quad-core Phenom to see further delays ?
- Thread starter NoobyDoo
- Start date
AMD set themselves up for a serious challenge when they expected to resolve the only-just-recently-uncovered TLB bug with the first silicon spin to correct it.
Basically when you uncover a design bug like this there can be a number of layout marginality issues that could produce the same outcome. They get ranked by probability of being the likely culprit and slotted with resources to correct it in time for meeting the schedule of respins.
In a highly publicly visible situation like this with AMD and it's Phenom chip, marketing has to make promises to the public that engineering may simply not be able to make or keep.
In this case marketing basically told the world the B3's would fix the problem (which in truth the B3's were simply the absolute best-case scenario for having the likely fix), and quoted a timeline that assumed again the best-case scenario for first B3 silicon coming out of the fab as fully functional and sellable.
This is not marketing's fault, this is what they are paid to do. But it does result in an overly optimistic (in fact it is the most optismistic timeline physically possible) which in turn sets everyone's expectations unrealistically too high.
B3 could come out of the fab with new bugs, or the existing TLB bug may in fact still exist if the root-cause of the bug was not correctly identified early enough in the B3 tape-out cycle to have been incorporated into the tapeout.
The problem here as I see it is that a lot of the non-technical world expects there to be just one cause for any given problem. Having a cough (symptom) does not always mean you have a specific disease (cold, flu, etc).
To fix the TLB bug you can bet there are a host of potential suspects, rank-sorted by likelihood and cross-ranked relative to timeliness of correcting and including in a new tape-out.
Should AMD not nail-it on the first attempt will come to no suprise to anyone in the industry, but they MUST paint the best case picture for the markets. It is simply unacceptable for them to do otherwise.
Basically when you uncover a design bug like this there can be a number of layout marginality issues that could produce the same outcome. They get ranked by probability of being the likely culprit and slotted with resources to correct it in time for meeting the schedule of respins.
In a highly publicly visible situation like this with AMD and it's Phenom chip, marketing has to make promises to the public that engineering may simply not be able to make or keep.
In this case marketing basically told the world the B3's would fix the problem (which in truth the B3's were simply the absolute best-case scenario for having the likely fix), and quoted a timeline that assumed again the best-case scenario for first B3 silicon coming out of the fab as fully functional and sellable.
This is not marketing's fault, this is what they are paid to do. But it does result in an overly optimistic (in fact it is the most optismistic timeline physically possible) which in turn sets everyone's expectations unrealistically too high.
B3 could come out of the fab with new bugs, or the existing TLB bug may in fact still exist if the root-cause of the bug was not correctly identified early enough in the B3 tape-out cycle to have been incorporated into the tapeout.
The problem here as I see it is that a lot of the non-technical world expects there to be just one cause for any given problem. Having a cough (symptom) does not always mean you have a specific disease (cold, flu, etc).
To fix the TLB bug you can bet there are a host of potential suspects, rank-sorted by likelihood and cross-ranked relative to timeliness of correcting and including in a new tape-out.
Should AMD not nail-it on the first attempt will come to no suprise to anyone in the industry, but they MUST paint the best case picture for the markets. It is simply unacceptable for them to do otherwise.
Originally posted by: keysplayr2003
This time next year, will we still have AMD? Not to be a downer, but exactly how much bad news can any one company take? AMD is not a Juggernaut like Intel or MS or IBM etc. This company is giving me ulcers and I don't even own stock.
Good question and point...the odds of AMD's sales becoming dominated by video-cards and only secondly a CPU manfacturer seem higher and higher.
Oddly enough I see Nvidia as being the real helper here for AMD as at least they give AMD hope of selling cross-fire boards for Intel-based mobos as Intel continues to dominate the high-performance desktop markets.
With IBM's fabclub growing in member numbers...it is rapidly becoming an "Intel vs. ROW" marketspace. (ROW = rest of world)
Kuzi
Senior member
- Sep 16, 2007
- 572
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That was what I was expecting really. AMD release the 9500/9600 B3 say around March time-frame, and the higher clocked 9700/9900 a couple months after.
It should not be that bad as long as the B3 CPUs are TLB bug free and OC higher than the B2s. I personally would be happy to get a Phenom that can OC stable to 3.2-3.4GHz.
But if AMD can't fix their Phenom problems within the next few months, then 2008 is going to be a really bad year for them, gl AMD.
Happy New Years everyone
It should not be that bad as long as the B3 CPUs are TLB bug free and OC higher than the B2s. I personally would be happy to get a Phenom that can OC stable to 3.2-3.4GHz.
But if AMD can't fix their Phenom problems within the next few months, then 2008 is going to be a really bad year for them, gl AMD.
Happy New Years everyone
What I think (while being lazy and not doing any research) is that it's primarily chip supply and market conditions driving decisions by both AMD and Intel.
They've both invested heavily in capacity. They've both been cutting chip prices. And while demand may remain steady this year inventories are probably up.
Enthusiasts may be drooling for new highend chips but Average Joe home computer user can email and surf for porn just fine with his $500 computer. Same with the business desktop
Be interesting to see what anyone can find on the server side . . .
They've both invested heavily in capacity. They've both been cutting chip prices. And while demand may remain steady this year inventories are probably up.
Enthusiasts may be drooling for new highend chips but Average Joe home computer user can email and surf for porn just fine with his $500 computer. Same with the business desktop
Be interesting to see what anyone can find on the server side . . .
NNNNNNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!
Anyone know where to find the current roadmaps? They used to a have a 3 year technological outlook on their website but it seems to have been removed
Originally posted by: Kuzi
That was what I was expecting really. AMD release the 9500/9600 B3 say around March time-frame, and the higher clocked 9700/9900 a couple months after.
It should not be that bad as long as the B3 CPUs are TLB bug free and OC higher than the B2s. I personally would be happy to get a Phenom that can OC stable to 3.2-3.4GHz.
But if AMD can't fix their Phenom problems within the next few months, then 2008 is going to be a really bad year for them, gl AMD.
Happy New Years everyone
Even if they fix their problems, its not going to be an easy year. Phenom out the door is so much slower than the Intel Quads.
I wonder if this is a prompt for Intel to even further delay the release of the Penryn Quads.
Sylvanas
Diamond Member
- Jan 20, 2004
- 3,752
- 0
- 0
Well I'd rather them get it right than push out a half baked product. On another note however, the constant publicity of the TLB bug has IMO been blown way out of proportion, the only instance in which theres a *possibility* for it to appear is Virtualisation software full load 24/7- Judging by the experiences of the people with Phenoms (plenty on XS) nobody has experienced this bug in everyday situations including full loading with games. If anything I hope B3 can push the OC ceiling that little bit higher.
Consider the market segment you are speaking for and about. You personally are unlikely to be operating your computer to do things that utilize virtualization, just as the XS folks are unlikely to be as well.
The bread-and-butter of AMD's high margin and high ASP parts is not AT or XS forum members. Sure the TLB issue is blown out of proportion if AMD made the Phenom and Barcelona for us. Unfortunately for them we do not represent a multi-billion per year revenue market segment...so they did not make K10 for us.
And for the people they did make the K10 for, all those servers and corporate types who wanted "drop-in upgrade from dual to quad within same power envelope" it turns out the TLB is a big issue to them.
The proof is in the fact that AMD has in fact responded in the way that it has to the issue. AMD is not telling the world to wait until B3 ships because they want the folks at XS to not get hit with a TLB bug.
I don't think I am surprised by amd's bad news train. it just keeps coming. won't be suprised they say phenom is delayed til 2009.
Phynaz
Lifer
- Mar 13, 2006
- 10,140
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Originally posted by: KingstonU
NNNNNNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!
Anyone know where to find the current roadmaps? They used to a have a 3 year technological outlook on their website but it seems to have been removed
Roadmap is on slide 21.
If I get the OC urge I'll jump ship just for the experience alone. In the mean time I'll wait and buy AMD stock when I feel its under valued, and use thier cheap cpu for simple folks system upgrades. In my eyes it's times like these that people in the know can make a little dough. Apple was/is a great ride, and I don't think AMD is going under, so I'll play the game.
edit: wow only 1 post?? guess thats what I get for not logging in for a few years
edit: wow only 1 post?? guess thats what I get for not logging in for a few years
Originally posted by: 66tbird
If I get the OC urge I'll jump ship just for the experience alone. In the mean time I'll wait and buy AMD stock when I feel its under valued, and use thier cheap cpu for simple folks system upgrades. In my eyes it's times like these that people in the know can make a little dough. Apple was/is a great ride, and I don't think AMD is going under, so I'll play the game.
edit: wow only 1 post?? guess thats what I get for not logging in for a few years
The only time a person should be so confident as to consider themselves as being "in the know" is when they have come upon information which has not been released into the public domain...which means they would be committing insider trading were they to attempt to profit by trading the markets with this knowledge in consideration.
You can certainly be an ignorant trader and be trading "out of the know". But technically you should not be able to find yourself trading "in the know" if you are a US citizen trading an a publicly held company on an exchange regulated by the SEC.
Originally posted by: Idontcare
Originally posted by: 66tbird
If I get the OC urge I'll jump ship just for the experience alone. In the mean time I'll wait and buy AMD stock when I feel its under valued, and use thier cheap cpu for simple folks system upgrades. In my eyes it's times like these that people in the know can make a little dough. Apple was/is a great ride, and I don't think AMD is going under, so I'll play the game.
edit: wow only 1 post?? guess thats what I get for not logging in for a few years
The only time a person should be so confident as to consider themselves as being "in the know" is when they have come upon information which has not been released into the public domain...which means they would be committing insider trading were they to attempt to profit by trading the markets with this knowledge in consideration.
You can certainly be an ignorant trader and be trading "out of the know". But technically you should not be able to find yourself trading "in the know" if you are a US citizen trading an a publicly held company on an exchange regulated by the SEC.
Well, at the very least AMD will be bought up, which will cause the price of the stock to go up. I seriously doubt they'll just go under completely. If they recover, their stock price will go back up. If you look at AMD's record, they're at a serious low right now. It *should* go back up.
Not disagreeing, but consider how well that worked out for DEC...and the K10 is certainly not the Alpha 21264 of its day.
Originally posted by: Idontcare
Originally posted by: 66tbird
If I get the OC urge I'll jump ship just for the experience alone. In the mean time I'll wait and buy AMD stock when I feel its under valued, and use thier cheap cpu for simple folks system upgrades. In my eyes it's times like these that people in the know can make a little dough. Apple was/is a great ride, and I don't think AMD is going under, so I'll play the game.
edit: wow only 1 post?? guess thats what I get for not logging in for a few years
The only time a person should be so confident as to consider themselves as being "in the know" is when they have come upon information which has not been released into the public domain...which means they would be committing insider trading were they to attempt to profit by trading the markets with this knowledge in consideration.
You can certainly be an ignorant trader and be trading "out of the know". But technically you should not be able to find yourself trading "in the know" if you are a US citizen trading an a publicly held company on an exchange regulated by the SEC.
Well, I guess I'll restate that and say 'closely follow current trends and have a good recollection of past similar events'.
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