Quite possibly the worst bluff in the history of poker

[lizardboy]

This happened a few minute ago on PartyPoker. It's people like this idiot who help pay a significant portion of my rent every month with poker winnings. He risked $37.25 to win a 75-cent pot. Either I don't have a K, and I fold (unless I'm an idiot), or I have the K and he's dead in the water.


$50 NL Hold'em - Tuesday, May 03, 2005
(6 max) (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 2
Seat 5: L-B ( $63.73 )
Seat 6: atcba ( $37.75 )
atcba posts small blind [$0.25].
L-B posts big blind [$0.5].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to L-B [ Tc Kc ]
atcba calls [$0.25].
L-B checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ks, Kh, Kd ]
atcba is all-In [$37.25]
L-B calls [$37.25].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9h ]
** Dealing River ** [ Qh ]
atcba shows [ Qc, As ] a full house, Kings full of queens.
L-B shows [ Tc, Kc ] four of a kind, kings.
L-B wins $74.5 from the main pot with four of a kind, kings.

 

[audi]

hold on while i add atcba to my friend's list!

 

[Sheepathon]

AQ isn't the worst bluff...

 

[lizardboy]

Originally posted by: Sheepathon
AQ isn't the worst bluff...

If you don't understand why that's a horrible bluff you're welcome to play with me anytime.

 

[audi]

Originally posted by: Sheepathon
AQ isn't the worst bluff...

it was an awful bluff, you know he doesn't have the K because he would have tried to milk the pot more, not make a 50x pot size bet. if i were lizard boy i might have called with a PP > 7 in this situation

 

[lizardboy]

Originally posted by: audi

Originally posted by: Sheepathon
AQ isn't the worst bluff...

it was an awful bluff, you know he doesn't have the K because he would have tried to milk the pot more, not make a 50x pot size bet. if i were lizard boy i might have called with a PP > 7 in this situation

I knew he didn't have the K b/c three came out on the flop and I was holding the 4th.

 

[audi]

Originally posted by: lizardboy

Originally posted by: audi

Originally posted by: Sheepathon
AQ isn't the worst bluff...

it was an awful bluff, you know he doesn't have the K because he would have tried to milk the pot more, not make a 50x pot size bet. if i were lizard boy i might have called with a PP > 7 in this situation

I knew he didn't have the K b/c three came out on the flop and I was holding the 4th.

I understand that, I was throwing out a hypothetical situation in which you had a full house Kings full of 7s or greater and he made the same raise to you.

 

[vshah]

i heart party poker

 

[StageLeft]

Not quite possibly...that was definitely the worst bluff in the history of the game. No doubt, son!

 

[bret]

strip poker is where its at

 

[Ismisus]

probably mistyped the bet. Happens all the time. Don't be so harsh.

 

[Ismisus]

probably mistyped the bet. Happens all the time. Don't be so harsh.

 

[Toasthead]

umm yeah that is pretty awful.

 

[amoeba]

That bluff isn't that bad. Headsup in to the flop, he can't expect you to have the case K. If you had 22-55, you might have folded. Even if you had called with a pocket pair, he has 7 outs to outdraw you. Its not that bad of a bluff although betting less would have sold it more convincingly.

The worst move i've seen is somebody calling an All in with 22 on a board of TTTT.

 

[amoeba]

In fact just to use the OP's own logic to prove that this wasn't as bad a bluff as you said it to be,

"He risked $37.25 to win a 75-cent pot. Either I don't have a K, and I fold (unless I'm an idiot), or I have the K and he's dead in the water. "

So .75 is about 1/50th of 37.25. if you are so tight that you only call his push when you have the K, then from a pure EV standpoint, his push is correct as you have the K less than 1/50th of the time. But really he was taking down $1 as he already invested his blind completion so really he needs you to have the K less than 1/37th of the time.

 

[audi]

Originally posted by: amoeba
In fact just to use the OP's own logic to prove that this wasn't as bad a bluff as you said it to be,

"He risked $37.25 to win a 75-cent pot. Either I don't have a K, and I fold (unless I'm an idiot), or I have the K and he's dead in the water. "

So .75 is about 1/50th of 37.25. if you are so tight that you only call his push when you have the K, then from a pure EV standpoint, his push is correct as you have the K less than 1/50th of the time. But really he was taking down $1 as he already invested his blind completion so really he needs you to have the K less than 1/37th of the time.

I think your math is flawed. You know 5 cards, of which 3 are kings. This leaves 47 remaining cards with 1 king left. He has two cards, therefore to find the probability that he has a king you do. 1-((1-(1/47))(1-(1/46)) which yields a little less than 5%.

 

[DrumminBoy]

thats not really a bluff...the chance of you having a king was slim, and he had the best possible kicker... I admit it was a bad bet, but im guessing he thought he had the best hand

 

[95SS]

Originally posted by: audi

Originally posted by: amoeba
In fact just to use the OP's own logic to prove that this wasn't as bad a bluff as you said it to be,

"He risked $37.25 to win a 75-cent pot. Either I don't have a K, and I fold (unless I'm an idiot), or I have the K and he's dead in the water. "

So .75 is about 1/50th of 37.25. if you are so tight that you only call his push when you have the K, then from a pure EV standpoint, his push is correct as you have the K less than 1/50th of the time. But really he was taking down $1 as he already invested his blind completion so really he needs you to have the K less than 1/37th of the time.

I think your math is flawed. You know 5 cards, of which 3 are kings. This leaves 47 remaining cards with 1 king left. He has two cards, therefore to find the probability that he has a king you do. 1-((1-(1/47))(1-(1/46)) which yields a little less than 5%.

If you push without the K, there's a 4.3% chance of him having the case K

Out of 1000 hands (for whole numbers)

43 times he has the K : 43*-38.25=-1644.75

957 times he doesn't have the K : 957*1=957

Following the odds, you'd end up $687.75 down after 1000 hands, or $.688 every time this happened. I would not make this bet, the pot is just too small. However, if the blinds were bigger, it swings into your favor.

.50/1.00 blinds

43 times he has the K : 43*-38.25=-1644.75

957 times he doesn't have the K : 957*2=1914

Now you're ahead, and can make this bet.

 

[yobarman]

Whenever I see a flop like that, I run for my life if I don't have anything good to go with it.

 

[amoeba]

Originally posted by: 95SS

Originally posted by: audi

Originally posted by: amoeba
In fact just to use the OP's own logic to prove that this wasn't as bad a bluff as you said it to be,

"He risked $37.25 to win a 75-cent pot. Either I don't have a K, and I fold (unless I'm an idiot), or I have the K and he's dead in the water. "

So .75 is about 1/50th of 37.25. if you are so tight that you only call his push when you have the K, then from a pure EV standpoint, his push is correct as you have the K less than 1/50th of the time. But really he was taking down $1 as he already invested his blind completion so really he needs you to have the K less than 1/37th of the time.

I think your math is flawed. You know 5 cards, of which 3 are kings. This leaves 47 remaining cards with 1 king left. He has two cards, therefore to find the probability that he has a king you do. 1-((1-(1/47))(1-(1/46)) which yields a little less than 5%.

If you push without the K, there's a 4.3% chance of him having the case K

Out of 1000 hands (for whole numbers)

43 times he has the K : 43*-38.25=-1644.75

957 times he doesn't have the K : 957*1=957

Following the odds, you'd end up $687.75 down after 1000 hands, or $.688 every time this happened. I would not make this bet, the pot is just too small. However, if the blinds were bigger, it swings into your favor.

.50/1.00 blinds

43 times he has the K : 43*-38.25=-1644.75

957 times he doesn't have the K : 957*2=1914

Now you're ahead, and can make this bet.

My bad, you are right, its still negative EV. I still don't think the situation qualifies for worst bluff ever.

 

[meltdown75]

That's the craziest flop I've ever heard of!!

 

[MrChad]

LMAO. I would barely consider myself an intermediate-level poker player, but that's a pretty bad bluff.

 

[davew0670]

its easy to call someones bluff when you're holding the other king. he took and chance and it cost him.