Q4 2012 PC Graphics marketshare

[raghu78]

http://www.techpowerup.com/180389/J...orts-Graphics-Market-Down-8.2-in-Q4-2012.html

Few salient points

1. Year to year for the quarter the graphics market decreased. Shipments were down 3 million units from the same quarter last year.

One of the key trends is the PC notebook / netbook market getting eroded by tablets at the low end.

2. The overall PC market actually grew 2.8% quarter-to-quarter while the graphics market declined 8.2% reflecting a decline in double-attach. That may be attributed to Intel's improved embedded graphics, finally making "good enough" a true statement.

This trend will accelerate with Haswell and Broadwell and Nvidia which currently holds 65% of notebook discrete mobile gpu marketshare is going to be affected more than AMD.

3. On a year-to-year basis we found that total graphics shipments during Q4'12 dropped 11.5% as compared to PCs which declined by 5.6% overall. GPUs are traditionally a leading indicator of the market, since a GPU goes into every system before it is shipped and most of the PC vendors are guiding down for Q1'13.

Looks like Q1 2013 could be very difficult for both Nvidia and AMD.

Even though reports show a CAGR of 3.2% for graphics market from 2012 to 2016 its difficult to see that happen.The discrete GPU market will find it difficult to maintain its current size. With stacked DRAM and logic on a interposer the SOCs from Inel, AMD , Qualcomm, Nvidia will get a lot more bandwidth and GPU performance will increase rapidly every generation and discrete graphics will become more and more niche.

 

[blastingcap]

And yet AMD sneered that NV was "turning into a smartphone company" in recent comments. Ironically, that seems like the right direction to go, and NV is the one making money, not AMD.

Roy Taylor (AMD): "We should make it clear that NVIDIA is a good company, and we respect their attempted transition into being a smartphone company."

 

[SirPauly]

while the graphics market declined 8.2% reflecting a decline in double-attach.

This is a key indicator!

 

[RussianSensation]

3. On a year-to-year basis we found that total graphics shipments during Q4'12 dropped 11.5% as compared to PCs which declined by 5.6% overall. GPUs are traditionally a leading indicator of the market, since a GPU goes into every system before it is shipped and most of the PC vendors are guiding down for Q1'13.

Looks like Q1 2013 could be very difficult for both Nvidia and AMD.

You missed this:

"Total discrete GPUs (desktop and notebook) 15.9% from the last quarter and were down 9.7% from last year for the same quarter due to the same problems plaguing the overall PC industry. "

Not looking good.

The declines in discrete GPU shipments is more than the declines in PC sales. It's no wonder that AMD and NV decided to raise prices on us with HD7000/600 card. They are aware that the strong base of PC gamers will continue upgrading and pay more and the sub-$100 GPU market is more or less dead. Makes sense since if you can't grow your revenue significantly, you can grow your profits to make up for slow revenue growth (or even declining revenue) by increasing Average Selling Prices of discrete GPUs. Admittedly NV has done a much better job at this since they are still effectively selling a mid-range chip for $450 now while AMD's prices have dropped to $350-430 levels.

If this continues with 20nm Maxwell / AMD's Volcanic Islands, then we'll pretty much be entering a new era of GPU pricing where 300-380mm2 chips will be selling for $500-550. Fun times ahead. :hmm:

As far as the Overall GPU market share, this chart is a foregone conclusion.

"Ninety nine percent of Intel's non-server processors have graphics"

AMD's and NV's market shares will continue shrinking based on how the market share is calculated since Intel IGPs are counted whether consumers use them or not. If you buy an Intel CPU, that counts an extra GPU even if you already have a discrete GPU. Since most systems don't have discrete GPUs, Intel's overall market share should continue to increase and the discrete GPU makers to decrease.

Tail end of a 7 year old PS360 generation and most of 2013 riddled with console ported games isn't helping discrete GPU upgrades on the PC either. That's why we need more games like Crysis 3.

 

[dangerman1337]

Tail end of a 7 year old PS360 generation and most of 2013 riddled with console ported games isn't helping discrete GPU upgrades on the PC either. That's why we need more games like Crysis 3.

I wouldn't say as like Crysis 3 but definitely take the advantage of PC would be nice and good enough for me, seeing Crysis 3's benchmarks, the soon monitor resolution increases and the possibility that 20nm GPUs may not make until 2H 2014 (or you have to pay 1000 USD for Titan and here int the UK is around £830-900) at least could do the opposite effect and make PC gaming look too daunting too many.

A good taking advantage of PC would be larger scale game-play and possible physics rather than just higher Fidelity and wouldn't cost as much to developers (I think?) IMO.

 

[boxleitnerb]

When will discrete market share numbers be out?

 

[MrK6]

Thanks for taking the time to summarize and post this raghu78! :thumbsup: Times are definitely changing.

And yet AMD sneered that NV was "turning into a smartphone company" in recent comments. Yet that seems like the right direction to go, and NV is the one making money, not AMD.

Everyone knew they screwed up years ago when they sold Snapdragon. Whether they could have made it in to the success that Qualcomm has is a whole other argument (I'll say no), but shrinking rather than diversifying is just such a stupid business move. This is just another example among the multitudes of poor business decisions that AMD has made as a company.

The other thing to note is that BOTH companies are going to have an uphill battle which may turn in to a fight for survival later. Immediately this means less progress and competition, which is bad for us consumers. However, this may advance to bring completely ignored if profit margins shrink enough. We'll see. I'm not saying it's Intel that's going to reap the benefits either, as Qualcomm is already claiming it's stake.

 

[Stuka87]

And yet AMD sneered that NV was "turning into a smartphone company" in recent comments. Yet that seems like the right direction to go, and NV is the one making money, not AMD.

AMD's graphics devision makes money, its the CPU side that brings things down, which is why they only made 22 million in profit last quarter.

But having a mobile graphics solution is a good thing for nVidia. Although I still wonder why they are not #1 in performance. They have a lot of smart people, but they are consistently quite a ways behind PowerVR's top offerings (ie: iPad 4).

 

[f1sherman]

When will discrete market share numbers be out?

20 days or so

but it's pretty clear from this what happened with discrete
seasonally low quarter and ramping up of haswel

speculations about imminent next gen release didn't help also.

 

[boxleitnerb]

Good to know, thx.

 

[Stuka87]

In regards to discrete chips, AMD did state in their call that they sold more 7900 series chips in January than any previous month. So it could be people were holding back hoping for a new release, and when it did not come, they went ahead and purchased.

 

[tviceman]

Not to argue with the overall decline of the market, but I also believe there are plenty of people with gtx500 / hd6800 or better cards who didn't upgrade this time around. New consoles, which will bring more demanding and sloppier PC ports, might spur a few people to upgrade. Times will probably remain tough until 20nm, though.

 

[sontin]

nVidia's Y-Y was 16% up, AMD's Y-Y was 15% down.

So the market will sell less low-end GPUs but with improvements in Perf/Watt like nVidia did with Kepler they can easily offset the smaller low end market.

 

[SirPauly]

The key indicator is attach rates to me. When will integrated be good enough to start the potential death spiral of discrete?

 

[Genx87]

The key indicator is attach rates to me. When will integrated be good enough to start the potential death spiral of discrete?

It has been good enough for years. Intel has had a 50+% GPU marketshare for quite some time.

 

[jamudin1]

Bad prices

 

[jamudin1]

value card of the year- 7870 myst