Robots won’t kill the workforce. They’ll save the global economy.

[Moonbeam]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/post..._experimentrandom_3_na&utm_term=.d7ee98070f52

As a person who knows nothing, I consonantly am fascinated by people who actually claim to. I especially find it interesting when I discover the opinions of folk who seem to believe differently than what I might term common knowledge.

In this article a person of some apparent personal stature argues that robots are required for the good of the world economy.

I think it is interesting to try to figure out if we are traveling up and away from a brutish past or to our own destruction technologically speaking.

What is your take on the ideas presented here. I find them interestingly compelling. Or maybe in implies going form Soylent Green to lifetime forced labor.. Maybe at 90 with the proper exoskeleton, I could pick tomatoes, corn, and beans.

 

[HamburgerBoy]

Robots will save their global economy as long as angry 'umies don't get too riotous. The problem is that people think reproduction is a sacred human right, when it's actually one of the most damaging actions possible if done unsustainably (and many workers, let alone retirees and the unemployed, do not make a net contribution to society).

 

[rommelrommel]

What he seems completely uninterested in (which should be no surprise given the line of work that he's in) is how we will distribute wealth when the vast majority of humans are no longer capable of doing anything of value.

All he seems to care about is the ability of robots to keep economic growth rolling. The thing is, that isn't the least bit controversial. The part that hasn't been addressed is what happens to the labour force. He hand waves that concern with "Now, many fear that self-driving trucks will displace millions of American truckers, but they may create more and better jobs for those who service those increasingly complex vehicles." as if millions of lost jobs in transportation will be replaced with millions of automotive tech jobs. As if fixing trucks will be immune to automation as well...

 

[Moonbeam]

Robots will save their global economy as long as angry 'umies don't get too riotous. The problem is that people think reproduction is a sacred human right, when it's actually one of the most damaging actions possible if done unsustainably (and many workers, let alone retirees and the unemployed, do not make a net contribution to society).

Pardon me if my question seems confrontational but did you even read the link? The argument presented pretty much negates everything you just said. It just seems profoundly silly to reply to an argument that robots are needed because of declining population growth by claiming there are too much reproduction going on and finishes up with the claim that more hands are needed.

And I'm sure it must be difficult for you to believe coming from a person who loves himself like I do, but perhaps that reach for the notion that so many are worthless is a projection of how you see yourself.

 

[Moonbeam]

What he seems completely uninterested in (which should be no surprise given the line of work that he's in) is how we will distribute wealth when the vast majority of humans are no longer capable of doing anything of value.

All he seems to care about is the ability of robots to keep economic growth rolling. The thing is, that isn't the least bit controversial. The part that hasn't been addressed is what happens to the labour force. He hand waves that concern with "Now, many fear that self-driving trucks will displace millions of American truckers, but they may create more and better jobs for those who service those increasingly complex vehicles." as if millions of lost jobs in transportation will be replaced with millions of automotive tech jobs. As if fixing trucks will be immune to automation as well...

I guess the answer to that will be that millions of jobs will then open up fixing the robotic fixers, turtles all the way down as it were.

 

[theeedude]

As a computer engineer in the center of this to some extent, I think that if in 25 years, we haven't automated at least 25% of today's jobs, we will have failed.
But I think we should be building riot control robots first for the rioting out of work peasants. Maybe swarms of AI drones with tranquilizer darts or something.
And robots won't save the global economy, only universal basic income will.

 

[superstition]

Efficiency is more important than growth. Humanity's population, consumption, pollution, and waste growth are not good — nor is it necessary for anyone to work more than four–five hours a day to maintain adequate productivity.

Instead of seeing wages keep pace with the rise in productivity or the length of the workday decline to match the lower compensation we just see more resources being concentrated at the top.

If humanity were rational we'd use robotics to increase productivity while reducing the required working hours for people so they could have higher quality of life via more free time — without taking away their access to needed resources so the elites can have more homes and yachts.

The bubble economic model is designed to enrich elites and shortchange everyone else. That model demands endless growth because people are kept fruitlessly chasing illusory "profits" that are just inflation and hidden costs. What we should seek instead is resource use equilibrium — where humanity's impact on the biosphere does not increase and will not lead to our eventual demise. Robotics will only make it easier to do that without requiring people to give up the perks of modernity.

But our exploitation/predatory model is a Ponzi scheme and will remain so unless robots eventually replace us as leaders.

 

[MrSquished]

just don't watch Westworld

 

[Sunburn74]

The ultimate goal of technology/science is to replace all human work.

 

[HamburgerBoy]

Pardon me if my question seems confrontational but did you even read the link? The argument presented pretty much negates everything you just said. It just seems profoundly silly to reply to an argument that robots are needed because of declining population growth by claiming there are too much reproduction going on and finishes up with the claim that more hands are needed.

And I'm sure it must be difficult for you to believe coming from a person who loves himself like I do, but perhaps that reach for the notion that so many are worthless is a projection of how you see yourself.

I was addressing the downside of automated labor, which is that people become unproductive and angry, since there are too many people for too little work. Reduced reproduction helps to curb unproductive people by ensuring they don't exist.

 

[Paratus]

The ultimate goal of technology/science is to replace all human work.

I think this gets forgotten a lot. I like to start with first principles.

Thanks the thermodynamics we have to work to maintain our bodies. We have to expend energy - work to obtain the everything at the base of maslow's hierarchy of needs. Namely, air, water, food, shelter and safety.

In the absence of technology and civilization you would spend virtually all your life working every hour to meet these needs and you'd die when you couldn't. Technology lets us multiply our work. Where a single person could hunt and gather enough food for themselves and maybe their family, now that same person with modern technology can grow enough for thousands or millions.

Technology also gave us money, a way to store work. Something I think. Most have forgotten. Stored work allows us to trade work and again increase efficiency and multiply the work done.

We have decide now what kind of world we want to live in. One where we use our technology to continue to increase the amount of useful work available, the fruits of which go to the very few while the many work just as long and as hard as without technology. Or where everyone's needs are easily met, with little of our time being dedicated to meeting those needs.

 

[1prophet]

Automation, the new bogeyman to keep the naive populace eyes off the globalists corporate types that are the actual culprits behind our ever decreasing lifestyle where we are told don't worry be happy because 3 ten dollar an hour jobs with no benefits is a net gain of 2 jobs for that 30 dollar an hour job with benefits that was lost.

Just don't ask these elite types why if jobs are so plentiful people are protesting for 15 dollar an hour minimum wage increase ( which has its own problems, can't pay your knowledgeable experienced staff who were making 13 to 14 dollars an hour 15 and then hire some new guy who is green at the same pay rate and not expect major problems)

 

[Grooveriding]

The eerie future is one where we actually manage to develop AI capable to the point it can start to innovate and perform research at a level and pace that the human race's collective ability was not able to. I'm all for it. I killed myself financially, hard worked and time invested into my education to make sure I'd be comfortable and my children would be as well. I am all for my grand kids kicking up their feet from the get go and the T1000 taking care of things.

 

[agent00f]

I think this gets forgotten a lot. I like to start with first principles.

Thanks the thermodynamics we have to work to maintain our bodies. We have to expend energy - work to obtain the everything at the base of maslow's hierarchy of needs. Namely, air, water, food, shelter and safety.

In the absence of technology and civilization you would spend virtually all your life working every hour to meet these needs and you'd die when you couldn't. Technology lets us multiply our work. Where a single person could hunt and gather enough food for themselves and maybe their family, now that same person with modern technology can grow enough for thousands or millions.

Technology also gave us money, a way to store work. Something I think. Most have forgotten. Stored work allows us to trade work and again increase efficiency and multiply the work done.

We have decide now what kind of world we want to live in. One where we use our technology to continue to increase the amount of useful work available, the fruits of which go to the very few while the many work just as long and as hard as without technology. Or where everyone's needs are easily met, with little of our time being dedicated to meeting those needs.

This and similar points above are all correct, that generally speaking tech advance like computing/machinery has made people more efficient and thereby quality of life higher.

However there's also the reality that low hanging fruit comes first, and that at some point the machines will overwhelm the ability of operators, and the ability of machines have their own limits.

For example, AI and such as it currently exist is highly predicated on computing power, and in case it's news moore's law a la cost per transistor/logic has effectively ended. And similarly the development of AI predicated on human brainpower hasn't advanced much (as people might believe) in many decades, outside maybe the addition of larger datasets, and as unreasonably effective as that has proven it's a one-shot deal.

So the short of it is that very simple jobs like cashier or long haul trucking will only be a matter of time, but not for anything where much of any education or intelligence has value.

 

[Udgnim]

robot / automation will make basic income an eventual necessity

 

[bshole]

The eerie future is one where we actually manage to develop AI capable to the point it can start to innovate and perform research at a level and pace that the human race's collective ability was not able to. I'm all for it. I killed myself financially, hard worked and time invested into my education to make sure I'd be comfortable and my children would be as well. I am all for my grand kids kicking up their feet from the get go and the T1000 taking care of things.

Won't work, a life spent in idleness is a sure way to depression and unhappiness. Work gives meaning in life for many.

 

[OILFIELDTRASH]

I'm a truck driver. I've yet to have a truck driving job where all I did was drive. I guess whenever they have a robot that can get out of said self automated truck and talk to the customers and do the physical labor that's required of me then I'll believe that they can automate me out of a job. If it gets to that point then it's not just truckers that should be worried.

 

[mect]

I'm a truck driver. I've yet to have a truck driving job where all I did was drive. I guess whenever they have a robot that can get out of said self automated truck and talk to the customers and do the physical labor that's required of me then I'll believe that they can automate me out of a job. If it gets to that point then it's not just truckers that should be worried.

It won't happen all at once, but self driving trucks will certainly decrease the number of truck drivers needed. Instead of a driver for each truck, it might start as a driver for a fleet of trucks. Then it might change to a company representative in the destination city meeting trucks as they arrive to talk to customers and do the physical labor. It is typically an incremental process instead of one day suddenly the jobs are all replaced by robots.

 

[Sunburn74]

That future is coming very very soon. There are already 18 wheelers that automate driving. Figure out a way to automate delivery through some sort of docking and rail system and a lot of people will be jobless. Its not good or bad; just progress. It's up to everyone to see when the writing is on the wall and to have backup plans.

 

[OILFIELDTRASH]

It won't happen all at once, but self driving trucks will certainly decrease the number of truck drivers needed. Instead of a driver for each truck, it might start as a driver for a fleet of trucks. Then it might change to a company representative in the destination city meeting trucks as they arrive to talk to customers and do the physical labor. It is typically an incremental process instead of one day suddenly the jobs are all replaced by robots.

I have anywhere from 8 to 12 stops in a day. I guess they could have someone there at each stop. Driving a company vehicle From stop to stop. While the automated truck which likely costs a half a million dollars drives around vs one guy and one truck. And the non automated truck costing 70k. What do these automated trucks do for fuel? We are a long way from that future. Either way I'm not overly concerned. I've worked in many fields at many different jobs. You guys typing on keyboards for a living should be more concerned more than anyone.

 

[mect]

I have anywhere from 8 to 12 stops in a day. I guess they could have someone there at each stop. Driving a company vehicle From stop to stop. While the automated truck which likely costs a half a million dollars drives around vs one guy and one truck. And the non automated truck costing 70k. What do these automated trucks do for fuel? We are a long way from that future. Either way I'm not overly concerned. I've worked in many fields at many different jobs. You guys typing on keyboards for a living should be more concerned more than anyone.

I agree, it isn't just truck jobs. It also isn't just low skill jobs. Its possible that lawyers, doctors, accountants, and other high skilled jobs could be heavily impacted as technology progresses. Just like your job, this isn't to say that these jobs will just disappear, but that technology will at first assist, then decrease demand. I agree your job is pretty safe for the near future. Drivers for places like Walmart that are going from a distribution center to a specific store will be the first affected I imagine. For fill ups, they could easily contract that out to individual gas stations along route. Obviously this won't happen with automated trucks costing 500k. But bring the price down to 100k, and now it becomes a big possibility. The automation doesn't have high materials cost, its mainly a technology issue. These technologies are working their way into every day cars that don't have a significant price increase relative to normal cars.

 

[shady28]

I'm a truck driver. I've yet to have a truck driving job where all I did was drive. I guess whenever they have a robot that can get out of said self automated truck and talk to the customers and do the physical labor that's required of me then I'll believe that they can automate me out of a job. If it gets to that point then it's not just truckers that should be worried.

You are a lot closer to reality than most here. And this is a field I work directly in, the software side of communicating to PLCs, OPC UA, SCADA systems, etc.

 

[OILFIELDTRASH]

You are a lot closer to reality than most here. And this is a field I work directly in, the software side of communicating to PLCs, OPC UA, SCADA systems, etc.

You can definitely be automated out of a job. Just wait until liberals get their dream of open borders and they are handing out green cards to educated immigrants. You don't think your employer could get some highly educated Chinese or Indians up to speed in a short amount of time? Don't fool yourself into thinking you are a modern day Einstein. So don't be so quick to cast bad voodoo into other people's direction because you are in no better place than I am.

 

[agent00f]

I'm a truck driver. I've yet to have a truck driving job where all I did was drive. I guess whenever they have a robot that can get out of said self automated truck and talk to the customers and do the physical labor that's required of me then I'll believe that they can automate me out of a job. If it gets to that point then it's not just truckers that should be worried.

That's what any grocery cashier would say, that they provide value in solving any little problem customers might have, and look what's happening to them. And secretaries and phone operators before that, and so on.

You are a lot closer to reality than most here. And this is a field I work directly in, the software side of communicating to PLCs, OPC UA, SCADA systems, etc.

The automation spoken of here operate on a higher level.

 

[agent00f]

That future is coming very very soon. There are already 18 wheelers that automate driving. Figure out a way to automate delivery through some sort of docking and rail system and a lot of people will be jobless. Its not good or bad; just progress. It's up to everyone to see when the writing is on the wall and to have backup plans.

They don't need auto docking and rails. There'll be someone whose job it is to do only that, more efficiently over many trailers coming in--until his routine job gets automated down the line, too.