Question RTX 4090 Rumored to cost 2999.99

[aigomorla]

I'm not buying the $2,999 GeForce RTX 4090 price prediction, but should I?

The GeForce RTX 4090 will undoubtedly command top dollar, but here's hoping it doesn't cost twice as much as the 3090.

www.pcgamer.com

Sigh... if that is a true price... i just have nothing to say.

Absolutely nothing to say, as i don't know if i should laugh, cry, or scream.

 

[DrMrLordX]

No, you keep talking about BTC/ETH, but there are lots of other coins that still use POW. ETH is dominant right now but it may not stay that way forever. I would in fact argue it has less room for big appreciation at this point compared to some of the smaller or newer coins (remember that miners are not just getting cashflow from mining, but speculating on the future appreciation of these coins). I don't see the GPU impact going away anytime soon without some kind of LHR-type solution.

Speaking of LHR and "other" AltCoins... MANY LHR 30-series GPUs are ALREADY mining Raven/Ergo/Conflux, and NOT ETH. So some of that hashrate, has already transitioned, since it's actually MORE profitable to mine those other coins, than to mine ETH on hashrate-limited cards.

I don't think either one of you have run the numbers. ETH mining is still huge. If everyone mining ETH stopped one day and pointed all their cards at NiceHash, mining rewards would plummet; additionally, PoS will be a competitor for investors in the future who are looking to expand mining operations or get started with mining. Can you guarantee a 6% return on your money spent on power, infrastructure, and dGPUs? PoS is relatively low-risk unless ETH itself crashes (and that is also a risk for mining operations).

 

[sze5003]

It's not surprising prices may go up. This is the trend. People are willing to pay scalper prices, they have all seen this. If it was not for the evga elite queue I wouldn't have a gpu. I'll check back in when the 60 or 70 series is here. By then, I feel like a lot of people will just game on consoles.

Also the new consoles will have put out more than just remasters or remakes.

 

[jpiniero]

It's not surprising prices may go up. This is the trend. People are willing to pay scalper prices, they have all seen this. If it was not for the evga elite queue I wouldn't have a gpu. I'll check back in when the 60 or 70 series is here. By then, I feel like a lot of people will just game on consoles.

Also the new consoles will have put out more than just remasters or remakes.

There's certinately a question as to whether gamers are really paying the scalper prices. Miners OTOH...

 

[fleshconsumed]

Miners excluded, some gamers will pay scalper prices because they can afford, some gamers will pay scalper prices because they hope to offset the scalper cost by mining, and some will just wait until prices return to sanity.

I bet the former group that will pay higher prices just because they can is rather small, and I would bet the last two groups are the majority. The 3070 FE I purchased was rather poor value proposition by itself, the only reason I got it is because I could get it for MSRP, because I could mine when I'm not gaming, and because someone purchased my rx480 for stupid amount of money. 20XX series didn't sell well because it was abundant in supply and because it was overpriced on performance/dollar metric compared to 10xx series. There is no reason to think that absent mining 40xx would sell well if nVidia jacked up the prices, especially considering that ebay is going to be flooded with cheap ass 30 series.

 

[sze5003]

Miners excluded, some gamers will pay scalper prices because they can afford, some gamers will pay scalper prices because they hope to offset the scalper cost by mining, and some will just wait until prices return to sanity.

I bet the former group that will pay higher prices just because they can is rather small, and I would bet the last two groups are the majority. The 3070 FE I purchased was rather poor value proposition by itself, the only reason I got it is because I could get it for MSRP, because I could mine when I'm not gaming, and because someone purchased my rx480 for stupid amount of money. 20XX series didn't sell well because it was abundant in supply and because it was overpriced on performance/dollar metric compared to 10xx series. There is no reason to think that absent mining 40xx would sell well if nVidia jacked up the prices, especially considering that ebay is going to be flooded with cheap ass 30 series.

Definitely makes more sense. The whole market went upsidedown. I sold my 4 year old 1080ti for the same amount I purchased it after I finally was able to get the 3080Ti a bit under msrp using some EVGA coupon codes. I will miss that card, it was such a trooper.

My current card gets as hot as a Louisiana cookout, also caused my older power supply to trip it's ocp protection so I will have to update that too. The crazy thing is the 40 series are rumored to consume even more power and run hotter.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Definitely makes more sense. The whole market went upsidedown. I sold my 4 year old 1080ti for the same amount I purchased it after I finally was able to get the 3080Ti a bit under msrp using some EVGA coupon codes. I will miss that card, it was such a trooper.

My current card gets as hot as a Louisiana cookout, also caused my older power supply to trip it's ocp protection so I will have to update that too. The crazy thing is the 40 series are rumored to consume even more power and run hotter.

Trade you my 1660ti which runs cool & quiet.

 

[moonbogg]

Miners excluded, some gamers will pay scalper prices because they can afford, some gamers will pay scalper prices because they hope to offset the scalper cost by mining, and some will just wait until prices return to sanity.

I bet the former group that will pay higher prices just because they can is rather small, and I would bet the last two groups are the majority. The 3070 FE I purchased was rather poor value proposition by itself, the only reason I got it is because I could get it for MSRP, because I could mine when I'm not gaming, and because someone purchased my rx480 for stupid amount of money. 20XX series didn't sell well because it was abundant in supply and because it was overpriced on performance/dollar metric compared to 10xx series. There is no reason to think that absent mining 40xx would sell well if nVidia jacked up the prices, especially considering that ebay is going to be flooded with cheap ass 30 series.

I honestly believe the majority of gamers paying scalper prices are simply people who want the card and use a credit card to buy it. Same as it's always been. People run on instinct and often just go for what they want if the consequences aren't too severe. Running up some debt can catch up to you, but it's really not that severe in the near term, so people do it. Getting something you really want right now and dealing with it later is an emotional weakness that credit card companies have preyed on for many decades. It works. The problem for more reasonable people (most of them being older) is they aren't willing to compete on price with the impulsive ones, so they end up going without because that's the only reasonable thing to do in a situation like this.
If credit card purchases were banned for a week, GPU prices would fall below MSRP around that time or shortly after, because there aren't enough people paying with real money to buy what's currently available. This doesn't include mining firms with millions to spend of course.

 

[fleshconsumed]

I honestly believe the majority of gamers paying scalper prices are simply people who want the card and use a credit card to buy it. Same as it's always been. People run on instinct and often just go for what they want if the consequences aren't too severe. Running up some debt can catch up to you, but it's really not that severe in the near term, so people do it. Getting something you really want right now and dealing with it later is an emotional weakness that credit card companies have preyed on for many decades. It works. The problem for more reasonable people (most of them being older) is they aren't willing to compete on price with the impulsive ones, so they end up going without because that's the only reasonable thing to do in a situation like this.
If credit card purchases were banned for a week, GPU prices would fall below MSRP around that time or shortly after, because there aren't enough people paying with real money to buy what's currently available. This doesn't include mining firms with millions to spend of course.

There is some truth to that, my boss's son got 2070 super mid 2019 well.... just because he really really wanted it and he's only a college junior/sophomore without good steady income, and I remember myself salivating over $400-500 6800 GT/Ultra years back when Farcry 1 came out wanting to get one just to max it out. Ironically I am much more conservative with my money now despite having tons more disposable income. Anecdotes aside, current pricing is a historical abnormality driven by ETH price peaking at $4000 couple months ago. You don't have to go too far back to see what the normal market is like - again, 20XX series didn't sell well because it came with zero improvement on price/performance metric. I get tired of saying it, but I do think pricing will come back to reality once ETH goes PoS. AMD provides competitive performance now, and Intel might even enter GPU market, the only real danger I see is supply constrained by TSMC capacity.

 

[VirtualLarry]

Algorithimically, there's got to be some sort of meta-analysis here.

Gov't prints more money, gives it away (to either regular citizens, or bankers), which gets put into crypto, either coins directly, or mining gear. For the average joe, more likely to be mining gear.

GPU buying up because of influx of money, prices go higher due to limited supply of GPUs, which is generally limited to TSMC's and Samsung's wafer/die output for AMD and NVidia.

Normally, mining is set up, such that it reaches a sort-of barely-profitable equilibrium, because more miners means less block rewards per individual, constrained by their hash-power. Bur coin value in FIAT also means that when coin valuation goes up, due to FIAT money going into that coin, that the mining equalibrium gets moved upwards, because each coin "slice" is now worth more FIAT dollars, thus offsetting the eventual equalibrium.

But if GPU supply is constrained, then that self-limiting mining-reward equalibrium may not be reached. And if the Gov't keeps printing money, that's going to push the value of the coins (for those directly investing in them) higher and higher, and thus, justifying higher and higher prices for the GPUs, which the gov't money-printing is also fueling. And the cycle repeats!

So, in short, possibly as long as either, or both, of these are true, that the gov'ts of the world keep printing money, and/or the fabs are capacity-constrained (or even downstream, like substrates and VRMs and caps and stuff), then this vicious cycle will NOT let up. Heaven help us. Welcome to the Crypto cycle hell.

Well, there's always "The Merge" (ETH 2.0, aka PoS) to kill off the vast majority of mining. That's hope. (Well, for you non-miners. For me it's going to suck.)

Edit: Also, NVidia's LHR cards, only prolong this cycle, preventing the mining-reward equalibrium being reached, and requiring TWICE AS MANY cards to be produced and sold, to reach the same equvalibrium point. Good for NVidia's sales, I guess.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Well, there's always "The Merge" (ETH 2.0, aka PoS) to kill off the vast majority of mining. That's hope. (Well, for you non-miners. For me it's going to suck.)

Let's put this matter in perspective:

Current Ethereum miner hashrate is 703.61 TH/s. An RX480 can sustain 29.3 MH/s (normally). Looking at NiceHash, the algo with the most miners is DaggerHashimoto with a combined hashrate of 48.0015 TH/s. An RX480 can sustain 30.29 MH/s in this algorithm.

There is the equivalent of ~1.59 million RX 480s mining DaggerHashimoto. There is the equivalent of 24.01 million RX 480s mining Ethereum. If, after Ethereum 2.0, all the hypothetical RX 480s mining Ethereum directly switch to DaggerHashimoto, rewards for that algo would drop to less than 1% of current rewards. There's really no dGPU algo running right now that can absorb that much hashpower.

 

[VirtualLarry]

Let's put this matter in perspective:

Current Ethereum miner hashrate is 703.61 TH/s. An RX480 can sustain 29.3 MH/s (normally). Looking at NiceHash, the algo with the most miners is DaggerHashimoto with a combined hashrate of 48.0015 TH/s. An RX480 can sustain 30.29 MH/s in this algorithm.

There is the equivalent of ~1.59 million RX 480s mining DaggerHashimoto. There is the equivalent of 24.01 million RX 480s mining Ethereum. If, after Ethereum 2.0, all the hypothetical RX 480s mining Ethereum directly switch to DaggerHashimoto, rewards for that algo would drop to less than 1% of current rewards. There's really no dGPU algo running right now that can absorb that much hashpower.

You might want to re-compute that. "DaggerHashimoto" IS ETH mining.

 

[psolord]

I have hashimoto and I take T4 for that. Does that count?

Mom can we get daggerhashimoto? No we have hashimoto at home!

 

[DrMrLordX]

You might want to re-compute that. "DaggerHashimoto" IS ETH mining.

Hah so it is. I had forgotten about that. Sadly, that makes the situation actually worse, since that represents another mining target that will be gone once ETH 2.0 rolls out.

So what would they mine? Hmm.

Ergo: Network hashrate of 29.7 TH/s. Hypothetical 480s mining that would crush Ergo and drive up difficulty by a staggering amount. That would bring ~1370 TH/s of extra hashrate to Ergo. Yow! Rewards would drop to .2% of current levels.
RavenCoin: Network hashrate of 7.94 TH/s. Hypothetical 480s mining that would also be a menace. That's ~230 TH/s extra hashrate for RavenCoin. Rewards would drop to .34% of current levels.
Ethereum Classic: Network hashrate of 24.6 TH/s. Hypothetical 480s mining that would bring a like hashrate of 703.61 TH/s. Rewards would drop to .35% of current levels.

Other possible targets look like Metaverse ETP, Cortex, Firo/Zcoin, and maybe Beam. One should not expect better results there.

The total hashrate of Ethereum dwarfs most other projects that are still profitable to mine on dGPUs. The exact influence of those dGPU miners moving on to other projects will vary (since they aren't all 480s), but the net effect will be the same: loss of profits for miners on a massive scale. If even 1/10th of Ethereum's hashrate falls on Ergo, mining rewards would drop by more than 90% depending on which cards.

 

[aigomorla]

I remember myself salivating over $400-500 6800 GT/Ultra

i do not think i could ever afford a 1000 dollar video card in college period. This is mid level GPU's now.
1000 dollars was i think almost my entire part time job paycheck for the month which i was fortunate to be able to use it all for entertainment.

But still blowing it in 1 purchase, would of made me cough up blood.
1000 dollars i believe was my entire PC budget at that time, and still was for most builds until 2018.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

i do not think i could ever afford a 1000 dollar video card in college period. This is mid level GPU's now.
1000 dollars was i think almost my entire part time job paycheck for the month which i was fortunate to be able to use it all for entertainment.

But still blowing it in 1 purchase, would of made me cough up blood.
1000 dollars i believe was my entire PC budget at the time, and still was until 2018.

I am starting to accept my next card will likely cost more than $300.
With the long life 1080s have had I am starting to think a $1k product that lasts a decade isn’t that bad of a deal.

 

[aigomorla]

I am starting to accept my next card will likely cost more than $300.

hate to break it to ya, but that won't even get you a 1050ti @ current market prices....

 

[Fanatical Meat]

hate to break it to ya, but that won't even get you a 1050ti @ current market prices....

Exactly why I am preparing

 

[VirtualLarry]

Exactly why I am preparing

"Preparing... preparing to mine."

"Someone set us up the difficulty bomb!"

"All your coinbase are mine!!"

"Bwahahaha!!!"

 

[aigomorla]

sigh... looking at this techreport document, i honestly think the price predictions are not off.


Intel also stated that TSMC will be making there gpu's.

Intel provides more details on its Arc GPUs, which will be made by TSMC

Still light on details, but the Arc GPUs will be a big step up from integrated.

arstechnica.com

Well, there goes any cheap GPU's from intel.
TSMC is one of the reasons for price inflation and having them make 90% of most discrete GPU's wont help prices any at our level.

Infact if Intel could make them cheap, even if they didn't perform super well, they would of still sold.
Now if they are garbage and cost as much as a ATI / Nvidia, they really will be garbage, so excuse me when i say i have very little faith in Intel now, especially with this move.

 

[DeathReborn]

Hardware Unboxed have their latest GPU price trend video out, it's not pretty. Basically, miners...

 

[Fanatical Meat]

sigh... looking at this techreport document, i honestly think the price predictions are not off.
View attachment 50545

Intel also stated that TSMC will be making there gpu's.

Intel provides more details on its Arc GPUs, which will be made by TSMC

Still light on details, but the Arc GPUs will be a big step up from integrated.

arstechnica.com

Well, there goes any cheap GPU's from intel.
TSMC is one of the reasons for price inflation and having them make 90% of most discrete GPU's wont help prices any at our level.

Infact if Intel could make them cheap, even if they didn't perform super well, they would of still sold.
Now if they are garbage and cost as much as a ATI / Nvidia, they really will be garbage, so excuse me when i say i have very little faith in Intel now, especially with this move.

Yeah my realistic hope for intel is they offer something around a 3060 performance for $500 with the various markups included.
Honestly if it were readily available at that price I would he happy.

 

[ozzy702]

Do we even have a ballpark of when the 4000 series are supposed to be released?

I still say that by the time 40 series come out ETH will be PoS and there will be no more profit left in mining. These prices won't hold without mining demand. But hey guys, feel free to doom and gloom about it.

Agreed. I doubt that the 4000 series is released before the merge to PoS and the market will be flooded with used miner GPUs the second the merge occurs. 4000 series will still probably be expensive just due to limited fab capacity, but the hysteria is way overblown and not likely to be justified. Miners will be a non-issue for the 4000 series forward.

 

[aigomorla]

Yeah my realistic hope for intel is they offer something around a 3060 performance for $500 with the various markups included.
Honestly if it were readily available at that price I would he happy.

problem is drivers... and keeping up with drivers....
Again, intel not making there own dies, means they too busy with other projects.
Making drivers for games... id expect them to be less frequent then AMD, and that's about half of what Nvidia pulls out.

Im pretty sure intel will focus on miners, and not gamers.
Miners don't need frequent driver updates, gamers do.

 

[moonbogg]

Yep, miners are way better customers than gamers. No comparison at all. A miner will buy many times the number of products that a gamer will. That alone is amazing for GPU companies. But they also are willing to pay THREE TIMES THE PRICE for each card! They don't even ask for a discount for buying tons of cards. They offer MORE money per card! It's an outrageous dream come true for these GPU companies. And then, they don't flood the forums to complain about all kinds of stupid crap like "why are my textures flickering!? You guys are garbage! Fix it now!" No driver updates to mess with. No RMAs to do because they can just say mining voids the warranty. And often times they can just send a massive shipment of GPUs straight to a mining warehouse which cuts down on all sorts of clerical and logistics costs and workload I'm sure.
So yeah, if mining sticks around then I'm pretty sure gamers are going to be completely ignored by these companies as if they never existed.

 

[brianmanahan]

jeez, i remember kicking myself for paying almost 1600$ for a 3090 zotac

at these prices i expect it to be the last GPU i buy in a decade