- Sep 26, 2000
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http://pewresearch.org/pubs/773/fewer-voters-identify-as-republicans
note this is from 2008
Fewer Voters Identify as Republicans
Democrats Now Have the Advantage in "Swing" States
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/24/1149368/-Demographics-Will-Determine-the-Election
With just two weeks left until the 2012 election and with the race extremely tight turnout and demographics will be the determining factors of who will be President in 2012. In the 2004 election the demographics were white voters making up 77 percent of the electorate, black voters 11, Hispanic 8, and all others 4. A total of 122,349,000 people voted in that election and of course George Bush won by 3 percent of the vote.
The next election 2008 the demographics had changed dramatically with only 74 percent of the electorate being white, 13 percent black, 9 percent Hispanic, and 4 percent other nationalities. In that election with over 80 percent of the non white vote and 43 percent of the white vote going for Barack Obama he won easily with 365 electoral votes and almost a ten million advantage in the popular vote. It was a definite fact that demographic support by the President led to his landslide victory. The fact that the demographics had shifted by three percent or a total of over 3 million vote advantage for the President was the huge determining factor. 131,407,000 people participated in the 2012 election and increase of 6.8 percent from 2004. This election was the turning point in American history of how demographics will then and forever play a huge role in how elections and American policy will be determined.
Now comes 2012 and how much demographics have changed since 2008 and who votes will again determine who will be President of the United States. Will the demographics again shift three points? There is no reason to believe they want and for the assumptions to be made in the last part of this article we are gonna believe that they will. The reasons are there are now 24 millions Latinos registered to vote in this nation. This makes up about 12 percent of the electorate eligible to vote. Latino turnout will be huge in determining the winner in 2012 and there is plenty of justification that the Latino population is energized to vote in this election. There is also no reason to believe that the black vote will fall from levels of 2012 so with these two groups energized it is hard to see where there will be any type of lack of enthusiasm which many polls seem to want to suggest today.
So now let us determine how this election might play out and what the actual popular vote totals will be for the candidates. In 2004 the white percentage of the electorate was 77 percent, In 2008 it dropped to 74 percent, so there is no reason especially with the Hispanic voting age population growing by 50 thousand a month that it will not drop again. We are determining in this exercise that it will drop three percent again and be about 71 percent of the total voting population. The black voting population grew from 11 percent to 13 percent from 2004 to 2008 so it seems logical that it could jump two percent again to 15 percent. The Latino vote only grew from 8 to 9 percent in the years 2004 to 2008 so we'll only let it grow one more point to 10 percent which may or may not turn out to be a huge mistake in this hypothesis. There is plenty of evidence that it could grow to 11 or 12 but there is no mistake that the total will be ten percent.
Now, I can't find the link to the article I wanted to quote but what is said was that every four years Republicans are losing .85 percent of their voters and Dems are gaining .85 percent for a total of a 1.7 percent swing.
While thats not a lot consider that from Obama's 2008 win until the 2016 election the Republicans have to win over 1.7 percent of the electorate. Not just gain 1.7 percent but win over 1.7 percent of Democrats. Otherwise they need to gain 3.4 percent of new voters who were not Democrats. Just to stay even.
And, two days after the election the Republicans are right back at it with their same message. Nothing has changed.
note this is from 2008
Fewer Voters Identify as Republicans
Democrats Now Have the Advantage in "Swing" States
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/24/1149368/-Demographics-Will-Determine-the-Election
With just two weeks left until the 2012 election and with the race extremely tight turnout and demographics will be the determining factors of who will be President in 2012. In the 2004 election the demographics were white voters making up 77 percent of the electorate, black voters 11, Hispanic 8, and all others 4. A total of 122,349,000 people voted in that election and of course George Bush won by 3 percent of the vote.
The next election 2008 the demographics had changed dramatically with only 74 percent of the electorate being white, 13 percent black, 9 percent Hispanic, and 4 percent other nationalities. In that election with over 80 percent of the non white vote and 43 percent of the white vote going for Barack Obama he won easily with 365 electoral votes and almost a ten million advantage in the popular vote. It was a definite fact that demographic support by the President led to his landslide victory. The fact that the demographics had shifted by three percent or a total of over 3 million vote advantage for the President was the huge determining factor. 131,407,000 people participated in the 2012 election and increase of 6.8 percent from 2004. This election was the turning point in American history of how demographics will then and forever play a huge role in how elections and American policy will be determined.
Now comes 2012 and how much demographics have changed since 2008 and who votes will again determine who will be President of the United States. Will the demographics again shift three points? There is no reason to believe they want and for the assumptions to be made in the last part of this article we are gonna believe that they will. The reasons are there are now 24 millions Latinos registered to vote in this nation. This makes up about 12 percent of the electorate eligible to vote. Latino turnout will be huge in determining the winner in 2012 and there is plenty of justification that the Latino population is energized to vote in this election. There is also no reason to believe that the black vote will fall from levels of 2012 so with these two groups energized it is hard to see where there will be any type of lack of enthusiasm which many polls seem to want to suggest today.
So now let us determine how this election might play out and what the actual popular vote totals will be for the candidates. In 2004 the white percentage of the electorate was 77 percent, In 2008 it dropped to 74 percent, so there is no reason especially with the Hispanic voting age population growing by 50 thousand a month that it will not drop again. We are determining in this exercise that it will drop three percent again and be about 71 percent of the total voting population. The black voting population grew from 11 percent to 13 percent from 2004 to 2008 so it seems logical that it could jump two percent again to 15 percent. The Latino vote only grew from 8 to 9 percent in the years 2004 to 2008 so we'll only let it grow one more point to 10 percent which may or may not turn out to be a huge mistake in this hypothesis. There is plenty of evidence that it could grow to 11 or 12 but there is no mistake that the total will be ten percent.
Now, I can't find the link to the article I wanted to quote but what is said was that every four years Republicans are losing .85 percent of their voters and Dems are gaining .85 percent for a total of a 1.7 percent swing.
While thats not a lot consider that from Obama's 2008 win until the 2016 election the Republicans have to win over 1.7 percent of the electorate. Not just gain 1.7 percent but win over 1.7 percent of Democrats. Otherwise they need to gain 3.4 percent of new voters who were not Democrats. Just to stay even.
And, two days after the election the Republicans are right back at it with their same message. Nothing has changed.
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