Republicans Headed on a Collision Course for a Brokered Convention

[TalonStrike]

In order for the Republicans to have a nominee at their convention later this year, they need one of their candidates to gain over half of the delegates. This may not happen, however. The first three states reveal that Republicans are conflicted over who their nominee should be. Santorum won Iowa, Romney won New Hampshire, and Gingrich will likely win South Carolina. If this trend continues, Santorum will collect delegates from the midwest states, Romney will collect delegates from the coastal states, and Gingrich will collect delegates from the southern states, setting up a situation similar to the map shown below. Ron Paul will likely finish in a strong second or third in many of the states, thus splitting up the delegates further. Even if Romney leads in the delegate count, Gingrich will be too stubborn to drop out so long as he has even the slimmest chance of winning, and Ron Paul will also refuse to drop out so that he can continue to spread his message. The only candidate that is humble enough to drop out once it becomes clear he can't win will be Santorum. The Republicans are practically handing Obama his re-election.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

Let me guess, voting for Ron Paul will fix everything

 

[TalonStrike]

Let me guess, voting for Ron Paul will fix everything

nope.

 

[CanOWorms]

Shouldn't Romney win Utah? On that map, you have it assigned to Santorum.

 

[cwjerome]

That map is sketchy, I'd put AZ and Utah in the Romney camp.

My prediction: Gingrich and Paul are just milking as much popularity and message as they can... by the time the convention nears they'll be supporting Romney, because they'd rather have him than Obama.

 

[Anarchist420]

That map is sketchy, I'd put AZ and Utah in the Romney camp.

My prediction: Gingrich and Paul are just milking as much popularity and message as they can... by the time the convention nears they'll be supporting Romney, because they'd rather have him than Obama.

Dr. Paul would never support Romney. I think most of his supporters would rather have Obama anyway. Hopefully, the remnants of society will be smarter than society before the fall.

 

[Jhhnn]

I'll grant that Colorado Repubs are a little nutty, But Santorum? Only in Colorado Springs, the new home of the Fundie Fringe...

He'll likely self destruct before the convention, anyway, start speaking in tongues during a debate, or something equally weird...

 

[nageov3t]

Romney will take Utah, Nevada, Florida, and Michigan at least. probably Ohio too.

I don't really see where Santorum gets the money to compete after South Carolina.

 

[rockyct]

I can hope for this, but I doubt it. Romney has too good of an organization to let it happen. Santorum will be out within a few weeks and Gingrich is his own worst enemy. Paul will stick around until the end but he won't get more than 15% of the delegates.

I do hope Gingrich wins today in SC so he can continue is Newtular attack on Romney.

 

[Sinsear]

I seem to remember last election when the Paulbots were creaming their pants with talk of a brokered convention and "stealth delegates".

 

[nageov3t]

I seem to remember last election when the Paulbots were creaming their pants with talk of a brokered convention and "stealth delegates".

I don't think Ron Paul would push it... Rand Paul's future is too important to his visions of a dynasty to completely alienate the entire Republican party.