Question RTX 4000/RX 7000 price speculation thread

[DrMrLordX]

What's stopping someone from just making another mineable coin?

This issue has been discussed in other threads. In short, they won't be able to absorb the available hashpower, driving up difficulty and screwing up rewards for people already mining those tokens. People will be forced for economic reasons to take hashpower offline in order to avoid financial losses.

Assuming Ethereum finally reaches PoS this year, it will have a devastating effect on GPU mining. Prices for the 4xxx series and 7xxx series should be less affected by miners than the previous generation of cards.

At least that's about as much respect as I have for or even care to know about the stupid coins.

If you don't understand them, then why do you even bring them up for discussion?

I'm pretty sure miners and scalpers everywhere will see the hashrate and completely lose their minds and just panic buy all the cards.

Not likely. They're in the game to make money, and they have to compete with scalpers that want to fleece gamers.

 

[moonbogg]

If you don't understand them, then why do you even bring them up for discussion?

If people had to understand something before talking about it, the world would be silent.

 

[DrMrLordX]

If people had to understand something before talking about it, the world would be silent.

Yay for justifying willful ignorance.

 

[Aapje]

4 million of what? If its 3.75 million of the small GPU that they've already been shipping, getting stuffed in low end laptops so it can claim to have a dGPU, then who cares, that's not going to change anything.

No Alchemist chips have formally been announced (although they've said that the bottom tier A370M will be announced on March 30th), they aren't shipping yet, and we have no hard data yet on how well they compare to the competition.

If these chips get used instead of 3050 chips in laptops, then that frees up those 3050 chips for use in desktop GPU's or more laptops can get better graphics.

And you have no idea how many chips better than that will be shipped.

They're gonna ditch GPUs again and make whatever the HPC markets that are their bread and butter, and go back to making small iGPU esque stuff for the OEMs.

Perhaps, but on the other hand, there seems to be a plan for them to find a competitive advantage with multi-die chips that do something similar to SLI, but then with multiple dies on a chip each rendering part of the image. Although that doesn't seem to be part of the upcoming chip.

Google, Amazon, Tesla, etc are designing their own hardware.

Yes, but the CPU's in those system are off the shelf chips. None of those companies have the means to design large chips. Facebook does use modified mobile chip in the Quest 2, but that is a chip designed by Qualcomm for VR/AR systems in general, not a chip tailored specifically to the needs of the Quest 2. For example, the XR2 that Facebook uses in the Quest 2 has 5G support, but that's not actually used, so it's just wasted die space.

Intel's plan is for those companies to be able to order a chip from Intel that has the features they want.

Intel always spends huge money. They spent billions putting LEDs in clothes.

Did they really? I'm assuming that you are referring to Intel Edison, which actually was an IoT platform, which also focused on wearable computing. LEDs in clothes was just a demo.

They put a Intel Atom on a little motherboard, which certainly doesn't cost billions to do, so I'm not sure where you are getting that from.

 

[moonbogg]

The less I know about crypto, the better. It's for my own future benefit. Once the forces of good liberate the world of this evil, I'd hate to be questioned about my knowledge of crypto and be labeled a crypto sympathizer. Perhaps some simply love this parasitic tech-garbage and they can't get enough of shortages and high prices. I think crypto lovers are hoping for $2000 RTX 4080's for some odd reason. The only reason Nvidia will get away with yet another huge price hike is because crypto bros normalized 3x msrp prices for an entire generation of cards. You think a 4080Ti will suddenly fall in line with the likes of 1080Ti or 980Ti now? The $1200 2080Ti was called an anomaly because of ray tracing. Thanks to crypto normalizing high prices, it's not an anomaly; it's the new low end of the upper tier product pricing and this time Nvidia needs no justification. Crypto people justified the price for them.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Does this board have a "Remind me" feature? I feel like this thread will be interesting to return to 3-4 years down the line. Lot of predictions of success and failure getting laid down here.

Kinda like that Google Stadia thread over in PC gaming. Stadia has admittedly stayed alive ever so slightly longer than I predicted, but the priest is at its bedside and is reading its last rites.

 

[moonbogg]

Does this board have a "Remind me" feature? I feel like this thread will be interesting to return to 3-4 years down the line. Lot of predictions of success and failure getting laid down here.

Kinda like that Google Stadia thread over in PC gaming. Stadia has admittedly stayed alive ever so slightly longer than I predicted, but the priest is at its bedside and is reading its last rites.

I wouldn't be surprised if Intel failed to even really launch a desktop card at all. If they just stealth released discrete cards for garbage OEM builds and said nothing about it, that would be about what I'd expect out of them. If they release the cards for the DIY market, I expect their product to get destroyed in an embarrassing way. I understand that Nvidia's pricing is through the roof because they have the market dominance to get away with that. If Intel has something worth buying, Nvidia can easily release something or simply price one of their products at a price so low that no one would consider the Intel offering.
If Intel manages a card that performs like a 3070 and they charge $300, Nvidia can charge $350 for the RTX 4060 and everyone would absolutely crap their pants and buy the 4060. No one's saving 50 bucks to get a first run intel card that probably won't even work. Intel will suck and fail. That's my prediction. After Vega and all the stupid pre-gloating about that card and then watching it suck as bad as it did forces me to expect the same thing again. I feel like this is a thing that money can't fix in the near term. Intel would have to have the grit and determination to get their butt kicked for several generations before being competitive at all. I don't think they have the guts to stick it out.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Once the forces of good liberate the world of this evil

Ah huh.

If Intel manages a card

Sadly they seem to be very late and short on supply. Unless they surprise everyone and launch far more than 4 million units. They won't have much of an impact on market conditions with Alchemist. Definitely not enough to change pricing on low-to-midrange next-gen cards from AMD or NV.

 

[VirtualLarry]

The less I know about crypto, the better. It's for my own future benefit. Once the forces of good liberate the world of this evil, I'd hate to be questioned about my knowledge of crypto and be labeled a crypto sympathizer. Perhaps some simply love this parasitic tech-garbage and they can't get enough of shortages and high prices. I think crypto lovers are hoping for $2000 RTX 4080's for some odd reason. The only reason Nvidia will get away with yet another huge price hike is because crypto bros normalized 3x msrp prices for an entire generation of cards. You think a 4080Ti will suddenly fall in line with the likes of 1080Ti or 980Ti now? The $1200 2080Ti was called an anomaly because of ray tracing. Thanks to crypto normalizing high prices, it's not an anomaly; it's the new low end of the upper tier product pricing and this time Nvidia needs no justification. Crypto people justified the price for them.

It has been rumored, that NVidia will continue to produce 30-series cards contemporaneously with 40-series. Why would that be, UNLESS Nvidia was going to KEEP 30-series pricing at AT LEAST MSRP, and then slot in 40-series ON TOP of the pricing stack, at EVEN MORE premium pricing.

 

[Aapje]

Sadly they seem to be very late and short on supply. Unless they surprise everyone and launch far more than 4 million units. They won't have much of an impact on market conditions with Alchemist. Definitely not enough to change pricing on low-to-midrange next-gen cards from AMD or NV.

If the main issue is with the software, rather than the hardware, as I expect, then they may be building up a supply, but not launching it until they get the software working better.

 

[DrMrLordX]

If the main issue is with the software, rather than the hardware, as I expect, then they may be building up a supply, but not launching it until they get the software working better.

They announced 4 million units of Arc to be shipped this year. That isn't a lot.

 

[CakeMonster]

I think @moonbogg is right about some people hoping for excessive prices because of crypto, its the basic 'get ahead' attitude of those who can afford to make huge investments that pay off, increasing inequality in the long run. Lots of people with that mindset fool themselves and are never even in the economic position to take advantage of the dysfunctional situation though.

I hope Intel is building up a huge stockpile, and just flood the market with decently priced mid and low range cards. They can afford to play the long game, and I would think what they want right now is just to get market share and brand recognition, then come back later with higher end cards. That way they can also get less flack for the inevitably less optimized drivers (its not a dig at them, it should be expected of anyone who only makes IGP), and they can spend 1-2 years getting the drivers sorted out. Slow and steady would be my recommendation to succeed in the graphics market, but I'm certainly no expert.

 

[Aapje]

They announced 4 million units of Arc to be shipped this year. That isn't a lot.

About 13 million desktop video cards are sold a quarter, so if they dump 1-2 million on the market in both Q3 and Q4, that isn't too bad. I think that it is one of the lesser factors that can drive prices down, but it can certainly help.

My guesstimate is that we'll see lowering prices towards the end of the year due to a combination of increased production, less mining, Intel Alchemist and people waiting for next gen. Then once next gen comes, with their allegedly great performance, I can see it going many different ways. AMD might make a huge market share push by buying up lots of production capacity or they might play it relatively safe. Don't know how much of a gambler Lisa Su is. Also, will we get Proof of Stake for Ethereum before next gen and what will the exact impact be? If the 2nd hand market gets flooded with 2000/3000 series, that may put severe price pressure on the low or even mid end of next gen.

We might get a lot of people opting for one of these 2nd hand cards and skipping next gen, reducing the pent-up demand. Or the pent-up demand may be so great that the demand will still greatly outstrip supply, resulting in very high prices for next gen.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

About 13 million desktop video cards are sold a quarter, so if they dump 1-2 million on the market in both Q3 and Q4, that isn't too bad. I think that it is one of the lesser factors that can drive prices down, but it can certainly help.

My guesstimate is that we'll see lowering prices towards the end of the year due to a combination of increased production, less mining, Intel Alchemist and people waiting for next gen. Then once next gen comes, with their allegedly great performance, I can see it going many different ways. AMD might make a huge market share push by buying up lots of production capacity or they might play it relatively safe. Don't know how much of a gambler Lisa Su is. Also, will we get Proof of Stake for Ethereum before next gen and what will the exact impact be? If the 2nd hand market gets flooded with 2000/3000 series, that may put severe price pressure on the low or even mid end of next gen.

We might get a lot of people opting for one of these 2nd hand cards and skipping next gen, reducing the pent-up demand. Or the pent-up demand may be so great that the demand will still greatly outstrip supply, resulting in very high prices for next gen.

-Its 4 million cards across laptop/workstation/desktop AIB. So it's not really 1-2M vs 12M a year, it's a much, much smaller number than that.

If NV/AMD cards come back down to MSRP or if the used market for current gen cards gets going, why the hell would anyone ever take a gamble on an Intel part other than morbid curiosity or pure ignorance?

 

[igor_kavinski]

I never expected Intel to have good iGPU performance in Tiger Lake but they managed to double performance compared to Ice Lake. They are working hard at it. More than they ever have. And this time they actually seem to have poached engineers with relevant experience. It will take time. Maybe few more years. But they will become player no.3 in the GPU space.

The majority doesn't even know about AMD or Nvidia GPUs. There are tons of gamers who just play games on expensive laptops and if it works, they don't care what is underneath the hood. People just look at me weird when I talk about benchmarks. Majority doesn't care. They just want something that works. Intel has a reputation for good QA. Their products don't have serious show stopping quality issues. Their validation testing is right up there at the top. Intel will sell a lot of "Everything Intel Inside" laptops. That's a done deal.

And I'm not saying this because I'm an Intel fan. Intel invests a lot in making reliable stuff. Their SSDs were the first with the lowest failure rates in the industry.

 

[Aapje]

-Its 4 million cards across laptop/workstation/desktop AIB. So it's not really 1-2M vs 12M a year, it's a much, much smaller number than that.

If those Intel GPUs replace Geforce or Radeon mobile chips, that still frees up supply of those. The main exception is if these chips go into systems that otherwise would have an iGPU. If they really mess up, it is possible that Intel will get rid of most of their supply that way, but hopefully it's not that bad.

If NV/AMD cards come back down to MSRP or if the used market for current gen cards gets going, why the hell would anyone ever take a gamble on an Intel part other than morbid curiosity or pure ignorance?

If that happens, then we won't care that much about Intel anyway. If it doesn't happen, Intel may relieve the market a bit.

@igor_kavinski

XeSS is a good sign in this respect, showing that Intel is investing in software as well. I am expecting Intel to really struggle with the drivers, much more so than they anticipated, but they can do it, if they are willing to invest and stick with it.

 

[Mopetar]

It has been rumored, that NVidia will continue to produce 30-series cards contemporaneously with 40-series. Why would that be, UNLESS Nvidia was going to KEEP 30-series pricing at AT LEAST MSRP, and then slot in 40-series ON TOP of the pricing stack, at EVEN MORE premium pricing.

Or the 4000 series will have cripple ware drivers and they'll just sell unlocked 3000 series cards. If they use different processes, making more Ampere cards won't hurt next generation production.

I'm sure NVidia will try to keep prices high, but they'd do that regardless. If people will pay then who am I to argue.

 

[moonbogg]

Or the 4000 series will have cripple ware drivers and they'll just sell unlocked 3000 series cards. If they use different processes, making more Ampere cards won't hurt next generation production.

I'm sure NVidia will try to keep prices high, but they'd do that regardless. If people will pay then who am I to argue.

I don't understand this. The greatest volume is in the $250-$300 range, right? That's the price that makes sense for someone looking to upgrade their PC to improve gaming performance. There hasn't been anything in that price range for about 2 years now. If next gen doesn't offer these people something, then isn't that a bad thing for the industry? I'm struggling to see how these endless price hikes are sustainable, but they keep selling out instantly, so maybe I'm the one who needs to get a clue. I just can't see most people paying $800+ for a single component when they can get a complete gaming console with all the polish and quality of a PS5 or Xbox. The fact that these super expensive GPUs constantly fly off the shelves really blows my mind to pieces.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Maybe most GPUs are going back and forth between people looking to make a buck? I mean, I made like $13 in profit when I sold my shrink wrapped 3060 Ti. I still don't feel bad about it. But if I had to suffer a loss on it, I would have been inconsolable.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

I don't understand this. The greatest volume is in the $250-$300 range, right? That's the price that makes sense for someone looking to upgrade their PC to improve gaming performance. There hasn't been anything in that price range for about 2 years now. If next gen doesn't offer these people something, then isn't that a bad thing for the industry? I'm struggling to see how these endless price hikes are sustainable, but they keep selling out instantly, so maybe I'm the one who needs to get a clue. I just can't see most people paying $800+ for a single component when they can get a complete gaming console with all the polish and quality of a PS5 or Xbox. The fact that these super expensive GPUs constantly fly off the shelves really blows my mind to pieces.

- If NV plays its cards right and uses Samsung for the AD104 or AD106 die and down, it may be possible for them to absolutely flood the sub $300 space with something that performs like the 3060Ti with solid availability and leave the more performant and more expensive AD103/104 dies and up for the high margin high performance parts.

That would be an absolute win in my book.

 

[moonbogg]

- If NV plays its cards right and uses Samsung for the AD104 or AD106 die and down, it may be possible for them to absolutely flood the sub $300 space with something that performs like the 3060Ti with solid availability and leave the more performant and more expensive AD103/104 dies and up for the high margin high performance parts.

That would be an absolute win in my book.

Yeah it would be great. 1440p monitors are more affordable than ever. CPUs are super fast and priced great right now. All we need is for a badass next gen mid range GPU to hit that sweet spot and the excitement can really begin again. Something with a tiny, super efficient die and low cost but high performing would be great. They'd still be able to sell their $2500 4090 and $1600 4080 to plenty of people.

 

[jpiniero]

- If NV plays its cards right and uses Samsung for the AD104 or AD106 die and down, it may be possible for them to absolutely flood the sub $300 space with something that performs like the 3060Ti with solid availability and leave the more performant and more expensive AD103/104 dies and up for the high margin high performance parts.

99% sure it's TSMC all the way down. It may be N6 instead but def not Samsung.

Assume they could sell current Ampere @ their real MSRP as long as people are willing to buy it at that price.

 

[DrMrLordX]

99% sure it's TSMC all the way down.

Is anyone using Samsung for commercial dGPUs aside from the products NV still has on "8nm"?

 

[Dannar26]

I'm with Moonbogg here. How is this nonsense being sustained? Who is willing? Are there really *that* many gamers out there with huge disposable incomes? I thought everybody lost their jobs during covid?

It literally makes more sense to buy a whole gaming laptop vs a graphics card. The gaming laptops aren't being priced to high-heaven. This is what I've done, but I had other real life circumstances that facilitated this.

Were it not for graphics cards, right now would be an ideal time to build. We may yet see it, so long as DDR4 doesn't die out too soon leaving us with crazy-expensive DDR5.

I want something that handily beats my old 5700xt, or the same or lower price ($400). Screw your sUpPlY cHaIn IsSuEs, these companies are milking it at this point. While I doubt it, I realllllllllllllllly hope intel shocks us all and puts out a 1440p card for a price based on reality and not this ridiculous pricing hellscape.

 

[jpiniero]

I want something that handily beats my old 5700xt, or the same or lower price ($400).

That might be tough with Ada or the Navi Refresh. Right now you aren't even getting 5700 XT performance for $400. AD106 might be able to deliver on performance but I don't know what they will charge.