Reasons why Intel will not dominate ARM (for the foreseeable future)

[2timer]

I've been reading some other threads that have long since derailed and gone into heated arguments over benchmarks. That's fine.

Here are the reasons why I believe Intel will not dominate ARM - even if the TDP of Haswell is competitive:

1. Atom is the redheaded stepchild of Intel.

Intel has purposely neglected Atom because it cannibalizes their entire lineup. If Atom was to be fully supported and developed as some people claim (it will not be), then basically, the majority of the Celeron/Pentium market dries up - Atom eats up Intel's low end.

This is problematic for Intel's profit models. I do not expect Intel to cannibalize it's lineup just to spite ARM.

2. Intel has not, and will not be, competitive in emerging markets, because these markets don't want or need intensive processing power.

As the desktop PC market slowly dies, tablets and smartphones are where future growth will take place. Intel has been developing Haswell to put into tablets. These tablets will certainly be competitive with ARM in battery life. But I wonder: will consumers be willing to pay the extra money for a Haswell device? What is the incentive to pay for more processing power, when the most popular apps on mobile devices are social networking, media playback, and casual games?

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_downloaded_Android_applications#section_1


These are perhaps the two main reasons why I don't believe Intel will dominate over ARM, although I have other auxiliary points as well.

 

[Phynaz]

I'll only make one post in this thread and then I'm going sit it out.

Read the story of how the Celeron came to be. And find out what Intels' largest selling CPU is.

 

[2timer]

I'll only make one post in this thread and then I'm going sit it out.

Read the story of how the Celeron came to be. And find out what Intels' largest selling CPU is.

Cool. I'm not familiar with either of those stories, maybe you can provide a link?

 

[Centauri]

I'll only make one post in this thread and then I'm going sit it out.

[redacted]

Knock it off
-ViRGE

 

[meloz]

1. Atom is the redheaded stepchild of Intel.

Intel has purposely neglected Atom because it cannibalizes their entire lineup. If Atom was to be fully supported and developed as some people claim (it will not be), then basically, the majority of the Celeron/Pentium market dries up - Atom eats up Intel's low end.

This is problematic for Intel's profit models. I do not expect Intel to cannibalize it's lineup just to spite ARM.

This has been true thus far, Intel got scared after the initial success of netbooks, recognized the threat to their profit margins and stunted Atom. Later iphone and ipad happened, and Intel now regret their decision. So they are changing. Or are being forced to change.

So just because Intel did one thing in the past does not mean they cannot change direction and react to market conditions. Their sheer size and reserves means they can afford to react rather than act. It also helps that they actually lead the entire industry in engineering and manufacturing, thus their marketing can take backseat.

But if Intel's only option is between a 15% profit margin and not existing (a bankrupt Intel, killed by greed), I am sure their board and executives will steer the company towards 15% (after much moaning from shareholders and financial analysts). A goose that lays silver eggs -instead of golden- is still better than not having a goose at all.

One thing is true: Intel need constant competition to keep them honest. Otherwise they go into conservative profiteering mode, and do the bare minimum to improve the performance / $ parameter. Last five years are a perfect demonstration of this.

Intel's biggest threat is not from ARM players; it is their own greed and obsession with profit margins.

 

[Maragark]

the desktop PC market slowly dies, tablets and smartphones are where future growth will take place.

The desktop PC market isn't dying, it's simply saturated. Are the TV, cooker, and freezer markets dying? Tablets and smartphones will also reach saturation in the near future.

As to why Intel won't dominate ARM, the answer is simple - price.

 

[Roland00Address]

This has been true thus far, Intel got scared after the initial success of netbooks, recognized the threat to their profit margins and stunted Atom. Later iphone and ipad happened, and Intel now regret their decision. So they are changing. Or are being forced to change.

I really don't understand why intel did that.

It is one thing to not come out with a better atom at the same prices, but they should have came out with a better atom and then charged higher prices for the new atom. Instead they only made the atom cheaper to produce and lowered the tdp throughout the 4 to 5 years the atom has existed.

It is taking 5 years to get the atom I finally wanted (silvermont)

 

[2timer]

So just because Intel did one thing in the past does not mean they cannot change direction and react to market cconditions.

.. if Intel's only option is between a 15% profit margin and not existing (a bankrupt Intel, killed by greed), I am sure their board and executives will steer the company towards 15%.

Maybe, but I see a long and winding road before Intel arrives at that stage.

In the meantime, I still believe that my original conjecture is correct - no major changes to Atom, for the foreseeable future.

 

[Exophase]

Maybe, but I see a long and winding road before Intel arrives at that stage.

In the meantime, I still believe that my original conjecture is correct - no major changes to Atom, for the foreseeable future.

Not counting the total uarch redesign coming at the end of this year, right? Intel sure has mentioned it a lot..

 

[Bill Brasky]

We are all aware that intel is moving atom to the two year tick-tock model, correct?

http://www.anandtech.com/show/4333/intels-silvermont-a-new-atom-architecture


"Silvermont however changes everything. It is the first new redesign of the Atom architecture and it marks the beginning of Atom being on a tick-tock cadence. Say goodbye to 5 year updates, say hello to a new architecture every 2 years."

 

[dma0991]

Why does you think that tablets will totally replace laptops or desktops? The dismal sales of Surface Pro should've given a good indicator that tablets are never meant to replace laptops/desktops where additional performance and storage capacity is required.

 

[beginner99]

If I had to work on a tablet, I think my company would need to hire 5 more persons. Tablets are for computer "Noobs". I don't get them and never will.

Atom and Celerons play in a completely different league performance and watt wise. Yes you can buy $400 celeron laptops but there battery will be empty in like 3 hours or so and be in general crappy. Atom will never go in such laptops, it will go into phones. Considering that a Celeron is more expensive to produce than an Atom and and can be sold in a $400 package tells me Intel could easily be competitive price wise...if it wanted to.

Maybe I'm too enthusiastic but I'm fairly certain silvermont will be to "ARM" what Core 2 was to AMD.

 

[ShintaiDK]

1. Two words, Silvermont and Airmont.

2. So thats why people upgrade their smartphones..over and over and over for the latest CPUs.

 

[Arzachel]

Why does you think that tablets will totally replace laptops or desktops? The dismal sales of Surface Pro should've given a good indicator that tablets are never meant to replace laptops/desktops where additional performance and storage capacity is required.

You're actually proving the his point. People don't want a poor tablet and a poor laptop glued together, they just want a good tablet. Tablets don't need to replace laptops/desktops when people spending cash on phones/tablets instead of upgrading their "good enough" laptops/desktops means the exact same thing as far as the manufacturers are concerned.

2. So thats why people upgrade their smartphones..over and over and over for the latest CPUs.

Hahaha, are you really that deluded? Most smartphone users only know enough to say that their device is a "Galaxy" or an "iPhone" and that's it. ARM is a bodily appendage and a CPU is "that computer thing" at the very best. People buy smartphones because they're fashionable and they want to one-up their friends and colleagues, not because of specs.

 

[itsmydamnation]

1. Two words, Silvermont and Airmont.

2. So thats why people upgrade their smartphones..over and over and over for the latest CPUs.

No they don't, if you think they do you really don't understand people. No one cares outside of us forum WH***'s. Does it look good, does it do what i want(facebook), is it simple, will i look cool with it, is it the latest must have device, are B grade celebrates on the TV praising it etc etc . CPU performance doesn't even enter the mind of the average consumer, to think other wise is nuts.

So the question is how will Intel attract the big manufactures. Intel's choice of a nail or a nail or the ARM choice of the entire workshop. I must have brought this up 10 times here yet the atom preachers never have come up with a good answer. How is the intel based phone going to be something that people want over the arm based phone.

Without that point of differentiation for their customer base why would big manufactures pick ATOM?

As part of my job i deploy MDM solutions for enterprise and government BYOD deployments, want to guess what the most important feature of a phone these days is. When you sit down with regular office workers it very quickly becomes apparent. Most users don't even think about it until you start con-straining it.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Hahaha, are you really that deluded? Most smartphone users only know enough to say that their device is a "Galaxy" or an "iPhone" and that's it. ARM is a bodily appendage and a CPU is "that computer thing" at the very best. People buy smartphones because they're fashionable and they want to one-up their friends and colleagues, not because of specs.

No they don't, if you think they do you really don't understand people. No one cares outside of us forum WH***'s. Does it look good, does it do what i want(facebook), is it simple, will i look cool with it, is it the latest must have device, are B grade celebrates on the TV praising it etc etc . CPU performance doesn't even enter the mind of the average consumer, to think other wise is nuts.

So the question is how will Intel attract the big manufactures. Intel's choice of a nail or a nail or the ARM choice of the entire workshop. I must have brought this up 10 times here yet the atom preachers never have come up with a good answer. How is the intel based phone going to be something that people want over the arm based phone.

Without that point of differentiation for their customer base why would big manufactures pick ATOM?

As part of my job i deploy MDM solutions for enterprise and government BYOD deployments, want to guess what the most important feature of a phone these days is. When you sit down with regular office workers it very quickly becomes apparent. Most users don't even think about it until you start con-straining it.

The biggest complain by average users is that its slow and sluggish. And the average lifespan of a smartphone is between 15 and 18 months.

 

[itsmydamnation]

The biggest complain by average users is that its slow and sluggish. And the average lifespan of a smartphone is between 15 and 18 months.

maybe out of the sample size of yourself and yourself. if it was that simple why are manufactures pushing other area's so aggressively, they should be spending that budget on CPU.

 

[ShintaiDK]

maybe out of the sample size of yourself and yourself. if it was that simple why are manufactures pushing other area's so aggressively, they should be spending that budget on CPU.

Yet the biggest Samsung announcement was the mixed octocore ARM with the upcoming release of the Galaxy S IV on the 14th this month. And an iPhone 5S is on the way as well with an A7 quadcore.

 

[StrangerGuy]

Hahaha, are you really that deluded? Most smartphone users only know enough to say that their device is a "Galaxy" or an "iPhone" and that's it. ARM is a bodily appendage and a CPU is "that computer thing" at the very best. People buy smartphones because they're fashionable and they want to one-up their friends and colleagues, not because of specs.

Disregarding whether consumers even want x86 in their phones and tablets, all the ARM ecosystem needs do to for preventing Intel gaining a foothold is not to put Intel chips in their end products. Mission accomplished.

Oh, and phones are status symbols that people will want to upgrade every year or 2 regardless of the SoC inside. PCs that are hugely overpowered for Facebook never will.

 

[podspi]

Yet the biggest Samsung announcement was the mixed octocore ARM with the upcoming release of the Galaxy S IV on the 14th this month. And an iPhone 5S is on the way as well with an A7 quadcore.

Among people who pay attention to these things... I don't think most people pay attention to the tech in their phones (or computers). They mostly go by brand name and what they've heard.

Had to stop my mother from buying an iPhone 4 last night because it was free with a new contract and the she had heard from a friend the reception was bad on the 4S. She's not stupid, she just doesn't care about cell phones... (Aside, her second choice was an HTC 8X).

I think battery life is the most important thing nowadays. We can always find a use for more processing power, but iOS and WP7/8 have shown us we don't need quad-core CPUs when the software is optimized properly. Camera is important too. People are finally waking up to the idea the camera is important, now that most people no longer bother with point-and-shoots anymore.

 

[TuxDave]

Disregarding whether consumers even want x86 in their phones and tablets, all the ARM ecosystem needs do to for preventing Intel gaining a foothold is not to put Intel chips in their end products. Mission accomplished.

Oh, and phones are status symbols that people will want to upgrade every year or 2 regardless of the SoC inside. PCs that are hugely overpowered for Facebook never will.

That's sort of a prisoners dilemma. If Intel produces a product far better than competition, you're going to have a hard time convincing everyone to "stick with the plan".

 

[dma0991]

You're actually proving the his point. People don't want a poor tablet and a poor laptop glued together, they just want a good tablet. Tablets don't need to replace laptops/desktops when people spending cash on phones/tablets instead of upgrading their "good enough" laptops/desktops means the exact same thing as far as the manufacturers are concerned.

Except that tablet/smartphones are not giving the exact user control like Windows or any full fledged OS would. A good tablet has its own niche and I can't see it totally replacing laptops/desktops as writing long and meaningful text is just slow on a touchscreen keyboard.

Laptops are adapting to the user requirements of a touchscreen and they do come at a very competitive price point. The laptops will provide the performance, flexibility and storage of a versatile OS but conversely, tablets do not have these characteristics. They do have better battery life but hopefully, Intel will change that.

Adoption rate of these laptops are slow only because W8 is underwhelming. Assuming that the next iteration addresses the issues, laptops will regain its lost market.

 

[Madpacket]

Intel needs to adapt or die and this means reducing margins dramatically. They've had free reign over pricing for the better part of their history but this is quickly coming to an end due to the explosive increase in speed of ARM processors.

 

[Arzachel]

The biggest complain by average users is that its slow and sluggish.

Proper hardware acceleration(How many people are still on Gingerbread?) and faster NAND. You'd have a point if people where complaining that their rendering and encoding is taking ages.

And the average lifespan of a smartphone is between 15 and 18 months.

That's how long it usually takes to pay off a carrier subsidized phone, I'm not sure what you meant with that.

 

[ShintaiDK]

That's how long it usually takes to pay off a carrier subsidized phone, I'm not sure what you meant with that.

Its the average lifespan for a smartphone till its discarded.