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RTX 30 shortages

lane42

Diamond Member
Sep 3, 2000
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And last time it was the Miner's fault, The 999.00 dollar (20-series)
cards went to 1,199. Let's see what happens this time. And I guess AMD
is having the same problem :rolleyes: Two Giant corps. can't get there
product out. Sorry had to vent.
 

TennesseeTony

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Aug 2, 2003
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Venting is fine. :)

As a factory worker, I am very glad car sales are a bit more steady. I make a part for alternators, the stator (winding). My company supplies Honda, Toyota, Chrysler/Dodge, BMW, Hyundai, some Ford and some Subaru, and probably a few I have forgotten. We make about 8000 per day. Is that not impressive? That is a LOT OF f'ing vehicles sold in N\A each day, since we only make about half the supply!!!

Now imagine people stopped buying cars for 3 to 6 months, because they were waiting on the next year model.... First there would be a huge and sudden demand, but secondly, my entire line would need to be redesigned, new equipment built, installed, and tested, training conducted, etc, because this new alternator stator is a whole new design. Same basic function, but totally different at the same time. And the design isn't finalized yet even!

Cool, so we get the bugs worked out and work for 3 weeks just building up inventory of the final design, weekends included. That is 168,000 ready to go on day one of the release, and 8000 a day afterwards. Now compare that to the built up demand, 3 months (12 weeks of 5 day weeks, is 60 days at 8000 per day= 480,000). Let's call it 6 months of backlog, due to the pandemic keeping some at home more often, that is nearly 1M in back-log.

I think they are doing just fine, considering the built up demand. ;)

PS: I have no idea how many chips are produced in one day, versus my 8000 alternators, but I suspect it is much higher. I would really like to see some figures on production volume, it could relieve some of the concern regarding supply shortages to see they have shipped x millions of parts already, and still short on supply. And they are supplying the world, not just half of N/A.
 
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VirtualLarry

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Aug 25, 2001
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Let me just say that with my purchase of 1x RX 5700 and 2x RX 5700XT cards this month, and 2x RX 5700XT cards last month, I'm doing my part (as a miner) to cause immense shortages of cards for you gamers out there. Yes, all five of my cards. Such a factor! :p
 

lane42

Diamond Member
Sep 3, 2000
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RTX 3080: What you need to know
What is it? Nvidia’s new flagship graphics card
When is it coming out? September 17th
When is it going on sale? 6am PT / 2pm BST
Going on 3 months and it could be a month or 2 more before
things smooth out is not fine. I think in most people's jobs
they would be fired. But hey, it's NOT THE END OF THE WORLD :)
T, I think i need some of your go-go juice :D
 
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UsandThem

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May 4, 2000
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A possible contributing factor: Seems a few hundred 3090s "fell off the back of a truck". :eek:


I imagine it didn't matter too much, but they probably don't sell huge numbers of the high-end cards anyway.
MSI is having a bad year.

New CEO "falls" to death from office/factory, they had a fire at one of their major factories a month or so ago, and now stolen GPUs.

https://www.tweaktown.com/news/76113/msi-factory-in-china-catches-fire-months-after-ceo-falls-to-his-death/index.html
 

TennesseeTony

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I probably should not have included Nvidia in my reply. AMD though is providing GPU, CPU, xbox, and PS5 from the same facility...so AMD is doing 4x better than Nvidia. I wonder if AMD is contractually obligated to provide certain quantities of the console chips, causing the GPU and CPU supply to be constrained?
 

Endgame124

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Feb 11, 2008
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PS: I have no idea how many chips are produced in one day, versus my 8000 alternators, but I suspect it is much higher. I would really like to see some figures on production volume, it could relieve some of the concern regarding supply shortages to see they have shipped x millions of parts already, and still short on supply. And they are supplying the world, not just half of N/A.
Some speculation here and some really fast googling. Samsung’s contract with Nvidia is roughly 1 billion dollars at around 150,000 wafers per month, but they haven’t been hitting that in part due to supply shortages, and yields have been bad enough Nvidia apparently dramatically reduced the orders per month to try to improve yield. Nvidia can put about 100 3080 dies per wafer. A rumor I found from September said 40%+ failure rate, so around 60 successful dies per wafer. (This failure rate is probably why the 3060ti uses the 3080 die.). Kyle Bennet reported that the 3080 launched with less than 1000 available in North America and that less than 10,000 would be available this year. That puts monthly production around 3000 / month, but more than likely the yields have been improving month on month so October may have been very low too.
 
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Kiska

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AMD though is providing GPU, CPU, xbox, and PS5 from the same facility...so AMD is doing 4x better than Nvidia. I wonder if AMD is contractually obligated to provide certain quantities of the console chips, causing the GPU and CPU supply to be constrained?
I hear AMD is dedicating 80% of their 7nm wafers to the consoles, if that is true I guess CPUs and GPUs are going to be in short supply for a while
 
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TennesseeTony

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Some speculation here and some really fast googling. Samsung’s contract with Nvidia is roughly 1 billion dollars at around 150,000 wafers per month, but they haven’t been hitting that in part due to supply shortages, and yields have been bad enough Nvidia apparently dramatically reduced the orders per month to try to improve yield. Nvidia can put about 100 3080 dies per wafer. A rumor I found from September said 40%+ failure rate, so around 60 successful dies per wafer. (This failure rate is probably why the 3060ti uses the 3080 die.). Kyle Bennet reported that the 3080 launched with less than 1000 available in North America and that less than 10,000 would be available this year. That puts monthly production around 3000 / month, but more than likely the yields have been improving month on month so October may have been very low too.
But.....150,000 wafers per month at 60 dies per wafer is 9,000,000 per month. That seems awfully high, and contradicts the the 1000 and 10,000 figures, or did I misunderstand something? Maybe 150,000 wafers total, and much fewer wafers per month?
 

Endgame124

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Feb 11, 2008
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But.....150,000 wafers per month at 60 dies per wafer is 9,000,000 per month. That seems awfully high, and contradicts the the 1000 and 10,000 figures, or did I misunderstand something? Maybe 150,000 wafers total, and much fewer wafers per month?
My googling showed The contract was for 150,000 wafers / month across the entire 3000 series line, with full production to begin in 2021. I should have saved the article because I can’t find it now :(.

Samsung can’t hit that due to material shortages, so actual production is less. Furthermore, Nvidia reduced their starts per month to work on yield issues - I don’t know what percentage that was, I’ve only seen references to “substantial” reduction. Now we are supposedly seeing shortages of DDR6X and DDR6, (https://wccftech.com/amd-rx-6000-and-nvidia-rtx-30-series-hit-by-another-supply-constraint-gddr6-memory-shortage/) so even assembling cards is hit by another constraint considering the whole AMD 6800 line is using DDR 6 along with the 3070 and 3060.

on top of that, those 60 functional dies aren’t necessarily functional as a 3080 - they just turn on. Given the 3070 and 3060ti use the same GA102 die as the 3080 and 3090, I’ve seen guessing that yields capable of working at 3080/3090 speeds are especially terrible.

if I get some time, I’ll try to source a few of these things, but note that I’m getting some of this information from places like WCCf tech, which should be taken with a mountain of salt
 

Kiska

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My googling showed The contract was for 150,000 wafers / month across the entire 3000 series line, with full production to begin in 2021. I should have saved the article because I can’t find it now :(.
Wasn't it in some Nvidia Investor Relation document? Or was it Samsung
 

Markfw

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I am waiting on the 6800xt/6900xt. If I get it by Christmas, I will be happy (not a good chance of that)

My folding needs a bump to overtake Pokey :)
 
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Endgame124

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Feb 11, 2008
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In some cases, it's even faster than a 3090. You're not going to find one of those in stock anywhere, either.
Let me rephrase - will the 6900XT beat a 3080 in folding@home points per day? I thought with CUDA, the 3080 was at around 5mil per day, while the 6800XT was around 3 mil ppd.
 

Markfw

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Let me rephrase - will the 6900XT beat a 3080 in folding@home points per day? I thought with CUDA, the 3080 was at around 5mil per day, while the 6800XT was around 3 mil ppd.
That can;t be . My 2080TI's are doing 5 mill ppd per day, Either the 6800XT or the 3080 should be much faster than that.
 

Mike_F

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Jan 27, 2020
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From the folding.lar.systems link cited by Endgame124:
"Each GPUs PPD value is based on samples from real users folding work units collected from a variety of user hardware configurations and different folding@home projects available daily to create average performance baselines."

Fair enough that WU's vary (sometimes wildly) and configurations even more, but they don't break out a very significant metric that is easily done--Windows or Linux or something else?
 
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StefanR5R

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Dec 10, 2016
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From the other thread; fits here too:
I have case, fans, PSU, MB, CPU, RAM, SSD, CPU waterblock, pump, tubes etc. stashed away unused since December 2017. This was when we folded together with Brony@home. These parts were supposed to host two GPUs which were impossible to get by the end of 12/2017 and during the following months.
Next year before May 5 I'll go look whether current GPUs can be had, to finally put these parts to good use.
 
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LANMAN

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Oct 10, 1999
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Heard Nivida might be releasing the 3080Ti in Jan 21'? Slimmed down 3090 (lower memory) suspect about $500 less than the 3090.
I actually was able to get a 3090 in my Best Buy cart on Tues, but it was "in store" pickup only; thats a deal breaker..
15 min later.. sold out. LOL! That's ok... $1500 bucks back in my wallet.
 

Endgame124

Senior member
Feb 11, 2008
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Heard Nivida might be releasing the 3080Ti in Jan 21'? Slimmed down 3090 (lower memory) suspect about $500 less than the 3090.
I actually was able to get a 3090 in my Best Buy cart on Tues, but it was "in store" pickup only; thats a deal breaker..
15 min later.. sold out. LOL! That's ok... $1500 bucks back in my wallet.
3080ti has shown up in HP drivers. Details are all rumors, but wccf reports 20GB ram and same number of CUDA cores as the 3090, but lower bandwidth. Price speculation is all over the place - Looks like it will be somewhere around 1000-1100?

 

Ken g6

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