Question- is AMD outmaneuvering Intel?

chrisjames61

Senior member
Dec 31, 2013
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#1
Seems to me that besides coming out with a better stack of processors top to bottom that AMD under the leadership of Dr. Su is also playing their cards better? I would be curious to think what others have to say.
 

NTMBK

Diamond Member
Nov 14, 2011
8,321
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#2
It's not like AMD is pulling off some crazy 4 dimensional chess move. They're pretty much following Intel's playbook, it's just that Intel has spectacularly screwed up their execution.
 

chrisjames61

Senior member
Dec 31, 2013
319
83
116
#3
It's not like AMD is pulling off some crazy 4 dimensional chess move. They're pretty much following Intel's playbook, it's just that Intel has spectacularly screwed up their execution.

Disagree, that is giving AMD no credit for their execution.
 
Jul 9, 2005
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#4
AMD's target and direction under Dr. Su is the enterprise and semi custom design's not the consumer PC market. All of the PC parts are recycled enterprise and semi custom designs Ryzen is the table scraps from Epyc server chip development and Radeon graphics are the table scraps from game console and data center gpu development. And what people have started to figure out has world class IP to build the best enterprise class hardware. AMD has historically had better enterprise class I/O bus interconnect technology and device security than Intel since the original AMD Athlon. They are just now starting to leverage and build upon that IP in the most beneficial ways.
 

scannall

Golden Member
Jan 1, 2012
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#5
I don't know about out maneuvering. AMD was in the place of "Go aggressive, and gamble big. Or go out of business.". Their gamble worked. Intel was in a place of "We got this, time to pay the shareholders.".

Both those positions make sense, and should be no surprise to anyone. AMD needs to keep being aggressive. Intel needs to turn off cruise control.
 
Aug 18, 2014
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#6
Funny the way hardware works these days. One company comes out with a better chip, then in a year or 2 the other out performs them. I have not built an amd system in many years. Amd does have my attention, but if what I have read is true amd may be to expensive to mess with.
 

extra

Golden Member
Dec 18, 1999
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#7
Not really. It's more that they have been executing properly and had a good strategy (chiplets + zen). Then a perfect storm came and Intel has had massive mismanagement with their 10nm. Thirdly, TSMC has *delivered* like crazy.

Those put together have been a massive AMD win.

It'll be hilarious if the thing to have in 2021 ends up being a killer AMD cpu + an amazing Intel GPU. Who would have thought?
 

OTG

Member
Aug 12, 2016
98
185
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#8
. Amd does have my attention, but if what I have read is true amd may be to expensive to mess with.
AMD sells CPUs from like $35-$1700, pretty much always winning a price/performance comparison with the equivalent Intel. The new stuff is pricey because it's new.
 

scannall

Golden Member
Jan 1, 2012
1,402
253
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#9
Funny the way hardware works these days. One company comes out with a better chip, then in a year or 2 the other out performs them. I have not built an amd system in many years. Amd does have my attention, but if what I have read is true amd may be to expensive to mess with.
Speculation is interesting, but nothing to hang your hat on. It will be released soon enough with actual prices. Make your decision then.
 
Jul 1, 2001
21,051
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#10
Not really. AMD would probably be out of business by now if Intel didn't totally botch their last two process shrinks, and give them time to catch up.
 

HurleyBird

Golden Member
Apr 22, 2003
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#11
The situation right now has AMD one up on Intel, but that's happened often enough in the past without much in the way of lasting consequences. The real answer to the question will arrive with Zen 3. If they get that part out before (or even around 2021) and it's even close to being as significant as Zen 2, then at that point Intel better have their pedal to the metal.
 

Ajay

Diamond Member
Jan 8, 2001
5,245
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#12
It was a *perfect storm*. AMD and TSMC executed near perfectly. Intel botched 10nm beyond belief. It appears they anticipated Zen with architecture updates, but those updates were tied to 10nm which deep sixed all their plans.
 

Markfw

CPU Moderator, VC&G Moderator, Elite Member
Super Moderator
May 16, 2002
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#13
The situation right now has AMD one up on Intel, but that's happened often enough in the past without much in the way of lasting consequences. The real answer to the question will arrive with Zen 3. If they get that part out before (or even around 2021) and it's even close to being as significant as Zen 2, then at that point Intel better have their pedal to the metal.
Zen 3 ? No, Zen 2 is kicking hiney and taking names, both in desktop and Server (Rome) On July 7th, the chips will be public. Zen 3 will only be an upgrade to an already awesome CPU. Of course this is all based on what we saw a few days ago. When real reviews comes out is when we can really say "its over for a year or two"
 

cytg111

Diamond Member
Mar 17, 2008
9,238
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#14
Seems to me that besides coming out with a better stack of processors top to bottom that AMD under the leadership of Dr. Su is also playing their cards better? I would be curious to think what others have to say.
I think, at this point, it primarily comes down to the node, Intel and AMD can trade punches for the 2-5% upper hand on the uarch side of things but its the process that is going to make it or break it. Glofo used to break AMDs legs .. for now it seems like Intel has managed to break a leg all on its own. Following process tech through the years one thing is quite clear, a new node is a gamble(which is why tick-tock made good sense).
 

HurleyBird

Golden Member
Apr 22, 2003
1,836
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#15
When real reviews comes out is when we can really say "its over for a year or two"
You misunderstand me. I fully expect that it's a one sided battle, with the possible exception of mobile, for at least a year. But AMD has been in similar positions before. The real test is if they can follow up.
 

Topweasel

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2000
4,896
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#16
It depends on what you mean by out maneuvering them means. Ryzen and the Zen architecture isn't any super great that Intel can't ever match it's pretty good a bit overly server focused, seems to have room to grow as an arch. It's not like AMD has much of a hand in fab tech either. If TSMC told AMD no 7nm till 2020, then we would be getting a refresh right now.

Where AMD has one upped Intel is one born out of their Limitations. Zen 2, EPYC, TR1-3 is AMD keeping themselves to a bare minimum in dies. They found a solution and developed the technology to allow a single die to scale to most of their markets and be in the prime spot to take over the datacenter if they can convince people to make the switch. For a company generally forced to undersell and scrounge for those sales in a situation where sales are great they have a fluid inventory. On top of that because of how scalable it is upping its competitive core count isn't a silicon issue, it's a packaging issue. Meaning as Intel tries to play catchup they can alter their package and fit a few cores on without requiring the foresight of a new die that would take years to produce. So in that sense they are now in a drivers seat to apply pressure Intel hasn't seen in over a decade. It doesn't mean Intel isn't a gen or two from correcting ship. But it should prevent Intel to pull away with ease once they do.
 

AnandThenMan

Diamond Member
Nov 11, 2004
3,797
15
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#17
If we take the mile high view then I'd say yes AMD has out foxed Intel. Intel did everything in their power to try and put AMD out of business and nearly succeeded but AMD found a way to hang around and build up enough resources to engineer better processors. When you stop to really think about it Intel only has the best products whey their competition is barely above water, if they have healthy competition then Intel finds itself behind.
 

Hans Gruber

Senior member
Dec 23, 2006
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#18
You have to wait for Zen 2 to be released. I think the server side is where Intel will be hurting the most. Not on the consumer side.
 
Oct 10, 1999
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#19
Currently? Yes
Permanently? Maybe, but they need to take much more Marketshare before that point is reached.
 

beginner99

Diamond Member
Jun 2, 2009
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#20
It'll be hilarious if the thing to have in 2021 ends up being a killer AMD cpu + an amazing Intel GPU. Who would have thought?
That would truly be hilarious turn of events.
 

Atari2600

Senior member
Nov 22, 2016
808
285
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#22
Seems to me that besides coming out with a better stack of processors top to bottom that AMD under the leadership of Dr. Su is also playing their cards better? I would be curious to think what others have to say.
It is the natural consequence of having technically competent people lead a deeply technical organisation.

Then putting further technical experts into technical lead roles and avoiding cluttering them up with internal bureaucracy*.

I'm sure there is still much waste and churn at AMD, but its likely orders of magnitude less than at Intel right now.


Intel are really suffering from their 10nm problems, but then, AMD suffered for 90nm and 65nm before going fabless... and GF were nothing to write home about vis-a-vis the competition either.

Also, AMD have re-architected their CPUs to be more tolerant of questionable yields with the small blocks approach, whereas Intel are still sticking to the large monolithic die. So its not problems that the Intel design team can absolve themselves of either.



*a case in point will be observing just how much Jim Keller can get done within Intel as opposed to being given a relatively free hand at AMD.
 

PPB

Golden Member
Jul 5, 2013
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#23
It's not like AMD is pulling off some crazy 4 dimensional chess move. They're pretty much following Intel's playbook, it's just that Intel has spectacularly screwed up their execution.
Intel's playbook didn't include tick+tock in the same year tho.

Only thing AMD is not being fast enough is on mobile. Zen 2 mobile APUs need to be the start of the CES 2020 showcase because if it's exactly 12 months after Zen 2 desktop, a lot of the momentum will be lost to Intel's new mobile lineup.
 

Ajay

Diamond Member
Jan 8, 2001
5,245
245
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#24
You misunderstand me. I fully expect that it's a one sided battle, with the possible exception of mobile, for at least a year. But AMD has been in similar positions before. The real test is if they can follow up.
Intel is still way ahead in mobile. AMD is concentrating on desktop and server, so I don’t see that changing any time soon.
 

Triloby

Senior member
Mar 18, 2016
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#25
Taking advantage of Intel's bad situation is the main point of AMD playing their cards right. Even then, Intel's woes won't last forever. Intel still has a market cap of almost $200 billion dollars, and they can spend a hell of a lot more on R&D than AMD could. Also, Intel is still way ahead of AMD on mobile devices, especially with 10nm Ice Lake on the way.

That said, I'd imagine that Intel is going to stagnate for a bit in both desktop and server markets. Outside of Ice Lake right now, Intel doesn't have anything else to get excited about.
 

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