Anyway, we are talking about a residents' rent payment vs an owner's mortgage payment being equal. A landlord's overhead expenses are irrelevant.
Kev, Respect +1 for coming around when someone re-articulated the argument.
Now let's be clear. Given the same property it makes sense to purchase a home. Unless land-lords are
1) losing money in the short term
2) have a significantly better deal on costs
3) we are talking apples-to-oranges comparisons
4) unaware of the underlying nature of the housing market
Why?
1) The land lord, in order to make money, must charge more than his all-in costs. So if his Rent must be treater than mortgage + other costs. Therefore whatever profit the land lord is making in the short term is money the renter could have in his pocket (in an apples-to-apples comparison).
2) An offset to this is if the land lord can offset costs better than the home owner. For example, if the land owner can get a better deal on a loan for the land than the home owner can. Or if the overhead costs of owning 100 homes divided by those 100 homes is < the overhead costs of owning 1 home. Perhaps he can get a better deal on a bulk-rate contract with electricians, plumbers, painters and all the other stuff that home owners need to deal with
3) Of course, comparing an apartment to a house throws all of this out of the window. But in theory if you were willing to live in an apartment you should be just as willing to live in an apartment you are buying, but which you pay less for because you are not paying profits to the land owner
It seems to me that if people were as respectful and personally invested in a rental property as they are homes they own then the economic equilibrium would favor being a renter because so many people would enter the land-lord business that it would stop being more profitable than any other investment; this is because typically we can expect real return on an investment to follow the fallowing formula: 6% - inflation + required return on risk. (Greenspan, 2008)
Between kinds of investment it is only that third bit that really changes. But renters add risk to the land-lord's investment, kinds of risk that increase the premium. Just think for a moment "why don't I just buy rental properties instead of stocks with my IRA"? The answer is that there is significantly higher risk being a land lord. People don't pay, but file bankruptcy and stay in the home for months; People destroy walls, ignore leaks, and otherwise treat the rental like... a rental. They are also a pain in the ass. All of this leaves profit to be made by people willing to bear the risk.
Therefore risk premium - efficiencies of scale = fiscal benefit of home ownership.
So when does it make sense to rent? Look back at the formula: 6% - inflation + required return on risk. If inflation is low and the value of the property is rising then, to an investor, that required return does not have to come entirely from rental up-charge. If required return is 6% inflation is zero and the land is appreciating at 10% year over year, then the minimum rental up-charge is 2%.
4)The underlying fundamentals of the housing market are invisible to people investing it in. Further, unless there's a systemic shift in how people are spending their money, any sector that grows in value at a page that exceeds the overall economy is leading into abubble that is going to burst. But when the person who owned 10 houses leverages into owning 100 look around all he sees is gravy: because everyone else that did this is also adding into the year over year appreciation. Eventually though, this bubble will burst and prices will dip, and then return to a linear trend that follows the general increase in the economy.
Now, if people are changing how much of their wealth they put into a particular sector then you can have a 'bubble' that's really a measure of the change. For example, as people get older they will sell off their family-sized homes and seek smaller places to live. They will systematically re-orient where they put their money as they move from the consumer-service oriented 18-48 demographic to the more miserly retirement-health care oriented spending demographic of 58-78.
So as people invest in a last minute attempt to have enough money to retire then things you invest in should serge in price: gold goes up in price, homes go up in price, stocks go up in price, bonds should offer crappy returns.
Further as people spend money on not-dicing the price of health care should skyrocket; as there will not be enough doctors, nurses, and the like to go around. Similarly we should see a surge in investment in 'midlife' healthcare products like heart rate monitors, gym memberships, and heart/depression/blood pressure etc. medicines.
Eventually though we'll have an over-investment in healthcare because people will not be 'end loaded' and the amount a doctor, nurse, or geriatric care costs will fall dramatically.
Well also have a BIG drop in the real price of gold, stocks, homes, and a dramatic increase in the returns on bonds as the "saving for retirement" demographic tries to become the "retired" demographic.
So to think that the housing market will rebound is ridiculous; we need to look at the supply/demand of homes in terms of demographic shifts.