Andrew,
I agree with much of your post. There were 2,300 overseas absentee ballots in 1996, and 54% of them went to Dole. So, you are right, one would expect that if the ballots come from the same type of voters, that even more than 54% would go for Bush in this election.
However, I've read twice that there are some 6,000 Floridians living in Israel, and that there were efforts made to have them vote absentee. I think a large portion of this Jewish vote would go for Gore/Lieberman. It remains to be seen just how many actually requested absentee ballots, and then how many returned them.
I'd trust a machine more than a hand count too. But, look what happened when they redid the machine count. More votes for both. One explanation is that a small portion of punches didn't get completely pushed out, and weren't read the first time, but did get read the second time. Are there more of these uncounted punches? A sample hand count might find out.
Finally, if there is a problem in New Mexico, that should be adressed too. But perhaps there isn't as much interest in New Mexico, with only five electoral votes at stake.