Discussion Radeon 6500XT and 6400

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Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
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Honestly if ETH does go PoS on schedule there's going to be enough upheaval that plenty of cheap cards will hit the market as some miners look to get out. Even if there is some next PoW currency to absorb that, it probably won't be anywhere near enough and I don't know if anything else is big enough to absorb the kind of spike you'd see from miners moving off of ETH.

Most miners have likely been able to ROI their cards a while ago so letting them go cheap isn't going to be a hard pill to swallow when the alternative is potentially having a lot of leftover cards that will be even harder to move when the next generation of new cards from AMD/NV get launched.
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
53,267
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Most miners have likely been able to ROI their cards a while ago so letting them go cheap isn't going to be a hard pill to swallow when the alternative is potentially having a lot of leftover cards that will be even harder to move when the next generation of new cards from AMD/NV get launched.
Yes and no. Some miners on YT (VoskCoin) are getting out of GPU mining, and switching to primarily ASIC mining and staking. Some miners (RedPandaMining and SonOfATech) are investing into more GPUs, also BrandonCoin.

Some are doing some spec-mining, Raptorium (CPU mining), RVN (GPU), etc., RVNL. Maybe I should do some of that, in case they moon five years from now.

There are some that don't believe (based on past performance no doubt) that ETH is actually going to move to PoS. They said that around 2019 too, if I'm not mistaken. The difference now, though, is that they have a PoS chain WORKING, AFAIK, in parallel to the PoW chain, so that's why it's called "the Merge".
 

GodisanAtheist

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2006
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Huh? His YT channel pre-dates "Let's Go Brandon" nonsense. He's a residential miner from NC with a YT channel, named Brandon.
- Hmm, a google search for "Brandon Coin" seems to conflate it with the Lets Go Brandon (LGB) Coin (which is in fact real). Upon further inquiry they do appear to be different coins entirely, and unfortunately have some overlap in the name.
 
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Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
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I think the fact that imaging that it's so utterly ridiculous that a coin would be named after the whole Brandon thing only to find out that there's actually some other coin that specifically is just makes it all the more funny.

Literally a meme coin.
 

Shivansps

Diamond Member
Sep 11, 2013
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Honestly if ETH does go PoS on schedule there's going to be enough upheaval that plenty of cheap cards will hit the market as some miners look to get out. Even if there is some next PoW currency to absorb that, it probably won't be anywhere near enough and I don't know if anything else is big enough to absorb the kind of spike you'd see from miners moving off of ETH.

Most miners have likely been able to ROI their cards a while ago so letting them go cheap isn't going to be a hard pill to swallow when the alternative is potentially having a lot of leftover cards that will be even harder to move when the next generation of new cards from AMD/NV get launched.
Not gonna happen, exactly the same has been said about 4GB gpus when ETH break trought the 4GB VRAM limit a year ago. Did you see any cheap 4GB gpu? It is because they all switched over to other coins, RVN mostly.

Look, when you have a machine that you turn it on and it constantly generates money the only people that "gets out" when one crypto crashes is the people that dont understand very well how to make money out of mining.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
6,677
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Not gonna happen, exactly the same has been said about 4GB gpus when ETH break trought the 4GB VRAM limit a year ago. Did you see any cheap 4GB gpu? It is because they all switched over to other coins, RVN mostly.

Look, when you have a machine that you turn it on and it constantly generates money the only people that "gets out" when one crypto crashes is the people that dont understand very well how to make money out of mining.
You can't just see inflated prices at the high end. When that happens, actual consumers who just spend in a particular price range get forced down the stack and the who problem is exacerbated by shortages. The actual gaming market is getting pushed down the stack and increasing the demand for these low-mid and low-end GPUs.

I just pulled up a website that calculates hash rate and expected profits and RVN is roughly half of ETH. It'd take over a year to get a return on initial investment even with inexpensive electricity on some of these low-end cards and that's probably a bit long for many miners. If everyone gets pushed to RVN suddenly you've got more miners competing which drives down profits even further.

ETH has a market cap almost 500 times larger than RVN. It's impossible for any other coin to absorb all of that without seeing some drastic market fluctuations. The uncertainty is going to lead to people wanting to get out, especially if they've already gotten a return on that initial investment.

Long term you may be correct and we'll see GPUs get absorbed by miners again as new PoW coins emerge or as existing ones grow to fill in the space left by ETH moving to PoS, but it's going to take some time for it to reach that point again.
 

Insert_Nickname

Diamond Member
May 6, 2012
4,582
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I just pulled up a website that calculates hash rate and expected profits and RVN is roughly half of ETH. It'd take over a year to get a return on initial investment even with inexpensive electricity on some of these low-end cards and that's probably a bit long for many miners. If everyone gets pushed to RVN suddenly you've got more miners competing which drives down profits even further.
Nice if you have it. That's done for here at least. I'd settle for some of that electricity back. Yesterday the going rate was US$1.06 per kWh.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
6,677
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I'm not sure where you're at but that's absurdly high. Is there some kind of shortage or issue that's causing that kind or prices?
 

Insert_Nickname

Diamond Member
May 6, 2012
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Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
6,677
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I know that they're up there with Germany in terms of electricity cost, but that's just crazy. What're people running to drive up the usage that much? It can't just be extra Christmas lights. At that price just hang some GPUs in the tree and let the LEDs twinkle while they mine. Might at least break even. Hell, if it's just extra cold there right now just use the waste heat from GPUs instead and offset the cost.
 

Shivansps

Diamond Member
Sep 11, 2013
3,608
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You can't just see inflated prices at the high end. When that happens, actual consumers who just spend in a particular price range get forced down the stack and the who problem is exacerbated by shortages. The actual gaming market is getting pushed down the stack and increasing the demand for these low-mid and low-end GPUs.

I just pulled up a website that calculates hash rate and expected profits and RVN is roughly half of ETH. It'd take over a year to get a return on initial investment even with inexpensive electricity on some of these low-end cards and that's probably a bit long for many miners. If everyone gets pushed to RVN suddenly you've got more miners competing which drives down profits even further.

ETH has a market cap almost 500 times larger than RVN. It's impossible for any other coin to absorb all of that without seeing some drastic market fluctuations. The uncertainty is going to lead to people wanting to get out, especially if they've already gotten a return on that initial investment.

Long term you may be correct and we'll see GPUs get absorbed by miners again as new PoW coins emerge or as existing ones grow to fill in the space left by ETH moving to PoS, but it's going to take some time for it to reach that point again.
You dont understand, if ETH indeed goes down, people is going to switch to mine diferent alt coins, you are betting on the next big thing, and it is best to mine as much as possible early on. Thats why 4GB gpus never went to the used market, they are all mining alt coins. Even if you are mining at a loss.

People that want to get out are the poeple that, a few years later, will sorry for that decision. A little history lesson is in order here... BTC went to ASICs in 2012-2013, people went to mine alt coins... most of them worth nothing today, but who mined Litecoin and Dogecoin ended up winning big time in the long run.

What will happen is that will be far less demand for NEW gpus, just dont expect to find cheap old gpus. Also the gpus that will show up first will be the worthless ones, like the RX 570 4GB, GTX 1660 non super... that might as well be IGP-level by 2023. Hell, due to memory limits all 4GB gpus have a chance to be IGP-level by next year.

(thats also why i want to see RX 6400 perf, thats petty much RMB IGP, but with a 16MB IC, but RMB has 8GB VRAM, and the RX 6400 is limited to 4GB)
 

Insert_Nickname

Diamond Member
May 6, 2012
4,582
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What're people running to drive up the usage that much? It can't just be extra Christmas lights.
There are several factors of course, mostly because our government is a bunch of twits.

There are only about 6 hours of daylight here this time of year, so there isn't much solar power. Couple with little wind due to a high pressure, lack of water in Norwegian and Swedish reservoirs, humongous natural gas prices due to political issues plus COVID, huge demand because of a cold spree, and Christmas cooking and you have pretty much the perfect storm. We're then having to import a lot of power from Germany, which is mostly generated using natural gas, which isn't inexpensive.

Then add some miners in Norway and Sweden, and you got real issues if they setup there. Which is why the Swedish government is lobbying the EU intensely for outlawing mining.
 
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naukkis

Senior member
Jun 5, 2002
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I know that they're up there with Germany in terms of electricity cost, but that's just crazy. What're people running to drive up the usage that much? It can't just be extra Christmas lights.
Europe is doing "green transition". Which basically means that everything is transiting from burning to electricity, and same time electric manufacturing is also geared down, Germany and Sweden are shutting down their nuclear plants which lefts only option to produce electric with fossil fuels, where increasing emissions run carbon dioxide trade value to sky high. Electricity pricing is sky high now - and winter isn't come fully yet. Europe might suffer blackouts when winter really comes. Most of northern-Europe small buildings are heated with electricity.

There's chaos in Europe right now - and reason for that is those "green" parties voted to governments in too many countries.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
6,677
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You dont understand, if ETH indeed goes down, people is going to switch to mine diferent alt coins, you are betting on the next big thing, and it is best to mine as much as possible early on. Thats why 4GB gpus never went to the used market, they are all mining alt coins. Even if you are mining at a loss.
ETH is too large for other coins to absorb the mining capacity. If those other coins see an influx of miners it means that each has to work even harder due to increased competition assuming they're not using some system that doesn't have a fixed number of coins that can be minted in a given time.

That means that profitability is even worse and no one is going to mine at a loss when they can flip a card for above MSRP.

A little history lesson is in order here... BTC went to ASICs in 2012-2013, people went to mine alt coins...
Yeah and the GPU market actually went back to normal during that period and others like it. Just because there will be a few PoW coins that eventually emerge and gain enough traction to make mining on GPUs a reasonable investment doesn't mean that it will happen overnight. Far better to unload cards while the price is still good so that you have the capital to reinvest when mining becomes more profitable again.
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
53,267
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Yeah and the GPU market actually went back to normal during that period and others like it. Just because there will be a few PoW coins that eventually emerge and gain enough traction to make mining on GPUs a reasonable investment doesn't mean that it will happen overnight. Far better to unload cards while the price is still good so that you have the capital to reinvest when mining becomes more profitable again.
There's something to be said for divesting your fleet of GPUs that are more than 1-2 generations old, just for performance and efficiency sake.
 

Insert_Nickname

Diamond Member
May 6, 2012
4,582
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There's chaos in Europe right now - and reason for that is those "green" parties voted to governments in too many countries.
Yup. I can really see how burning fossil fuels is climate friendly. They can't. Reality just escape them. A lot of their "green" policies are anything but in the real world.

But just try and speak out against them, and you'll get some BS about temporary "green transition" troubles and almost get lynched too.

I think we've been OT enough, and this isn't P&N, so back on topic;

Would be really nice if Navi24 is indeed 6nm. I'll definitely see if I can get a 6400 for my HTPC, for the AV1 HW decoder alone.
 

eek2121

Golden Member
Aug 2, 2005
1,800
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AMD Radeon RX 6500XT and RX 6400 to be the first 6nm graphics cards
Link

That would explain why N24 wasn't released yet.
AMD has the perfect opportunity here to really go to town with making a ton of these things. Unfortunately, Rembrandt will probably receive the lion's share of 6nm allocation because OEMS. However, the dies should be quite small on 6nm. We will see how it plays out.
 

Insert_Nickname

Diamond Member
May 6, 2012
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TESKATLIPOKA

Senior member
May 1, 2020
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16CU N24 is supposedly ~141 mm^2 built using 6nm process, Videocardz.

If we compare It to 24CU N14 with a die size of 158 mm^2, then It doesn't look very good -> 1/3 less CU, 1/2 memory controller, +16MB IC and you save only 10% by using a better process.
To have the same TFLOPs as a fully unlocked N14, you would need to have 50% higher clocks, in other words ~2.7-2.8GHz. Against RX 5500XT you only need ~38% higher clocks, in other words ~2.45-2.55GHz.
Another problem is only 4GB Vram and at 1440p only 64bit GDDR6 will also be a bottleneck, we can also see this with RX 6600XT at 4K.
The only real positive about N24 should be the power consumption, hopefully It will be <=75W.
 
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