Rassmussen vs Nate Silver

Discussion in 'Politics and News' started by HomerJS, Nov 6, 2012.

  1. buckshot24

    buckshot24 Diamond Member

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    Ok if one candidate wins by 10 points in the national popular vote we can't draw any conclusions as to their likelihood of winning the Electoral College? How about 5 points?

    For your statement to be true the answers to these two questions would have to be no. They aren't no.

    The lower the national vote margin is the less correlation to EC vote winner there is, of course, but to say it is meaningless is fucking stupid.
     
  2. Charles Kozierok

    Charles Kozierok Elite Member

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    Have you ever even watched an election come in before? Any race that lop-sided will be called based on individual state results hours before even an approximation of the total PV numbers is known.
     
  3. buckshot24

    buckshot24 Diamond Member

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    Yeah, if the national polls were saying 10 point win (nationally) one way or the other you know that person will win the EC without looking at a single state poll. ie. the national polls are not meaningless.
     
  4. Charles Kozierok

    Charles Kozierok Elite Member

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    ... the state polls would be indicating a win so strongly that the national poll would be unnecessary.

    And we were talking about the returns, not the polls.
     
  5. buckshot24

    buckshot24 Diamond Member

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    Oh shit, sorry. Carry on.
     
  6. HomerJS

    HomerJS Diamond Member

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    Fox News now admitting all the polls showing advantage to Obama were right. Waiting for final numbers but not looking good for Rassmussen
     
  7. Charles Kozierok

    Charles Kozierok Elite Member

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    I hope this election FINALLY puts Rasmussen out to pasture where he belongs.
     
  8. OrByte

    OrByte Diamond Member

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    Nate Silver owns.
     
  9. Phokus

    Phokus Lifer

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    Nate Silver is going to be a god. SHIT FOR BRAINS republicans now need to shut the * up about him.
     
  10. SP33Demon

    SP33Demon Lifer

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    Nate's model > *, that is all. Fivethirtyeight for the MF win.
     
  11. Abraxas

    Abraxas Golden Member

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    So, what are the odds Nate Silver will extend to Rasmussen the same offer Colbert did to Trump?
     
  12. MomentsofSanity

    MomentsofSanity Diamond Member

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    Just waiting for the election results to be unskewed...
     
    #37 MomentsofSanity, Nov 7, 2012
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2012
  13. Ryan

    Ryan Lifer

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    Exactly - he called the entire race, and will usher in a new era of polling analysis for the next set of elections. Every network will be scrambling to hire more statisticians to compile voting trends......
     
  14. buckshot24

    buckshot24 Diamond Member

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    Nate silver is a fucking bean counter.
     
  15. Phokus

    Phokus Lifer

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    Hahahahaha bow down before him bitch.
     
  16. blankslate

    blankslate Diamond Member

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    Lol poor Joe Scarborough. guess he is going to need some Johnny Walker Blue label to get over it.
     
  17. blankslate

    blankslate Diamond Member

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    A bean counter who actually knows how to count beans is better than a partisan fvck.
     
  18. buckshot24

    buckshot24 Diamond Member

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    A seventh grader could make a predictive system. It isn't magic, I'll give him credit for believing the polls because they ended up being right.
     
  19. First

    First Diamond Member

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    Yet he's a bean counter who owned the shit out of you.

    lol.
     
  20. blankslate

    blankslate Diamond Member

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    Translation: waaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhh!!!!
     
  21. Abraxas

    Abraxas Golden Member

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    Take a fucking cue from Romney and be gracious in defeat. Being a snippy little bitch about it is precisely the wrong way to act when you are shown incorrect. In particular because when you say shit like a seventh grader could have done what Silver did, the question becomes how did you, presumably an adult, * it up so badly?

    Accept that Nate Silver is skilled at parsing polls and getting to the heart of what they say and move on.
     
  22. First

    First Diamond Member

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    Yes, give him credit for understanding polls and statistics. Then look within yourself and accept your inner-layman.
     
  23. trmiv

    trmiv Lifer

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    votamatic.org looks like they will hit it right on the nose. They had 332 to 206.
     
  24. Ryan

    Ryan Lifer

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    Looking at Nate Silver's "State-by-State probabilities", he called every state 100% correct. Hell - even down to Florida being a very slight lead for Obama.
     
  25. trmiv

    trmiv Lifer

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    Didn't Nate Silver have a final prediction on the site at one point? I could swear I saw one earlier today but I can't find it. I thought he did have 332 to 206 also.