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Rona: The 60 percent double-jab statement

Jaskalas

Jaskalas

Lifer
So, on or about July 19th, 2021, Sir Patrick Vallance, Chief Scientific Adviser in the UK Government, stood before the public and said "60% of coronavirus-related hospital admissions were double-jabbed people".

He later corrected in a tweet to state that he had it backwards. 60% of current COVID hospitalizations are unvaccinated.

Think about that, only 60%. This strongly indicates that 40% of COVID hospitalizations ARE vaccinated. Are variants winning? I was not expecting these official figures from a government report. Is the UK not to be trusted, does any other data corroborate or refute the notion presented to us by the UK? Anyways, I figured this particular story stood out.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1417204235356213252
 
About 70% of the adult population is fully vaccinated (I hate the term "double jabbed", it reeks of Boris).
So 60% of hospitalisation comes from 30% of the population, and only 40% from 70% (I can't be arsed to do the maths, it's 04:30 here) so those figures are better than they first sound.
I think our figures and testing ate some of the most rigorous in the world (it's one of the reasons why we pick up the variants so quickly).

On a different but related note Boris is being a knob about opening the country up right now. Numbers are surging. That said, deaths are holding very low.
 
A quick search says that 4100 vaccinated people in the use have been hospitalized or died. Didn't see a percentage breakdown, or any stats about comorbidity.
 
There is a third category between vaccinated(double-jabbed) and unvaccinated, aka those who have received just one dose. Currently around 16% of population of the UK is one dose. Studies have shown that the protection of just one dose(Pfizer and AstraZeneca) against delta is pretty shitty at <40% vs 90%+ for both doses.
 
MrSquished said:
need some more of that mRNA action up in the UK folks. That AZ just ain't up to snuff.
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They went with the home-grown vaccine, perhaps for prestige or production (guarantees) reasons. Since Sir Vallance botched the verbiage during the press conference, I even wonder if he's simply inaccurate about a 60/40 split. In the U.S., it's roughly a 98/2 split. simpletron is correct that there are many people who are partially vaccinated, so we'd have to see somewhat granular data to be sure.
 
Greenman said:
A quick search says that 4100 vaccinated people in the use have been hospitalized or died. Didn't see a percentage breakdown, or any stats about comorbidity.
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Deaths here are pretty low considering the spike in cases
Comorbidities are always a bit of a red herring. Most people are going to have a few. Fat? Smoke? Asthma? Diabetic?
 
Jaskalas said:
So, on or about July 19th, 2021, Sir Patrick Vallance, Chief Scientific Adviser in the UK Government, stood before the public and said "60% of coronavirus-related hospital admissions were double-jabbed people".

He later corrected in a tweet to state that he had it backwards. 60% of current COVID hospitalizations are unvaccinated.

Think about that, only 60%. This strongly indicates that 40% of COVID hospitalizations ARE vaccinated. Are variants winning? I was not expecting these official figures from a government report. Is the UK not to be trusted, does any other data corroborate or refute the notion presented to us by the UK? Anyways, I figured this particular story stood out.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1417204235356213252
Click to expand...
Nate Silver explains it pretty well here. Basically if everyone is vaccinated then of course whatever remaining hospitalizations you have are among the vaccinated. AZ is also less effective than Pfizer/Moderna.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1417166802736537618

BUT if you look at the death rate in the UK as compared to the case counts you will see an absolutely enormous difference. Basically AZ doesn’t seem great at preventing infection but it does seem great at preventing serious disease.
 
WelshBloke said:
Deaths here are pretty low considering the spike in cases
Comorbidities are always a bit of a red herring. Most people are going to have a few. Fat? Smoke? Asthma? Diabetic?
Click to expand...
Deaths have lagged every cases spike by about 4 weeks. Deaths in the US are staying to come up again, roughly 4 weeks after the new surge. Deaths should still spike at a lower ratio of cases than before, though.
 
Jaskalas said:
Right, though cases are spiking... we lack the number of hospitalizations. It could be much lower than before, compared to # of cases.
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If the UK is representative, and if anything the US should be better, than the vaccinated population in the US has little to fear. The unvaccinated population though... look out.
 
fskimospy said:
The unvaccinated population though... look out.
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This is both very frustrating and seemingly fate.

I know unvaccinated people I cannot get vaccinated, even if I offer them money.

On the other hand, the unvaccinated choose this outcome, so who am I to question it?
 
If you are old and unvaccinated you are spinning the cylinder and dropping a hammer, of course the numbers should be much better this go as most will be younger and in theory stronger.
 
Hmm.. an effective Dem strategy would be to launch campaigns in red districts : DONT GET THE VACCINE, THE SPACE LASERS WILL GET YOU.
 
Herd immunity.

Plenty of humans around the globe are either voluntarily or involuntary not getting the vaccine. And as has been pointed out repeatedly, its not 100 percent effective. If you are completely surrounded by sick people (as an example, Republicans) you will definitely pick it up. By a fantastic coincidence, the kind of people who refuse to get a COVID vaccine are also not washing their hands with soap for 30 seconds, maintaining distance from other humans, or wearing masks.

Weird.....
 
Herd immunity is bollocks with this thing as I've come to understand, specially with Delta. You get a poorer immune response from defeating it yourself vs. getting the vaccine AND the vaccinated is probably gonna need yearly boosters.

So if you are an anti vaxxer and the Rona didnt catch you this season? There is always next season. And next season. And
 
Jaskalas said:
Right, though cases are spiking... we lack the number of hospitalizations. It could be much lower than before, compared to # of cases.
Click to expand...
Yeah, when I posted that I had forgotten that the UK was a few weeks ahead of the US.

I don't think the death rate will be nearly as high here as last winter, but will come up as we get deeper into the spike.
 
cytg111 said:
Herd immunity is bollocks with this thing as I've come to understand, specially with Delta. You get a poorer immune response from defeating it yourself vs. getting the vaccine AND the vaccinated is probably gonna need yearly boosters.

So if you are an anti vaxxer and the Rona didnt catch you this season? There is always next season. And next season. And
Click to expand...
Right now, there is little indication an annual booster will be required. Yes there is anti-body fade, but that happens with all vaccines and natural immunity.
 
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