Question RTX 4000/RX 7000 price speculation thread

[moonbogg]

My prediction: The entire generation will be 2-3X msrp on ebay and at retailers. RTX 3000 series will be sold along side the 4000 series because only a few will be buying RTX 4000 series who are willing to pay $1500 for what should be a $300 RTX 4060. Not enough supply to meet demand by a long shot, pricing will be through the Oort cloud. PC gaming is dead. Your thoughts?

 

[swilli89]

I'm not comfortable running a PSU close to its limits. 650W at 80% efficiency is around 520W. I got my $300 Z77 mobo's PCIe lanes (all of them) fried because I was dumb enough to run an RX 580 on it with a 400W PSU. Never again.

been running a 12 year old Seasonic 650 Watt gold PSU with a Ryzen 5900X and 3070 no issues with 3 hard drives for over a year. zero crashes or problems.

 

[Aapje]

It's typically better to run above than below the optimal wattage for the power supply though (so if the optimum is 300 watt, it's better to run at 400 than at 200).

So getting a huge power supply is not really that great a way to deal with transients.

 

[blckgrffn]

I am using my first 1kw PSU ever, on a 3090Ti and 5800X3D build. I figure the 3090Ti is rated at 450W (and I am going to allow it all of that) and the CPU is 105W - even if somehow the system is really strapped across the board it should hit about 60% of the theoretical capability and should sit between 40% and 60% on a regular basis, where it should be not too stressed and but with enough load to be pushing the efficiency to a reasonable level.

Paring a GPU like that with a "just right" sized PSU (what 750/850W?) seems like its cutting it to close given what the guy I am building it for expects it to be able to do, which is flight sim with VR. I expect that GPU to be running full tilt.

That said, the 1Kw seems like it would probably handle the next round of stupid gpus as well. Probably. Can't wait to see the 600W beasts and what it takes to keep them cool. (/s)

 

[DeathReborn]

My worry with my HX650 unit is given modern cards tend to have really bad load spikes, combined with the age of the unit as well as its relatively "low" power rating, is that I'll finally get my hands on a reasonably priced GPU that ends up drawing too much power for my relic of a PSU and everything burns out.

A 6900XT can spike to 619W so 650W is a worrisome PSU for high end next gen stuff. (latest GPU review on TPU)

NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3090 Ti Founders Edition Review

The GeForce RTX 3090 Ti Founders Edition is NVIDIA's mightiest card from the Ampere lineup. We previously looked at various custom designs. Today, we're checking out the Founders Edition to test how well it does in terms of heat and noise, and whether it's an alternative to the even more...

www.techpowerup.com

I'm not comfortable running a PSU close to its limits. 650W at 80% efficiency is around 520W. I got my $300 Z77 mobo's PCIe lanes (all of them) fried because I was dumb enough to run an RX 580 on it with a 400W PSU. Never again.

That's not how the efficiency works, your PSU is still a 650W unit but it is pulling around 812W from the wall to provide you with 650W of power (if fully loaded).

 

[yacoub]

This is interesting and I wonder if it will induce NVidia to do more to separate the mining and gaming function of their future GPUs or at least be forced to report more honestly on how they (imho) disenfranchised gamers for the sake of miners for a few years.

Nvidia Shares Plunge After SEC Finds "Inadequate Disclosures" For Crypto-Mining Business | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[igor_kavinski]

$5.5 million fine is cents for a company that paid $1.36 billion in termination fees to ARM.

 

[maddie]

This is interesting and I wonder if it will induce NVidia to do more to separate the mining and gaming function of their future GPUs or at least be forced to report more honestly on how they (imho) disenfranchised gamers for the sake of miners for a few years.

Nvidia Shares Plunge After SEC Finds "Inadequate Disclosures" For Crypto-Mining Business | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Investors hate to be mislead. Gaming is a more stable revenue stream. The real penalty here for Nvidia is the exposure of deceptive reporting.

 

[Aapje]

$5.5 million fine is cents for a company that paid $1.36 billion in termination fees to ARM.

This verdict opens the door for court cases by investors. Although there is no clear case to make, but Nvidia better improves their reporting, because if a huge sell-off by miners happens after the Ethereum Merge, causing demand for new cards to drop severely, investors suddenly have a strong case that they were misled about the risks of that event.

 

[blckgrffn]

This verdict opens the door for court cases by investors. Although there is no clear case to make, but Nvidia better improves their reporting, because if a huge sell-off by miners happens after the Ethereum Merge, causing demand for new cards to drop severely, investors suddenly have a strong case that they were misled about the risks of that event.

"Everything is fine, nothing to see here. All those mining GPUs suddenly got stranded in countries that can no longer export, so it's all good!"

That's sarcasm, but I am sure the chip makers weren't really that sad when everything they could create was sold instantly, no matter it's home. I feel sorry for some allocation folks who spent years getting crushed (knowing people personally at 3M in N95 division - selling all the could make was actually not that fun) but I am sure the people getting paid based on the quarterly performance of the company are going to be fine regardless unless they are somehow held criminally liable as individuals.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

This is interesting and I wonder if it will induce NVidia to do more to separate the mining and gaming function of their future GPUs or at least be forced to report more honestly on how they (imho) disenfranchised gamers for the sake of miners for a few years.

Nvidia Shares Plunge After SEC Finds "Inadequate Disclosures" For Crypto-Mining Business | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

- This is the second time NV has been in hot water for the same thing. They got hit with a lawsuit at the end of the last mining boom around 2017 for misrepresenting what percentage of their revenue was derived from miners and what was from gamers.

I think they managed to win that one so we'll see how this one goes.

 

[maddie]

- This is the second time NV has been in hot water for the same thing. They got hit with a lawsuit at the end of the last mining boom around 2017 for misrepresenting what percentage of their revenue was derived from miners and what was from gamers.

I think they managed to win that one so we'll see how this one goes.

Yep. My impression is that this time, much more sales went directly to massive mining farms, so the ignorance excuse has less support.

 

[moonbogg]

The report above was based on the 2018 events according to what I read. I can't wait to see what the reporting finds for the current crypto boom and how Nvidia handled it. Did Nvidia disclose that their entire 3000 series product generation went straight to miners? If not, they failed. Did Nvidia disclose that mining literally put their PC gaming business on hold for a solid 2 years and permanently damaged it with higher product prices moving forward? If not, they failed.

 

[jpiniero]

OK new prediction, specifically nVidia.

4090 Ti - 140 SM - $2499 - January
4090 - 126 SM - $1899 - August

4080 Ti - 84 SM - $1499 - January
4080 - 76 SM - $899 - October

4070 - 58 SM - $699 - December

 

[moonbogg]

OK new prediction, specifically nVidia.

4090 Ti - 140 SM - $2499 - January, 2023
4090 - 126 SM - $1899 - August, 2022

4080 Ti - 84 SM - $1499 - January, 2023
4080 - 76 SM - $899 - October, 2022

4070 - 58 SM - $699 - December, 2022

I added the years that I assume you meant. If so, I can see this happening and could make sense. I wouldn't buy any of them, but I can see it making sense for the lunatic fringe (which is basically the entire GPU market these days).

 

[Hans Gruber]

Demand for computers is down 6.8% This forum represents the 1% of computer enthusiasts that do not see the big picture. The economy is in a recession. Prices are headed down big time.

Worldwide PC shipments totaled 77.9 million units in the first quarter of 2022, a 6.8% decrease from the first quarter of 2021, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc.

 

[biostud]

Demand for computers is down 6.8% This forum represents the 1% of computer enthusiasts that do not see the big picture. The economy is in a recession. Prices are headed down big time.

Worldwide PC shipments totaled 77.9 million units in the first quarter of 2022, a 6.8% decrease from the first quarter of 2021, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc.

Looking forward to lower prices...

 

[jpiniero]

Demand for computers is down 6.8% This forum represents the 1% of computer enthusiasts that do not see the big picture. The economy is in a recession. Prices are headed down big time.

All the more reason to hold back the mid range products and focus on the Ultra High End for Ada.

 

[moonbogg]

Demand for computers is down 6.8% This forum represents the 1% of computer enthusiasts that do not see the big picture. The economy is in a recession. Prices are headed down big time.

Worldwide PC shipments totaled 77.9 million units in the first quarter of 2022, a 6.8% decrease from the first quarter of 2021, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc.

We'll have to see how well this prediction ages when the 4000 series launches. I predict an MSRP higher than last gen, not lower. The products people care about on forums like this are really disconnected from the rest of the PC world and market. The reason is because GPUs are like drugs and gamers will claw each other's eyes out to get one. You think losing a job or having no money will get in their way? LOL no, it won't. They will bust out the plastic and pay more money this gen than they ever have before.

 

[VirtualLarry]

We'll have to see how well this prediction ages when the 4000 series launches. I predict an MSRP higher than last gen, not lower. The products people care about on forums like this are really disconnected from the rest of the PC world and market. The reason is because GPUs are like drugs and gamers will claw each other's eyes out to get one. You think losing a job or having no money will get in their way? LOL no, it won't. They will bust out the plastic and pay more money this gen than they ever have before.

How long before Nvidia gets directly involved in underwriting loans for purchases of Nvidia GPUs, ala "GM Financial", except it would be "Nvidia financial". Maybe buying a GPU will be like, and as expensive as, buying a vehicle.

 

[moonbogg]

How long before Nvidia gets directly involved in underwriting loans for purchases of Nvidia GPUs, ala "GM Financial", except it would be "Nvidia financial". Maybe buying a GPU will be like, and as expensive as, buying a vehicle.

I think it's time we get there. Game lobbies should have a population of 5 people; just the ones who can afford it and deserve to play. If a gamer can't even afford a simple $5000 toy, then clearly they made nothing but poor choices in life and they deserve to suck.

 

[Frenetic Pony]

RX...
7900: $1600; 24gb gddr6. Memory is expensive, and this still gives AMD a profit margin (chips sold onto AIBs) of around 80%
7800: $1000, 12gb. Cut down 7900, AMD probably willing to go a mere 65% ish profit margin here.

7700: $500; 12gb. AMD would probably be willing to take 50-60%ish here as it's a much higher volume product and there's a lot of competition now.
7600: $400; 12gb. Pricing tiers just mean it'll be around here.
7500: $300; 8gb. Super low margin, super high volume.
7400: 4/8gb, $239.

Nvidia will have to follow somewhat closely cause yay competition and vanishing crypto zombies. Also yay chiplets. Of course this assumes there's only 2 high end chips and you can only have 1 compute chiplet at a time. This creates an obviously large gap, but what're you gonna do.

 

[jpiniero]

RX...
7900: $1600; 24gb gddr6. Memory is expensive, and this still gives AMD a profit margin (chips sold onto AIBs) of around 80%
7800: $1000, 12gb. Cut down 7900, AMD probably willing to go a mere 65% ish profit margin here.

7700: $500; 12gb. AMD would probably be willing to take 50-60%ish here as it's a much higher volume product and there's a lot of competition now.
7600: $400; 12gb. Pricing tiers just mean it'll be around here.
7500: $300; 8gb. Super low margin, super high volume.
7400: 4/8gb, $239.

That's def too optimistic on pricing unless the performance sucks which I doubt.

N31 is probably 7900/XT, N32 is 7800/XT, N33 is 7700/XT. And then RDNA2 rebrands below that if they feel like it. Pricing depends on where it lands versus nVidia.

 

[Ajay]

Demand for computers is down 6.8% This forum represents the 1% of computer enthusiasts that do not see the big picture. The economy is in a recession. Prices are headed down big time.

Worldwide PC shipments totaled 77.9 million units in the first quarter of 2022, a 6.8% decrease from the first quarter of 2021, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc.

No recession in the US, at least not yet.

 

[Hans Gruber]

No recession in the US, at least not yet.

With that said the 4060 or the 4070 looks to be the order of the day. AMD needs to figure out their mess. I hate Nvidia but AMD's GPU pricing and performance are off.

 

[Golgatha]

I am using my first 1kw PSU ever, on a 3090Ti and 5800X3D build. I figure the 3090Ti is rated at 450W (and I am going to allow it all of that) and the CPU is 105W - even if somehow the system is really strapped across the board it should hit about 60% of the theoretical capability and should sit between 40% and 60% on a regular basis, where it should be not too stressed and but with enough load to be pushing the efficiency to a reasonable level.

Paring a GPU like that with a "just right" sized PSU (what 750/850W?) seems like its cutting it to close given what the guy I am building it for expects it to be able to do, which is flight sim with VR. I expect that GPU to be running full tilt.

That said, the 1Kw seems like it would probably handle the next round of stupid gpus as well. Probably. Can't wait to see the 600W beasts and what it takes to keep them cool. (/s)

I'm more worried about having to get a bigger UPS since home ones typically top out at 1500VA or about 900w. For the short while I had a 3090 paired with my 5950X, the transient power draw would exceed the 650w my APC Back-UPS 1100 could provide. I ended up needing one for an entertainment center in the basement, so I moved the APC unit there, and I upgraded the one connected to my PC to a Cyberpower 1500VA model.