Refining 101

shrumpage

Golden Member
Mar 1, 2004
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I found this through digg, thought i'd share it here:

Refining 101: Summer Gasoline
Posted by Robert Rapier on March 16, 2007 - 11:00am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: ethanol, gasoline blending, refining, summer gasoline



Just what is summer gasoline? Twice a year, in the fall and in the spring, you hear about the seasonal gasoline transition. However, most people probably don?t understand what this actually means. AAA recently provided a Top 10 list explaining the recent rise in gasoline prices, and summer gasoline checked in at #7:


7. The summer blend switchover. This transition from winter-blend to summer-blend fuel, a concoction that causes less smog, occurs every spring. It causes a dip in gasoline supplies as refineries in the U.S. shut down temporarily to retool their production facilities.
That's only partially correct, and is probably the extent of most people's understanding of this transition. But given that I am very keen that people should understand the energy industry, it is worth a review, and a layman's explanation. I explained the details behind this transition in Here Comes Winter Gasoline. But let?s review some concepts.

There are two key (although not the only) specifications that refiners must meet for gasoline. The gasoline needs to have the proper octane, and it needs to have the proper Reid vapor pressure (RVP). While the octane of a particular grade is constant throughout the year, the RVP spec changes with the seasons.
The RVP is based on a test that measures vapor pressure of the gasoline blend at 100 degrees F. Normal atmospheric pressure varies, but is usually around 14.7 lbs per square inch (psi). Atmospheric pressure is caused by the weight of the air over our heads. If a liquid has a vapor pressure of greater than normal atmospheric pressure, that liquid boils. For example, when you heat a pan of water, the vapor pressure increases until it reaches atmospheric pressure. At that point, the water begins to boil.

In the summer, when temperatures can exceed 100 degrees F in many locations, it is important that the RVP of gasoline is well below 14.7. Otherwise, it can pressure up your gas tanks and gas cans, and it can boil in open containers. Gas that is vaporized ends up in the atmosphere, and contributes to air pollution. Therefore, the EPA has declared that summer gasoline blends may not exceed 7.8 psi in some locations, and 9.0 psi in others. The particulars vary, but key considerations are the altitude and motor vehicle density of a specific location. The EIA summarizes the key points:


As gasoline evaporates, volatile organic compounds (VOC?s) enter the atmosphere and contribute to ozone formation. Gasoline?s propensity to evaporate is measured by Reid vapor pressure (RVP). In order to control VOC emissions, the Federal Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 require that all gasoline be limited to an RVP maximum of 9.0 psi during the summer high ozone season, which the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) established as running from June 1 to September 15. The Act also authorized the EPA to set more stringent standards for nonattainment areas. As a result, EPA limits areas designated as ?high volatility non-attainment? to a maximum RVP of 7.8 psi during the high ozone season. Some States elected to require even more stringent restrictions to achieve local clean air goals, and require 7.2- and 7.0-psi gasolines.
Butane, which has an RVP of 52 psi, can be blended into gasoline in higher proportions in the winter because the vapor pressure allowance is higher. There are 2 advantages in doing this. First, butane is a cheaper blending component than most of the other ingredients. That makes fall and winter gasoline cheaper to produce. But butane is also abundant, so that means that gasoline supplies increase in the winter because more butane is thrown into the mix. Not only that, but this all takes place after summer driving season, when demand typically falls off. These factors normally combine each year to reduce gasoline prices in the fall (even in non-election years). The RVP is stepped back down to summer levels starting in the spring, and this usually causes prices to increase.

There are some misconceptions that I often seen repeated about this seasonal transition. One is that it is the reason that spring and fall maintenance are done. That is not the case. Most, if not all refineries can carry out this transition without shutting down or interrupting production. The reason that maintenance is done in the spring and fall is that it provides a combination of moderate weather (the inside of a vessel can be unbearable in the summer) and off-peak demand. Vessels must be inspected, new equipment must be installed, catalyst change-outs occur, etc. This is similar to tuning up your car to keep it in proper running condition. But the seasonal maintenance is unrelated to the gasoline transition. In fact, for reasons I won't get into here, seasonal maintenance often complicates the transition.

Another misconception that some have is that they can save money by buying cheap gas in the winter and storing it for the summer. Remember that winter gasoline will pressure up as the weather heats up, and the contained butane will start to vaporize out of the mix. You will end up with less gasoline than you paid for, and you will be contributing to the air pollution problem that summer gasoline was designed to avoid. If, on the other hand, you were to buy summer gasoline and try to store it until winter, you might find yourself having problems getting the fuel to ignite, due to the lower vapor pressure. This would be like putting a little bit of diesel in your gasoline ? not very good for your car. So buy and use gasoline in the correct season.


The Politics of Ethanol Blending


I should also mention a bit about ethanol blending. The blending of ethanol into the gasoline pool has been controversial because (among other things) it increases the vapor pressure of gasoline blends. This has resulted in the need for a 1 psi waiver for ethanol-containing fuels. From the previously linked EIA report:

As a part of the Clean Air Act Amendments, conventional gasoline containing 10 percent ethanol was allowed to exceed the Federal RVP maximums by 1 psi.
This of course means that ethanol will exacerbate smog at certain times of the year, and has resulted in a campaign by Senator Diane Feinstein to limit ethanol blending in California:


California contends its refineries can make clean-burning gasoline without oxygenates such as ethanol or MTBE. In fact, California?s Sen. Diane Feinstein contends ethanol?s volatility may be the cause for increasing smog levels in Southern California since the waiver was denied and more ethanol was added to the state?s gasoline supply.
Recently, Feinstein asked the EPA and the California Air Resources Board to investigate the impact of ethanol-blended gasoline on California?s air quality.

She said air quality in the South Coast Air Quality Management Zone has gotten worse this year compared to last and "the switch to ethanol-blended gasoline is considered one of the main culprits in increased ozone."

"Since ethanol?s volatility increases smog, particularly in the summer, I believe we need to look carefully at its impact on air quality," said the senator.

However, it looks like she is losing this battle for political reasons:

In the face-off between California and Corn Belt states over ethanol, California lost again this month. Federal officials concede that the corn-based fuel additive can increase smog and soot pollution from vehicles. But in a ruling shocking in its disregard for public health, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency refused for a second time to scrap the rule requiring California to blend ethanol in its gasoline.
The EPA conceded that California air quality officials are right about ethanol's polluting effect in summer. Nonetheless, in its tortured ruling, the federal agency said California had not "clearly demonstrated" that the ethanol requirement would delay or interfere with the state's ability to meet federal clean air standards. Incredibly, the ruling said that even if California had demonstrated that the ethanol rule prevented the state from meeting clean air standards, the EPA "would deny the waiver." Why? "This reduction in the use of ethanol would undermine the potential benefits vis a vis energy security and support for rural and agricultural economy that Congress expected" from its ethanol rule.

The EPA ruling's effect is to increase payouts to one special interest, Midwest corn producers. For that California endures higher gasoline prices and dirtier air.

California cannot afford to let this assault on public health, fairness and common sense stand. U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., has persuaded the Senate Energy Committee to add a clause to a pending energy bill that would exempt California from the ethanol rule during summer months. All the state's elected officials should join her in that fight.

All energy issues seem to be completely entangled with politics, and the sad fact is that the politics often trump the science. Ethanol blending is a perfect example where we are willing to exempt certain pollution issues "for the greater good."


Conclusion

Hopefully that was an easy-to-understand explanation of the seasonal gasoline transition in the U.S. The purpose of the transition is to curb pollution, but as the last section demonstrates the politics often interfere with the original intent. Now the next time you hear "season gasoline transition", you will know exactly what they are talking about and what the expected impact on supply and price will be.

linky

Much more informative then 'oil baron' posts.

The part i find most disturbing is about EPA's ruling about CA having to use ethanol even though it produces more smog. Gotta love needless government regulation.
 

Thump553

Lifer
Jun 2, 2000
12,832
2,618
136
Explain to me why gasoline has jumped 30+ cents per gallon here in the last two weeks. There's no international crisis, no major refinery diasters and this is usually a season when gas prices fall as supplies ramp up (and before the summer driving demand kicks in). From what I've seen in the paper the oil companies are saying a few refineries' production is down because of routine maintenence.

When gas prices go down, it is always a penny to a nickel (at most) a week, but it rises far faster. Even our GOP governor is called for yet another federal investigation, which will be essentially useless given the state of anti-trust law today.

Some key words to finding out the real answer: oligopoly, cartel and vertical market power.
 

johnnobts

Golden Member
Jun 26, 2005
1,105
0
71
Explain to me why gasoline has jumped 30+ cents per gallon here in the last two weeks.

____________________

he just did, dude. switching seasonal blends causes the refineries to produce a temporary shortage every spring. check gas price history. as the son of a "big oil baron" who works for saudi aramco (environmental and saftey) i can tell you this is just the way things happen.
 

3chordcharlie

Diamond Member
Mar 30, 2004
9,859
1
81
The part I find troubling is that this is complete BS.

Seasonal recipe changes could explain minor price fluctuations. Period. That's it.

Even if they were the cause, why haven't gasoline companies made frequent, publicized statements about this?

Because it isn't the issue. Speculation and/or manipulation in the oil market, not at the refinery level causes the changes in price we bitch about. When refinery problems cause price shocks, we get it, and for the most part we don't bitch.
 

johnnobts

Golden Member
Jun 26, 2005
1,105
0
71
Speculation and/or manipulation in the oil market, not at the refinery level causes the changes in price we bitch about. When refinery problems cause price shocks, we get it, and for the most part we don't bitch.

________________

correct, speculation plays a part in the price of gas at the pump, about $10 out of every barrell is rooted in speculation. the rest is driven by good old supply/demand.
 

DealMonkey

Lifer
Nov 25, 2001
13,136
1
0
I was going to say something about daylight savings coming early and giving Americans more daylight hours to drive?
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: shrumpage

linky

Much more informative then 'oil baron' posts.

The part i find most disturbing is about EPA's ruling about CA having to use ethanol even though it produces more smog. Gotta love needless government regulation.

Oh please, informative doesn;t make it any less of an oil baron apologist post.

Bush waived the summer blend requirments and prices still went through the roof.

Just meant extra profit for you and his buddies.
 

KMurphy

Golden Member
May 16, 2000
1,014
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Another major reason for the volatility is much reduced storage capacity. The link below is one example of a demolished tank farm that was used for gasoline storage. There are many more demoed tank farms around the country.

Text
 

Wheezer

Diamond Member
Nov 2, 1999
6,731
1
81
Originally posted by: Thump553
Explain to me why gasoline has jumped 30+ cents per gallon here in the last two weeks.


Read you might learn something.


Reflect for just a moment on how many people you see walk out of your favorite grocery store. How many of those people walk out with plastic bags. when offered paper or plastic.

Multiply that by the number of people in the US that are walking out of their favorite grocery stores with those same bags at any given moment of the day. Forget for a moment that they may have a box or two of plastic garbage bags inside the plastic bags they are taking home full of groceries. That's a lot of bags isn't?

Now try to fathom the rest of the world doing the same thing everyday.

Now after that take a look at that list again and think about how many of those items are put into use by people like yourself everyday across the US and then figure the population of the rest of the world...and now perhaps you may have a grasp of why fuel is costing so much.

Keep in mind, that the rest of the world had been paying far more than us for sometime.

You wanna blame someone of the price of gas? do some research...you may find that if our country had gotten off it's collective fat ass back in the 70's like Brazil did...we would be leading the idea of alternative fuels rather than trying to play catch-up.

(One place to start is ask GM why they worked with the country of Brazil to develop engines that run on sugar cane ethanol and here they developed the SUV.)
 

CycloWizard

Lifer
Sep 10, 2001
12,348
1
81
Originally posted by: 3chordcharlie
The part I find troubling is that this is complete BS.

Seasonal recipe changes could explain minor price fluctuations. Period. That's it.

Even if they were the cause, why haven't gasoline companies made frequent, publicized statements about this?

Because it isn't the issue. Speculation and/or manipulation in the oil market, not at the refinery level causes the changes in price we bitch about. When refinery problems cause price shocks, we get it, and for the most part we don't bitch.
How the hell would you know? What do you know about refinery operation? I recently read a psychology study saying how feigned knowledge bias is playing an ever-increasing role in public debate. The conclusion of the report was that feigning knowledge on a subject caused more damage than just admitting that you don't know what you're talking about. They studied the phenomenon by giving people a list of words to define. Some of the words were completely made up. People like you tried to give a definition to the made up words so that they would sound intelligent. Instead, they look like idiots because the word doesn't have a definition.
 

3chordcharlie

Diamond Member
Mar 30, 2004
9,859
1
81
Originally posted by: CycloWizard
Originally posted by: 3chordcharlie
The part I find troubling is that this is complete BS.

Seasonal recipe changes could explain minor price fluctuations. Period. That's it.

Even if they were the cause, why haven't gasoline companies made frequent, publicized statements about this?

Because it isn't the issue. Speculation and/or manipulation in the oil market, not at the refinery level causes the changes in price we bitch about. When refinery problems cause price shocks, we get it, and for the most part we don't bitch.
How the hell would you know? What do you know about refinery operation? I recently read a psychology study saying how feigned knowledge bias is playing an ever-increasing role in public debate. The conclusion of the report was that feigning knowledge on a subject caused more damage than just admitting that you don't know what you're talking about. They studied the phenomenon by giving people a list of words to define. Some of the words were completely made up. People like you tried to give a definition to the made up words so that they would sound intelligent. Instead, they look like idiots because the word doesn't have a definition.

Because the price fluctuations are too big, and too temporary to be 'refinery shocks'. They are market-driven. Maybe the average price of gas is a few cents a gallon higher in the summer, but that's not what people are noticing or what they bitch about.

In the past, this largely meant OPEC, now it doesn't (because OPEC is not really restricting capacity). Now it means speculation.

I'm not sure how johnnobots gets the $10/gallon figure, for one because the number varies wildly depending on the market price and conditions. But it is certainly very substantial.

Think of it htis way - in the worst case, this 'recipe change' could cause a large increase in price, all summer.

Twice a year, the price would change. This would have nothing to do with the price instability which is actually the thing that frustrates people most.
 

shrumpage

Golden Member
Mar 1, 2004
1,304
0
0
Originally posted by: johnnobts
Explain to me why gasoline has jumped 30+ cents per gallon here in the last two weeks.

____________________

he just did, dude. switching seasonal blends causes the refineries to produce a temporary shortage every spring. check gas price history. as the son of a "big oil baron" who works for saudi aramco (environmental and saftey) i can tell you this is just the way things happen.

I don't know where you live, or the economy where you live, how can make any educated answer to your question?

Gas here has only moved down 5 cents in the last 4 months, explain that.



 

shrumpage

Golden Member
Mar 1, 2004
1,304
0
0
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: shrumpage

linky

Much more informative then 'oil baron' posts.

The part i find most disturbing is about EPA's ruling about CA having to use ethanol even though it produces more smog. Gotta love needless government regulation.

Oh please, informative doesn;t make it any less of an oil baron apologist post.

Bush waived the summer blend requirments and prices still went through the roof.

Just meant extra profit for you and his buddies.

Who are these "oil barons" you keep talking about?

Does California use the same forumlation as the rest of the country?



 

shrumpage

Golden Member
Mar 1, 2004
1,304
0
0
People are reading my OP with their own agenda in mind, and assuming what I think. I didn't justiy the high prices or make excuses for them, or defend bush.

With all the dicussion about oil and prices, i thought it was nice to have a explanation of aspect of the industry: What do they mean by 'switching over to summer fuel.'

The only part i commented, and found disturbing about the article was not alledge costs increase to when switching from winter to summer, but the issue with the EPA forcing california to use Ethanol even though the EPA admitted it caused more smog!

Doesn't that bother anyone? Or did every just assume Shrumpage is defending the oil companies and bush and co.?
 

DealMonkey

Lifer
Nov 25, 2001
13,136
1
0
I think it's difficult to support a conspiracy theory against oil companies because there's never been any hard evidence of wrong-doing. Not to mention that there's so much scrutiny on energy and energy companies right now, that if the oil companies were actually doing something illicit, I find it hard to believe no one's found out about it and spread the news wide and far.

Regardless, the consumer gas market is one of the strangest ones I've observed. Gas prices jumped from $2.69/gal to $3.13/gal average in California in the course of the last 30 days. Check the chart for yourself:

http://www.californiagasprices.com/retail_price_chart.aspx

That's crazy. Not only that, but while driving along a particular street in Orange County, CA today, there were two Arco stations that I passed. The first one had regular unleaded at $3.02/gal, the second one has regular unleaded for $3.19/gal. The two stations were no more than around 1/2 mile to 3/4 mile apart.

So yeah, I want to believe, but why hasn't the smoking gun been found?
 

Dissipate

Diamond Member
Jan 17, 2004
6,815
0
0
I think that around summer time all of the oil barons get together and conspire to cut supply in order to raise the price. In the old days they probably had a secret meeting place, but now they probably just do it over the Internet in an encrypted chat room/video conference.
 

CycloWizard

Lifer
Sep 10, 2001
12,348
1
81
Originally posted by: 3chordcharlie
Think of it htis way - in the worst case, this 'recipe change' could cause a large increase in price, all summer.
This simple-minded BS is exactly what I'm talking about. You think that all the refinery needs to do is chuck some additive into the mix and away goes the new gasoline mixture, thus the cost difference should be constant. Unfortunately, things are a lot more complicated than that. If one wants to produce a gasoline with lower vapor pressure and constant everything else, the average molecular weight of the mixture must be increased, which involves significantly changing cracking and distillation units. Cracking units break down larger hydrocarbons preferentially to the size that the refiner desires. It does so using precious metal catalysts which cost hundreds of dollars per ounce, and a given reactor will use literally thousands of pounds of catalyst. The catalyst is a loss because it is poisoned with time due to undesirable reactions that inevitably occur, so the money spent on the catalyst itself is lost. Similar problems arise in the distillation, but I'll ignore those for the sake of brevity. I'll simply note that the summer blend will have a higher heat capacity and lower volatility, both which make distillation more expensive.

Refiners are expending lots of money on research for reactive distillation units that could reduce the impact of the transition period, but these operations are so complicated that they make my head spin. The cost of running them is mind boggling simply because of the engineering expertise needed to oversee their operation. In the long run, there might be cost savings there, but that's still at least a few years off.
 

Dissipate

Diamond Member
Jan 17, 2004
6,815
0
0
Originally posted by: DealMonkey
I think it's difficult to support a conspiracy theory against oil companies because there's never been any hard evidence of wrong-doing. Not to mention that there's so much scrutiny on energy and energy companies right now, that if the oil companies were actually doing something illicit, I find it hard to believe no one's found out about it and spread the news wide and far.

Regardless, the consumer gas market is one of the strangest ones I've observed. Gas prices jumped from $2.69/gal to $3.13/gal average in California in the course of the last 30 days. Check the chart for yourself:

http://www.californiagasprices.com/retail_price_chart.aspx

That's crazy. Not only that, but while driving along a particular street in Orange County, CA today, there were two Arco stations that I passed. The first one had regular unleaded at $3.02/gal, the second one has regular unleaded for $3.19/gal. The two stations were no more than around 1/2 mile to 3/4 mile apart.

So yeah, I want to believe, but why hasn't the smoking gun been found?

It's not strange. It is called volatility, many markets have volatility, not just oil.

Why has the smoking gun never been found? Simple. It's called a market and in a market tricks and scams do not work. In the case of oil the classic trick that has been charged of the oil companies is cutting supply to increase the price through cartels. This has been refuted in theory and in practice. Furthermore, every firm 'limits' the supply of what it produces to match demand.

No firm in the history of the world has been able to artificially jack up its price. All prices are ultimately set by consumers, and if they are not set by the consumers (i.e. if a firm tries to jack up the price beyond the equilibrium) one of two things will happen. Consumers will either find alternatives to the product entirely, or another firm will emerge that offers the equilibrium price.

This is not to say that a firm can not do things to alter the price of its product, but the only way it can do this is by improving the quality, releasing it at a key time, or by increasing demand through advertising. Even after all of these things it is ultimately consumers who determine the final price of a product.
 

3chordcharlie

Diamond Member
Mar 30, 2004
9,859
1
81
Originally posted by: CycloWizard
Originally posted by: 3chordcharlie
Think of it htis way - in the worst case, this 'recipe change' could cause a large increase in price, all summer.
This simple-minded BS is exactly what I'm talking about. You think that all the refinery needs to do is chuck some additive into the mix and away goes the new gasoline mixture, thus the cost difference should be constant. Unfortunately, things are a lot more complicated than that. If one wants to produce a gasoline with lower vapor pressure and constant everything else, the average molecular weight of the mixture must be increased, which involves significantly changing cracking and distillation units. Cracking units break down larger hydrocarbons preferentially to the size that the refiner desires. It does so using precious metal catalysts which cost hundreds of dollars per ounce, and a given reactor will use literally thousands of pounds of catalyst. The catalyst is a loss because it is poisoned with time due to undesirable reactions that inevitably occur, so the money spent on the catalyst itself is lost. Similar problems arise in the distillation, but I'll ignore those for the sake of brevity. I'll simply note that the summer blend will have a higher heat capacity and lower volatility, both which make distillation more expensive.

Refiners are expending lots of money on research for reactive distillation units that could reduce the impact of the transition period, but these operations are so complicated that they make my head spin. The cost of running them is mind boggling simply because of the engineering expertise needed to oversee their operation. In the long run, there might be cost savings there, but that's still at least a few years off.

I didn't make a firm statement about the magnitude of the change in price.
 

Dissipate

Diamond Member
Jan 17, 2004
6,815
0
0
Originally posted by: 3chordcharlie
Speculation and/or manipulation in the oil market, not at the refinery level causes the changes in price we bitch about. When refinery problems cause price shocks, we get it, and for the most part we don't bitch.

Oh yeah, blame the wild eyed spectators. :roll:

Good god 3chord, I thought you were at least a tad bit better than that.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: CycloWizard
Originally posted by: 3chordcharlie
Think of it htis way - in the worst case, this 'recipe change' could cause a large increase in price, all summer.
This simple-minded BS is exactly what I'm talking about. You think that all the refinery needs to do is chuck some additive into the mix and away goes the new gasoline mixture, thus the cost difference should be constant. Unfortunately, things are a lot more complicated than that. If one wants to produce a gasoline with lower vapor pressure and constant everything else, the average molecular weight of the mixture must be increased, which involves significantly changing cracking and distillation units. Cracking units break down larger hydrocarbons preferentially to the size that the refiner desires. It does so using precious metal catalysts which cost hundreds of dollars per ounce, and a given reactor will use literally thousands of pounds of catalyst. The catalyst is a loss because it is poisoned with time due to undesirable reactions that inevitably occur, so the money spent on the catalyst itself is lost. Similar problems arise in the distillation, but I'll ignore those for the sake of brevity. I'll simply note that the summer blend will have a higher heat capacity and lower volatility, both which make distillation more expensive.

Refiners are expending lots of money on research for reactive distillation units that could reduce the impact of the transition period, but these operations are so complicated that they make my head spin. The cost of running them is mind boggling simply because of the engineering expertise needed to oversee their operation. In the long run, there might be cost savings there, but that's still at least a few years off.

What a nice load of BS :roll:
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: DealMonkey
I think it's difficult to support a conspiracy theory against oil companies because there's never been any hard evidence of wrong-doing. Not to mention that there's so much scrutiny on energy and energy companies right now, that if the oil companies were actually doing something illicit, I find it hard to believe no one's found out about it and spread the news wide and far.

Regardless, the consumer gas market is one of the strangest ones I've observed. Gas prices jumped from $2.69/gal to $3.13/gal average in California in the course of the last 30 days. Check the chart for yourself:

http://www.californiagasprices.com/retail_price_chart.aspx

That's crazy. Not only that, but while driving along a particular street in Orange County, CA today, there were two Arco stations that I passed. The first one had regular unleaded at $3.02/gal, the second one has regular unleaded for $3.19/gal. The two stations were no more than around 1/2 mile to 3/4 mile apart.

So yeah, I want to believe, but why hasn't the smoking gun been found?

Because it starts at the top.

The most a President has eve been held accountable for is lies about a Hotel tape and a blow job under the Oval Office desk.
 

CycloWizard

Lifer
Sep 10, 2001
12,348
1
81
Originally posted by: 3chordcharlie
I didn't make a firm statement about the magnitude of the change in price.
You're right - you said that the worst-case scenario is a single increase in price for the entire summer. I just told you why you're wrong - because there's a large one-time capital cost associated with the changeover. Or do you think that hundreds of millions (or, potentially, billions) of dollars' worth of catalyst would just be a blip on the radar?
 

3chordcharlie

Diamond Member
Mar 30, 2004
9,859
1
81
Originally posted by: CycloWizard
Originally posted by: 3chordcharlie
I didn't make a firm statement about the magnitude of the change in price.
You're right - you said that the worst-case scenario is a single increase in price for the entire summer. I just told you why you're wrong - because there's a large one-time capital cost associated with the changeover. Or do you think that hundreds of millions (or, potentially, billions) of dollars' worth of catalyst would just be a blip on the radar?

What you're saying - and it is exactly equivalent to what I already said - is that processing needs to be engaged for summer fuel which is expensive.

Thus gas would cost more in the summer.

Ignoring the fact that this has been traditionally blamed by the oil companies on increased demand due to 'summer road trips', we're going to assume that this process makes a noticeable difference to the price of gas.

The magnitude of this difference ought to be fairly constant over the course of the summer-gas season.

It doesn't account for wildly fluctuating prices, and it doesn't account for the price of gas going up before a long weekend. The price issues people complain about are the result of market forces, which is what the apologists have always said. The difference is for the past 2-3 years, they have been right.

Speculation has a bigger impact on price instability than any recipe change ever will.
 

CycloWizard

Lifer
Sep 10, 2001
12,348
1
81
Originally posted by: 3chordcharlie
The magnitude of this difference ought to be fairly constant over the course of the summer-gas season.
No, it shouldn't. This is what you don't seem to get. If I go buy a car with cash, does that imply an increase of my monthly bills over the course of the following 3 months? No. The process doesn't cost any more to operate than the previous one. There is simply a one-time capital expenditure.
Speculation has a bigger impact on price instability than any recipe change ever will.
I'll ask again: how do you know? Simple answer: you don't. You've just based this conclusion on some speculation of your own.