Research In Motion, The Downward Spiral

[wirednuts]

http://news.yahoo.com/more-bad-news-developers-giving-blackberry-too-updated-134509738.html

too little too late. microsoft should have bought them a long time ago. i used to have a blackberry too, it was awesome. but this industry is in the explosion stage.. and i think RIM is about to be deprived of any oxygen left around.

A recent survey from Baird Equity Research suggests that RIM’s slide isn’t just a trend among consumers and enterprise customers, however — developers are losing faith with as well. The firm surveyed 200 developers and found that, on a scale of 1 to 10, their outlook for the BlackBerry 10 OS fell from 6.1 in the second quarter last year and 4.6 in the first quarter of 2012 to 3.8 in the second quarter. Their outlook on BlackBerry 7 slid as well, from 3.8 to 2.8.

 

[WelshBloke]

Yet they are still doing way better than WP7 in the market.

 

[dagamer34]

Yet they are still doing way better than WP7 in the market.

And yet, there are more apps for Windows Phone than BlackBerry.

 

[WelshBloke]

And yet, there are more apps for Windows Phone than BlackBerry.

Why does that matter?

Hell I doubt Ill use either unless there's a drastic change in the mobile landscape but I dont see how the number of apps is going to help ether platform if they cant sell any phones.
Windows mobile has more apps than both of them combined (probably), maybe thats why its got double the market share of WP7?

 

[tommo123]

it doesn't matter how well microsoft are doing really as they have plenty of cash. RIM doesn't and are bleeding badly.

 

[mammador]

lol.. RIM basically got lazy and complacent, and displayed shitty marketing skills.

They became big in the pre-Android boom, when the iPhone was the only true competitor. They then let their OS stagnate, when Android and iOS prospered.

I don't think it's the end for them, yet. They need to hope BB10 is a hit, or just play it safe and sign up with Google to get Android on future phones. The latter is the safest strategic option, I feel. That said, their release of new products has been dismal, look at the Torch and then the Playbook. what makes people think they'll shake up in time for BB 10?

 

[WelshBloke]

it doesn't matter how well microsoft are doing really as they have plenty of cash. RIM doesn't and are bleeding badly.

I suppose thats true, I was just trying to put RIMs position in perspective.

 

[tommo123]

i dont know if it's true or not but BB10 would have been great for them in 2010 right? i assume (maybe wrongly) that they haven't changed it and are just desperate to get the thing out the door. if that's true, how does it stack upto ios6 (or whatevers next) and JB on android?

mammador - i think they should have gone the android route and maybe winmo as well like others have done (so should nokia IMO). the name would have made sales for them especially if they had BBM on the android market (for free - to get people into their hooks).

anyhoo, i wonder which MS will buy? nokia or RIM? hell, imagine if the buy both?

 

[WelshBloke]

i dont know if it's true or not but BB10 would have been great for them in 2010 right? i assume (maybe wrongly) that they haven't changed it and are just desperate to get the thing out the door. if that's true, how does it stack upto ios6 (or whatevers next) and JB on android?

mammador - i think they should have gone the android route and maybe winmo as well like others have done (so should nokia IMO). the name would have made sales for them especially if they had BBM on the android market (for free - to get people into their hooks).

anyhoo, i wonder which MS will buy? nokia or RIM? hell, imagine if the buy both?

I think that, unfortunately, its probably irrelevant if its better or worse. I think the days of BBOS being a viable OS in its own right are gone.

 

[wirednuts]

I suppose thats true, I was just trying to put RIMs position in perspective.

RIM could have 99% of the marketshare, but theyre losing money faster then sanity allows, and looking at the competition i dont think they have a chance... theyre screwed.

 

[WelshBloke]

RIM could have 99% of the marketshare, but theyre losing money faster then sanity allows, and looking at the competition i dont think they have a chance... theyre screwed.

They have a, still, considerable user base. Microsoft are in the position that twice as many people want to use their legacy OS that you cant buy any more rather than their new one.

I dont think either look too rosy in the mobile area but RIM certainly seem to be better positioned.

 

[tommo123]

that may be but with so many things it's not reality that matters - it's perception. MS were late to the game but are a stable company putting effort in and building on winmo7. RIM on the other hand appears desperate and are in no way stable.

i think the above does apply and puts people off buying a BB - even people who already have one are likely to jump ship. the only 2 people i know who have one:

1 - getting rid once contracts up
2 - forced by work into having one 2 months ago and hates the thing.

 

[WelshBloke]

that may be but with so many things it's not reality that matters - it's perception. MS were late to the game but are a stable company putting effort in and building on winmo7. RIM on the other hand appears desperate and are in no way stable.

i think the above does apply and puts people off buying a BB - even people who already have one are likely to jump ship. the only 2 people i know who have one:

1 - getting rid once contracts up
2 - forced by work into having one 2 months ago and hates the thing.

Microsoft have been in the mobile field for longer than apple or Google. They are doing worse now than they ever did before. They make RIM look like a success story in the mobile field.

 

[tommo123]

they were RIM when it came to 6.5. they (like RIM) had success but then did nothing while apple and google kicked ass and demolished them. the difference is microsoft has other products to subsidise a long term phone game - like the plan with the xbox. RIM is losing market share/consumer confidence/mind share/relevance and as that happens, their bargaining position with carriers gets weaker and weaker (see recent articles about their negotiating with US carriers) and so does their position to ask for £600 odd for a smartphone like apple and samsung. it just seems like they haven't accepted their position. they should sell off some of the piled up inventory they have and cost if needs be. it would:

1 - give them some income at least
2 - get some BB sold. they're useless sat in a warehouse

side note - i haven't seen anyone with a winmo7 phone. a mate had an old 6.5 thing with a stylus ages ago but that's it. everyone else has android/iphones and a very rate sighting of BB. i do think MS will do ok longer term though as they can take the hit

 

[SickBeast]

RIM should have just used Android instead of wasting all these resources on QNX and their proprietary OS10. It's such a waste.

 

[mammador]

they were RIM when it came to 6.5. they (like RIM) had success but then did nothing while apple and google kicked ass and demolished them. the difference is microsoft has other products to subsidise a long term phone game - like the plan with the xbox. RIM is losing market share/consumer confidence/mind share/relevance and as that happens, their bargaining position with carriers gets weaker and weaker (see recent articles about their negotiating with US carriers) and so does their position to ask for £600 odd for a smartphone like apple and samsung. it just seems like they haven't accepted their position. they should sell off some of the piled up inventory they have and cost if needs be. it would:

1 - give them some income at least
2 - get some BB sold. they're useless sat in a warehouse

side note - i haven't seen anyone with a winmo7 phone. a mate had an old 6.5 thing with a stylus ages ago but that's it. everyone else has android/iphones and a very rate sighting of BB. i do think MS will do ok longer term though as they can take the hit

This. MS knows which why the ICT wind is blowing, but with Windows, Exchange and Office, it doesn't need to overly invest in smartphones. RIM is essentially a smartphone firm.

 

[mammador]

They have a, still, considerable user base. Microsoft are in the position that twice as many people want to use their legacy OS that you cant buy any more rather than their new one.

I dont think either look too rosy in the mobile area but RIM certainly seem to be better positioned.

I think MS' core functions are still Office/Exchange, but it simply is executing a cover, in the admittedly unlikely event that Exchange/Office demand falls.

If Win 7 is shelved, it wouldn't seriously damage MS as a company. I doubt Win 7 makes up much of their revenue anyhow.

 

[wirednuts]

If Win 7 is shelved, it wouldn't seriously damage MS as a company. I doubt Win 7 makes up much of their revenue anyhow.

i think youre wrong. but i have no links to back that up so ill just say i think youre wrong

 

[Phokus]

They really should start looking into Android. They would have a HUGE leg up on the other android manufacturers because their secure network is still extremely valuable and they'd have a very large competitive advantage being the only android manufacturer who could access it.

 

[jpiniero]

They really should start looking into Android. They would have a HUGE leg up on the other android manufacturers because their secure network is still extremely valuable and they'd have a very large competitive advantage being the only android manufacturer who could access it.

That ship has sailed. They would run out of cash before they could bring a device to market.

 

[Dominato3r]

That ship has sailed. They would run out of cash before they could bring a device to market.

This. I honestly don't think they can come back barring some unforeseen feature from bb10 that completely changes the game.

I think their competitors realize this as well and are just waiting for the inevitable sale/ patent sharing scenarios that will come up. Those security patents have some real value.

i think youre wrong. but i have no links to back that up so ill just say i think youre wrong

Windows is a large part of Microsoft's cash flow but they are a diverse enough company that they can afford one division or another sucking for a while - think online services division which has been a sink of billions of dollars for them

 

[Suspicious-Teach8788]

Why does that matter?

Hell I doubt Ill use either unless there's a drastic change in the mobile landscape but I dont see how the number of apps is going to help ether platform if they cant sell any phones.
Windows mobile has more apps than both of them combined (probably), maybe thats why its got double the market share of WP7?

because it SHOWS that people are investing time and energy into developing for WP7. It shows people believe that it can get better.

WP7 as an OS is fine. BB is... eh. Just imagine if Android tablets had the same app support as the iPad. I bet you there'd be a lot more people jumping on board. Apps dictate what you can do on a mobile device, and if there's nothing on it, then people will still think of the BB as that device you can text nicely and send emails on.

Why else do you think the Smoked by a Windows phone campaign was introduced? It's showing you that you can do A, B, C, D on a Windows Phone, and you can do it quickly--things that people care about and do on a daily basis. That's what software is about... taking advantage of the hardware. And that's what people will think when they think of a mobile platform--what can I do on it?

 

[WelshBloke]

because it SHOWS that people are investing time and energy into developing for WP7. It shows people believe that it can get better...

It isn't going to get that much better though. Microsoft have already EOL'd it and moved on to WP8, and given that WP7 already has a tiny install base why should devs stick with 7 over 8?

 

[Mopetar]

RIM should have just used Android instead of wasting all these resources on QNX and their proprietary OS10. It's such a waste.

How would that have changed anything? Right now they'd just be another company not making any money and watching Samsung eat up all of the profit.

 

[Dominato3r]

It isn't going to get that much better though. Microsoft have already EOL'd it and moved on to WP8, and given that WP7 already has a tiny install base why should devs stick with 7 over 8?

Why not? Everything you write for 7 will still run on 8