I'll admit poll data isn't perfect, but what exactly are you basing your analysis on, a magic 8 ball? Your insights into the blue-collar working-class mind aside, in order for the election to come down to any 4 states, the REST of the states need to be split up such that victory is impossible without those 4 states. In Obama's case, that doesn't appear to be particularly true. First of all, electoral math that shows him beating McCain quite handily already has Obama losing 2 of those 4 states (PN and NJ). Even if he lost the other two, all he would need to do is get Florida and he'd STILL win the election. You're trying to compare Obama and Hillary directly, but the problem is that the scenarios that have them winning the election involve them winning in very different ways. Arguing that one or the other gives a better chance at a handful of states ignores the much larger picture.Originally posted by: M0RPH
Look man, you can choose to put all your faith in that poll data if you like. I would argue that the Ohio poll data shown there is SERIOUSLY flawed. There are so many people there among the blue-collar working-class that are going to have a hard time voting for an inexperienced black man over a very experienced white man, war hero. Even those who are tenuously supprting Obama at first are going to be easily swayed by the same type of fear mongering as in Hillary's 3am ad, except those ads are going to be 10x more effective with McCain running them. Forget about all the elderly folks, the most reliable voters, who are going to be easily captured by steady old man McCain.Originally posted by: Rainsford
Obama, who can lose 10 EVs and still win the election, needs to hang on to 34 EVs and could take up to 91 EVs away from McCain. Hillary, who can lose 6 EVs and still win, needs to hang on to 25 EVs and can take up to 39 EVs away from McCain. Under the possible scenarios you could get from the electoral math above, it doesn't look like Obama has as much of a problem with the math as you might think.
Mark my words, this election is going to come down to those working class manufacturing swing states, OH, MI, PN, NJ. And Obama is going to be dangerously close to losing all or most of those against McCain.