Originally posted by: M0RPH
Originally posted by: Rio Rebel
The fact that Hillary is beating Obama in "swing states" means absolutely nothing to the general election. She's not running against Obama in the general election. It is just as reasonable to assume that Obama will actually do better in these states as it is to assume that Hillary will carry these states in the general election against McCain.
Obama has trouble with blue-collar working-class whites. This is a BIG BIG problem, because these people will flock to McCain in droves, and Obama can say bye-bye to states like OH, PENN, MI, maybe NJ Add to that the fact the his chances in FL are pretty much nil, and he's got major problems with electoral college math.
SurveyUSA just complete a comprehensive survey of voters in every state, and their math doesn't quite match up with your math. They polled 600 likely voters in every state on a McCain vs Hillary matchup and a McCain vs Obama matchup. Both Democrats ended up beating McCain, but Obama actually won by more electoral votes than Hillary did. But what's interesting where those EVs came from.
Obama actually wins HUGE in Ohio, as does Hillary. Obama loses Pennsylvania by a good sized margin, but Hillary barely wins the state. Hillary handily wins NJ, while Obama and McCain are pretty much tied. Michigan is really close, with McCain edging out Hillary and Obama edging out McCain, both by very small margins. Florida goes huge for Hillary, while McCain beats Obama by a small amount. So of the states you name, Pennsylvania, Florida and NJ are better for the Democrats if Clinton is the candidate, while the others don't matter very much.
But that's ignoring the bigger issue. As it stands right now, both Democrats would beat McCain, the question is how close the race would be. The 4 EV difference between their victories isn't important, what's important is how many EVs are currently up for grabs...in other words, how easy would it be for McCain to flip a few states and beat either candidate? I'll count within 2% as "close" for this exercise.
Obama vs McCain: 280 to 258
Obama Barely Wins:
Michigan - 17
Virginia - 13
New Hampshire - 4
Obama Barely Loses:
Florida - 27
New Jersey - 15
North Carolina - 15
Texas - 34
Hillary vs McCain: 276 to 262
Hillary Barely Wins:
New Mexico - 4
Pennsylvania - 21
Hillary Barely Loses:
Michigan - 17
Tennessee - 11
Washington - 11
Obama, who can lose 10 EVs and still win the election, needs to hang on to 34 EVs and could take up to 91 EVs away from McCain. Hillary, who can lose 6 EVs and still win, needs to hang on to 25 EVs and can take up to 39 EVs away from McCain. Under the possible scenarios you could get from the electoral math above, it doesn't look like Obama has as much of a problem with the math as you might think.