News Qualcomm fishes in Intel's troubled waters: Examines acquiring different pieces of Intel

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DZero

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My understanding is Boeing got "convinced" to buy McDonnell, the latter had deep relations with the US Gov as an experienced state contractor. What started like a take-over by Boeing resulted over the years in a take-over by McDonnell, as McDonnell execs quickly rose up the ladder in Boeing. I'm sure you can find plenty of articles about these events on the web.
Something similar what Elop did with Nokia in favor of Microsoft?
 
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Doug S

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Probably qualcomm trying to put pressure on Intel shareholders who are looking for a quick fix solution

I doubt that Intel executives will fall for this

If they offer a 50% premium to current share price they'd at least reach Intel's trading range the last few years. That might get just enough shareholders to go along - if so Intel's execs won't have a say in the matter.

The fly (or rather C130) in the ointment is gov't approval. That would take a long time, time where Intel is effectively paralyzed as they can't make the kind of big decisions they need to because they are effectively handcuffed by the pending deal. That might be Qualcomm's real goal here.
 

Doug S

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No, something of the opposite. It would be like if Microsoft acquired Nokia and somehow Microsoft ended up with all Nokia leadership in a few years.

You mean like when Boeing bought McDonnell Douglas and the McD guys all ended up charge, and are much of the reason why Boeing is where it is today?
 

FlameTail

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marees

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Reality check​

At the end of its third quarter [PDF] of its fiscal 2024, the three months to June 23, Qualcomm had $7.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents at its disposal and just over $23 billion in total assets. That means Qualcomm, best known for its cellular modems and Snapdragon mobile processors, is almost certainly looking at a stock-for-stock transaction. As of writing, Qualcomm's market cap is $188 billion, just more than double that of Intel's at $93 billion.


The WSJ suggested this possible takeover might also include selling off some of Intel's assets to others to make the acquisition more manageable. It probably would have to for Qualcomm to stomach the deal, financially and strategically speaking. And even if Intel's board agreed whatever offer may emerge, getting regulatory approval – persuading the US, UK, EU, and others that gobbling up more semiconductor market share will be OK for competition – may not be its only hurdle.

In fact, Chipzilla may not be worth much to Qualcomm unless it can renegotiate the x86/x86-64 cross-licensing patent agreement between Intel and AMD, which dates back to 2009. That agreement is terminated if a change in control happens at either Intel or AMD.
 
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NTMBK

Lifer
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Reality check​

At the end of its third quarter [PDF] of its fiscal 2024, the three months to June 23, Qualcomm had $7.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents at its disposal and just over $23 billion in total assets. That means Qualcomm, best known for its cellular modems and Snapdragon mobile processors, is almost certainly looking at a stock-for-stock transaction. As of writing, Qualcomm's market cap is $188 billion, just more than double that of Intel's at $93 billion.


The WSJ suggested this possible takeover might also include selling off some of Intel's assets to others to make the acquisition more manageable. It probably would have to for Qualcomm to stomach the deal, financially and strategically speaking. And even if Intel's board agreed whatever offer may emerge, getting regulatory approval – persuading the US, UK, EU, and others that gobbling up more semiconductor market share will be OK for competition – may not be its only hurdle.

In fact, Chipzilla may not be worth much to Qualcomm unless it can renegotiate the x86/x86-64 cross-licensing patent agreement between Intel and AMD, which dates back to 2009. That agreement is terminated if a change in control happens at either Intel or AMD.
AMD will renegotiate. If they don't, and Intel goes completely under, then that's the end of x86. Companies don't want to rely on a single vendor and would rapidly migrate away from x86 to ARM. AMD need Intel to prop up the whole ecosystem, like it or not.
 
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DZero

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AMD will renegotiate. If they don't, and Intel goes completely under, then that's the end of x86. Companies don't want to rely on a single vendor and would rapidly migrate away from x86 to ARM. AMD need Intel to prop up the whole ecosystem, like it or not.
The issue is Microsoft, basically 80% of the SW relies on x86 and that would damage the current SW market hard.
 
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DAPUNISHER

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AMD will renegotiate. If they don't, and Intel goes completely under, then that's the end of x86. Companies don't want to rely on a single vendor and would rapidly migrate away from x86 to ARM. AMD need Intel to prop up the whole ecosystem, like it or not.
AMD was at less than 8% market share in 2015, many companies DID rely on a single vendor. Dell still only buys a token amount of AMD products. I wonder if they are cozying up with AMD as we speak? Or are they going to ride or die with INTC?

The x86 market could shrink significantly and AMD still sell more CPUs than ever before. If I was the decision makers for AMD, there is no way I'd renegotiate unless it was on our terms. And those terms would be highly favorable to our company. Otherwise, get rekt, we'll go it alone and take our chances.
 

DZero

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x86 has a big problem: most the ecosystem is x86 dependant. Apple would take it a BIG advantage on it with their processors.
 

poke01

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AMD was at less than 8% market share in 2015, many companies DID rely on a single vendor
It’s hard to ditch x86 on desktop, it took Apple 15 years. It will take PC even longer, now that we have news of Valve working on Proton for ARM. I’d say another 5 years for ARM to take off and maybe even more for productivity.

Or PC will ride x86 forever. That’s likely too.
 

DZero

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It’s hard to ditch x86 on desktop, it took Apple 15 years. It will take PC even longer, now that we have news of Valve working on Proton for ARM. I’d say another 5 years for ARM to take off and maybe even more for productivity.

Or PC will ride x86 forever. That’s likely too.
Hardly if they ride forever, an error and PC will crash harder than the 83 crash.
 

WelshBloke

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Closely related subject. How much of the x86 patents are still valid?
I assume that the whole x86 licence thing is sort of a rolling system that incorporates new patients into it otherwise it would be pretty worthless by now?
 

NTMBK

Lifer
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Closely related subject. How much of the x86 patents are still valid?
I assume that the whole x86 licence thing is sort of a rolling system that incorporates new patients into it otherwise it would be pretty worthless by now?
We're only 11 years out from Haswell, so any AVX2 patents probably still have a few years left on them. Duration is normally 20 years in the US.
 
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WelshBloke

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We're only 11 years out from Haswell, so any AVX2 patents probably still have a few years left on them. Duration is normally 20 years in the US.
How do they decide what future patents will be part of it?
Like AVX2 wasn't part of the original licence agreement (due to it not existing).
 

FlameTail

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We're only 11 years out from Haswell, so any AVX2 patents probably still have a few years left on them. Duration is normally 20 years in the US.
Supposedly the AVX2 patent expired, which is why Apple recently added AVX2 emulation capability to their Game Porting Toolkit recently. Haven't fact checked that claim myself.
 

NTMBK

Lifer
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How do they decide what future patents will be part of it?
Like AVX2 wasn't part of the original licence agreement (due to it not existing).
I expect lots of highly paid lawyers arguing with each other 😄

Supposedly the AVX2 patent expired, which is why Apple recently added AVX2 emulation capability to their Game Porting Toolkit recently. Haven't fact checked that claim myself.
Depends on how far ahead of Haswell they actually got filed, I guess! Should all be on the USPTO website if you want to go digging.
 

FlameTail

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The x86 market could shrink significantly and AMD still sell more CPUs than ever before. If I was the decision makers for AMD, there is no way I'd renegotiate unless it was on our terms. And those terms would be highly favorable to our company. Otherwise, get rekt, we'll go it alone and take our chances.
They can't make the terms too favourable, or else they'll raise the ire of regulators, and be facing antitrust lawsuits.
 

WelshBloke

Lifer
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I expect lots of highly paid lawyers arguing with each other 😄
Ha! This is the only thing we can rely on! 😆

I'd have thought that this situation would be what the whole FRAND thing should cover!
Its better for everyone. If you can't prosper with a first mover advantage, a deep understanding of the patent and underlying issues, and an income stream from all your competitors then you are probably holding the industry back tbh.
 

marees

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Patrick Little, a former Qualcomm executive and current CEO of SiFive, a startup specializing in rival microprocessor designs, told the New York Times that Qualcomm’s interest is mainly in Intel’s chip design and software capabilities. “Those are things Qualcomm would have to mature on their own over time,” Little explained, adding that acquiring Intel could accelerate Qualcomm’s entry into markets where it has less expertise.

 
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