Realistic price drop expectations?

[MJK4Y]

What kind of price drops do you expect to see in current AMD and Nvidia cards once the Kepler card(s) finally release, and over what time frame do you expect these drops do occur?

Is it safe to expect a drop in the price of the 570/580 fairly soon? Given that AMD just released the 7870/7850, is a drop in price unrealistic? How about the 79xx?

I ask, because I'm finalizing a new build and a video card is about all I have left to select. Right now, I still can't decide between a 7850, a 570, and whatever else might enter my price range (< $320) once the Kepler cards launch. I haven't bought a motherboard yet, but I'm planning on going with something like the AsRock Z68 Extreme 3 Gen 3. I don't suppose there will be any effective SLI options that will fit in my price range, either.

 

[nanaki333]

my wish is nvidia does what amd did to them back with the 4000 series. come in at the same price, or better yet cheaper, than the 7970 with an easy 25% higher performance. that should force amd to rethink their strategy (huge price drops to ~$400 for 7970?) and easily grab the spotlight for nvidia.

 

[Rvenger]

I would like the 7870 to at least hit $299. I ordered one last night then an hour later I went in and cancelled the order. I have a GTX480 and I get about 85% of the performance of the 7870 right now so why should I upgrade?

 

[superjim]

If you have a card from your current build, use it and limp along until the dust settles. It will still be sometime before NV can get out the rest of Kepler to really force the prices down. If the 680 launches at $550 with the performance from the THG charts, don't expect any price drops for the 79xx series. The best we would see is 570/580 price drops but I wouldn't hold my breath.

 

[MJK4Y]

Yeah, in my previous build (4 years or so ago), I had a 8800GTS. I don't know whether or not its in bad shape, seems like everything in my old build broke all the same time (PSU, mobo, and processor).

I just don't want to get caught in a cycle of preparing to pull the trigger on a GPU purchase, only to get swept up in the brewing rumors about the next release. I'd rather have this thing built now. But I suppose there's no point in shelling out an additional $50-$100 unnecessarily.

 

[Imouto]

I bet Nvidia has been cleaning its stock of older cards like AMD did an we won't see price drops to avoid dual configs and force ppl to buy a new gen card.

 

[Silverforce11]

When TSMC can exceed demand.

 

[Stuka87]

I would not expect any price drops for quite some time. From either AMD or nVidia, as with current TSMC issues, I doubt nVidia will be undercutting AMD.

 

[cantholdanymore]

How realistic without NV prices?

 

[superjim]

If you want something now, hop on ebay for a 6950/560ti to hold you over then sell it once a next-gen card comes down to your price level. Waiting to save 50-100 dollars doesn't make sense when you're waiting for 4+ months on a video card with a shelf-life of 2 years (for me at least, I see you're still rocking the 8800).

 

[badb0y]

If the GTX 680 is $499 then AMD has to price cut by atleast 50$ across the board.

 

[kalrith]

Yeah, in my previous build (4 years or so ago), I had a 8800GTS. I don't know whether or not its in bad shape, seems like everything in my old build broke all the same time (PSU, mobo, and processor).

You could build your system and try your 8800GTS. If it doesn't work, then you can use the IGP for general use or older games until the dust settles. If you have to purchase today, then stretching your budget for a 7870 wouldn't be such a bad choice.

Edit: Waiting a month or two might save you $50 or so, so it's up to you if losing a month of gaming is worth $50. I would also look at the specific 7870 cards available now. If you don't see one that fits what you want (a certain overclock, better fan, better warranty, etc.), then you might have to wait just for the right card to be released.

 

[taltamir]

Is it safe to expect a drop in the price of the 570/580 fairly soon? Given that AMD just released the 7870/7850, is a drop in price unrealistic? How about the 79xx?

nVidia cards and older AMD cards already had price drops the momeny the 7970 came out.
I believe that we will only see further significant drops if the kepler proves to be a superior card to the 7970.

 

[RussianSensation]

If you have a card from your current build, use it and limp along until the dust settles. It will still be sometime before NV can get out the rest of Kepler to really force the prices down. If the 680 launches at $550 with the performance from the THG charts, don't expect any price drops for the 79xx series. The best we would see is 570/580 price drops but I wouldn't hold my breath.

If true, then both HD7950 and HD7970 will be totally irrelevant for 95% of consumers.

HD7950 series pricing makes no sense already even without GTX680 around. You can now get a $360 Galaxy GTX580 on Newegg, a card that's just 5% slower than $460+ non-reference HD7950s. Even HD7870 makes HD7950 look overpriced. If GTX680 comes out at $550, then HD7970 at $550 also makes no sense since the fastest single-GPU card tends to command a large price premium. Not to mention GTX680 simply packs more features (CUDA, PhysX, TXAA, Active VSync, EVGA Lifetime + transferable warranty, quieter reference cooler, lower power consumption, better 3D gaming support, native AO in the drivers). Now some of these might not matter to us, but overall, once GTX680 launches, it seems HD7900 series 2 key advantages will be its 3GB of VRAM and its ability to drive 6 displays. For HD7970 to make any sense at $550 for 90% of consumers, it would have to win about 50% of benchmarks. In that Tom's review, it lost all the benchmarks besides Metro.

Either way, looking at HD7950 @ $450, the current HD7900 pricing is out of touch with reality. And if GTX680 launches at $499, then boy HD7950 has no business being anything above $349 considering it's likely to be at least 30% slower.

Also, NV cards tend to perform better in less popular games:

If the GTX 680 is $499 then AMD has to price cut by atleast 50$ across the board.

IMO, more for HD7950. I think HD7950 needs an $80-100 price cut. HD7950 doesn't make any sense at $400 if GTX680 is $500. If you are spending $400, might as well get the fastest. HD7950 card is barely faster than a GTX580 and those go for $360 already. AMD better pray now that GTX680 is not $499 unless those benches at Tom's are all flawed.

 

[Quantos]

If true, then both HD7950 and HD7970 will be totally irrelevant for 95% of consumers.

HD7950 series pricing makes no sense already even without GTX680 around. You can now get a $360 Galaxy GTX580 on Newegg, a card that's just 5% slower than $460+ non-reference HD7950s. Even HD7870 makes HD7950 look overpriced. If GTX680 comes out at $550, then HD7970 at $550 also makes no sense since the fastest single-GPU card tends to command a large price premium. Not to mention GTX680 simply packs more features (CUDA, PhysX, TXAA, Active VSync, EVGA Lifetime + transferable warranty, quieter reference cooler, lower power consumption, better 3D gaming support, native AO in the drivers). Now some of these might not matter to us, but overall, once GTX680 launches, it seems HD7900 series 2 key advantages will be its 3GB of VRAM and its ability to drive 6 displays. For HD7970 to make any sense at $550 for 90% of consumers, it would have to win about 50% of benchmarks. In that Tom's review, it lost all the benchmarks besides Metro.

Either way, looking at HD7950 @ $450, the current HD7900 pricing is out of touch with reality. And if GTX680 launches at $499, then boy HD7950 has no business being anything above $349 considering it's likely to be at least 30% slower.

Also, NV cards tend to perform better in less popular games:

*snip image*



IMO, more for HD7950. I think HD7950 needs an $80-100 price cut. HD7950 doesn't make any sense at $400 if GTX680 is $500. If you are spending $400, might as well get the fastest. HD7950 card is barely faster than a GTX580 and those go for $360 already.

That sound quite correct.

I'm still not convinced the MSRP actually is $499, but if it is, AMD prices have to drop pretty significantly. The 7970 might get away being sold at the same price, but as you said, from what we know so far, it only wins in particular situations (higher resolutions). At 1080p, I don't see many people buying the 7970 over the 680 at the same price.

A 7970 slightly less expensive would then make sense. Of course, if one drops, they all have to.

 

[RussianSensation]

A 7970 slightly less expensive would then make sense. Of course, if one drops, they all have to.

I still think it would need a much deeper price cut. Correct me if I am mistaken but the few HD7970 with a lifetime warranty are the XFX Double Dissipation cards (all sold out on the egg). Those cost $569-599 (and come with poor cable/adapter bundle!). If EVGA has a GTX680 for $499, those cards look completely out of place. They'd literally have to cost $449 at most to make any sense if GTX680 is even 10% faster on average in games. I don't think GTX680 will be $499 though. I think it'll come in at $549.

 

[Quantos]

I still think it would need a much deeper price cut. Correct me if I am mistaken but the few HD7970 with a lifetime warranty are the XFX Double Dissipation cards (all sold out on the egg). Those cost $569-599 (and come with poor cable/adapter bundle!). If EVGA has a GTX680 for $499, those cards look completely out of place. They'd literally have to cost $449 at most to make any sense if GTX680 is even 10% faster on average in games. I don't think GTX680 will be $499 though. I think it'll come in at $549.

Oh, I absolutely agree. I didn't phrase my sentence correctly. I meant: "A 7970 slightly less expensive than the 680 would make sense".

$50 I consider to be slightly less expensive. About the $499 price tag, wasn't Fudzilla the only source for that? The slightly more concrete information we have is the NCIX pre-order of over $550. That's a pre-order and as such possibly meaningless, but that's still like $65-70 over the MSRP Fudzilla alledges, which seems quite steep. :hmm:

 

[tviceman]

If true, then both HD7950 and HD7970 will be totally irrelevant for 95% of consumers.

HD7950 series pricing makes no sense already even without GTX680 around. You can now get a $360 Galaxy GTX580 on Newegg, a card that's just 5% slower than $460+ non-reference HD7950s. Even HD7870 makes HD7950 look overpriced. If GTX680 comes out at $550, then HD7970 at $550 also makes no sense since the fastest single-GPU card tends to command a large price premium. Not to mention GTX680 simply packs more features (CUDA, PhysX, TXAA, Active VSync, EVGA Lifetime + transferable warranty, quieter reference cooler, lower power consumption, better 3D gaming support, native AO in the drivers). Now some of these might not matter to us, but overall, once GTX680 launches, it seems HD7900 series 2 key advantages will be its 3GB of VRAM and its ability to drive 6 displays. For HD7970 to make any sense at $550 for 90% of consumers, it would have to win about 50% of benchmarks. In that Tom's review, it lost all the benchmarks besides Metro.

Either way, looking at HD7950 @ $450, the current HD7900 pricing is out of touch with reality. And if GTX680 launches at $499, then boy HD7950 has no business being anything above $349 considering it's likely to be at least 30% slower.

Also, NV cards tend to perform better in less popular games:

IMO, more for HD7950. I think HD7950 needs an $80-100 price cut. HD7950 doesn't make any sense at $400 if GTX680 is $500. If you are spending $400, might as well get the fastest. HD7950 card is barely faster than a GTX580 and those go for $360 already. AMD better pray now that GTX680 is not $499 unless those benches at Tom's are all flawed.

I agree with just about everything you've said, BUT I really think we are seeing a new AMD in regards to pricing and they are going to continue to push their products at higher price points than what we have seen in the past. I think if gtxx680 launches at $499 (which seems to be plausible at this point) AMD will at worst price match the gtx680, and at best drop it to ~$480, while the hd7950 will get a cut to $350. I don't see the rest of AMD's lineup getting much (if any) price cut. Pitcairn really is an interesting die, being so close in performance to Tahiti AND having a strong possibility of outperforming GK106 (I am basing that on nothing more than speculative reasoning on my part). So I think pitcairn, even if overpriced, won't be affected much at all by Tahiti price drops.

The whole catch 22 this time around is that AMD doesn't have the die size production advantage with comparable performing chips and therefore they have less wiggle room to fight on prices (vs. the past few generations) without cutting deep into their margins. I don't think AMD will swallow their pride.

 

[Quantos]

I agree with just about everything you've said, BUT I really think we are seeing a new AMD in regards to pricing and they are going to continue to push their products at higher price points than what we have seen in the past. I think if gtxx680 launches at $499 (which seems to be plausible at this point) AMD will at worst price match the gtx680, and at best drop it to ~$480, while the hd7950 will get a cut to $350. I don't see the rest of AMD's lineup getting much (if any) price cut. Pitcairn really is an interesting die, being so close in performance to Tahiti AND having a strong possibility of outperforming GK106 (I am basing that on nothing more than speculative reasoning on my part). So I think pitcairn, even if overpriced, won't be affected much at all by Tahiti price drops.

The whole catch 22 this time around is that AMD doesn't have the die size production advantage with comparable performing chips and therefore they have less wiggle room to fight on prices (vs. the past few generations) without cutting deep into their margins. I don't think AMD will swallow their pride.

Hmm. I don't know :/

If it turns out that the GTX 680 is very good and that at equal or very similar (+- $20) the 7970 is an awful value, I don't see AMD just leaving it there and not selling any card. They enjoyed a few months being on top and the prices were made accordingly. I'm sure they sold plenty of 7970. Assuming they're at least slightly reasonable, I don't see them keeping a purposefully badly priced card.

 

[frostedflakes]

If GTX 680 comes out at $499, $449 for the 7970 and $399 for the 7950 seems appropriate to me. Just my $0.02, though. And this is just MSRP, how much retailers will actually charge for them is anyone's guess considering TSMC seems to be having issues with 28nm and supply is probably pretty limited currently.

 

[MJK4Y]

If GTX 680 comes out at $499, $449 for the 7970 and $399 for the 7950 seems appropriate to me. Just my $0.02, though. And this is just MSRP, how much retailers will actually charge for them is anyone's guess considering TSMC seems to be having issues with 28nm and supply is probably pretty limited currently.

Do you think the 78xx's would have to follow suit then, as well? Or could AMD keep the 7870 at ~$360? (I'm not too familiar with the %performance difference bwteen the 7870 and the 79xx).

 

[frostedflakes]

7870 isn't too far behind the 7950 in performance (about 7% I think), so it could probably stay at $349 if the 7950's MSRP drops to $399. But again who knows, this is just my speculation based on rumored prices of the 680.

 

[StormSide]

680 live at Newegg right now card are 499-509 with a few higher...

 

[RussianSensation]

AMD will at worst price match the gtx680, and at best drop it to ~$480, while the hd7950 will get a cut to $350.

It's gonna need to drop to $450 if it's 10-15% slower on average. Still, I am not sure if anyone would pay $450 for a card that's 2nd best. Might as well pay $500 and get the top card with EVGA lifetime warranty.

http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=33175563&postcount=58

HD7970 MSI Lightning for $599? Ya right.

 

[blastingcap]

Street prices are very difficult to predict because price is set where demand meets supply. But as far as MSRP, I expect:

GTX680 - 500
HD7970 - 500 for the 3GB variant, 420 for the 1.5GB variant
HD7950 - 400 for the 3GB variant, 350 for the 1.5GB variant
HD7870 - 300
HD7850 - 230
HD7770 and below - irrelevant, just get a 69x0 or 68x0 and overclock and get better bang for the buck

What I'm hoping for is that AMD tries to undercut NVDA back, in which case we may see steeper price drops than that.