive. They already know the language anyway, they certainly don't want to go to school in Russia or leave what they consider their home, so they are perfectly fine learning the local nation.

 

[zinfamous]

Without direct Russian military involvement their methodology doesn't work.

Obama went to the Baltics personally and explicitly reiterated NATO's (and most importantly the US by clear extension of his presence) commitment to the preservation of territorial integrity and protection for all members. He specifically names Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania. The military is progressively moving more men and equipment back to central europe and into the Baltic region.

The US sent a couple hundred Bradly's and APCs into the Baltics 2 weeks ago. (might even be 1000; I forget)

I believe this amounts to the largest NATO/US presence since joining NATO...I believe around 1993 or 94?

 

[K1052]

Or generate an overthrow/undercut of the government.
It was done in Crimea and Ukraine before that. Undercut the economy first to generate unrest and go from there. Nothing overt; keep the deniability; and the West will believe it until to late.

And when the government forces came in and were rolling back the "separatists" (who were equipped by Russia) Russia intervened directly. There was no deniability, only misinformation put out by the Kremlin that really only Russians believed.

 

[K1052]

The US sent a couple hundred Bradly's and APCs into the Baltics 2 weeks ago. (might even be 1000; I forget)

I believe this amounts to the largest NATO/US presence since joining NATO...I believe around 1993 or 94?

They sent about 100 Bradley and Abrams to the Baltics so far to participate in exercises, that level of activity is unprecedented. The US has started rebuilding capability in Germany with the return of heavy tanks, equipment, supplies, and recently A-10 aircraft. US Patriot missile batteries have also been moved into Poland.

Several of the Baltic nations are currently seeking surplus equipment or to purchase heavy weapons outright for cash from other Euro countries stockpiles. Sales which will likely be expedited. Lithuania has reintroduced the draft and has prepped domestic plans to hold out for set amounts of time until NATO assets can be brought to bear.

 

[norseamd]

Obama went to the Baltics personally and explicitly reiterated NATO's (and most importantly the US by clear extension of his presence) commitment to the preservation of territorial integrity and protection for all members. He specifically names Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania. The military is progressively moving more men and equipment back to central europe and into the Baltic region.

And the Russians crossed into Estonia while Obama was there and kidnapped an Estonian security official. Like I said earlier Putin might go for a more civilian and intelligence type conflict instead of this huge military insurgency in Ukraine fully visible to everyone.

 

[K1052]

And the Russians crossed into Estonia while Obama was there and kidnapped an Estonian security official. Like I said earlier Putin might go for a more civilian and intelligence type conflict instead of this huge military insurgency in Ukraine fully visible to everyone.

They can hassle the baltic nations with that but there is no way they can pull a Crimea/eastern Ukraine/Georgia type action without rolling tanks and troops.

 

[cabri]

They can hassle the baltic nations with that but there is no way they can pull a Crimea/eastern Ukraine/Georgia type action without rolling tanks and troops.

A Simple change of government into a puppet and then an invite of assistance for a manufactured crisis or joint exercises.

 

[master_shake_]

putin is a smart guy.

hes trying to get the sweet sweet 7 bonus armies.

good luck protecting kamchatka.

 

[sm625]

Let's hope the Georgian president doesnt eat his tie this time:

Yes, it really happened.

 

[K1052]

A Simple change of government into a puppet and then an invite of assistance for a manufactured crisis or joint exercises.

An extremely unlikely course of events in these countries.

 

[cabri]

An extremely unlikely course of events in these countries.

Ukraine has flipped twice recently; all it takes is economy, money and bribes to get something done.

 

[rudder]

They can hassle the baltic nations with that but there is no way they can pull a Crimea/eastern Ukraine/Georgia type action without rolling tanks and troops.

The baltic states have minimal defense budgets. Their main defense strategy is to rely on NATO and the military power of the U.S. It would depend on whether Putin really believes NATO would defend those countries because it would not take much effort by Russia to take them over.