Putin’s Bluff: U.S. Spies Say Russia Won't Invade Ukraine

[JEDIYoda]

Don`t let anybody fool you.....Russian Commandos are already in the Ukraine and they have secured whatever is in Russia`s best interest.
When they say heavily armed militants they actually mean Russian Commandos......
My Brother in law who use to live in the Ukraine says that this will not end well for the people of the Ukraine. Russia still considers the Ukraine to be a puppet state of Russia! They never really did give the Ukrainian people freedom of choice.

My Brother in law also speculates that we can and will do nothing if Russia decides to send troops in......for that matter Europe cannot do anything! Nobody wants to go to war over the Ukraine.

Now say this happened in Poland -- I think there would be a different scenario....

Is that enough commentary??


http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl.../articles+(The+Daily+Beast+-+Latest+Articles)

American intelligence has concluded that Russia won't openly invade Ukraine, despite a massive military exercise on the border and the armed takeover of local airports.

U.S. intelligence estimates conclude that Russia has no intention of invading Ukraine. This, despite the launch of a massive, new Russian military exercise near Ukraine’s border and moves from armed men to seize two key airports in the country's Crimea region.

The latest developments led Ukraine's interior minister Arsen Avakov Friday to accuse Russia of invading the Russian majority province of Crimea after armed militias took control of the civilian airport in Simferopol, the region's capital and the military airport in Sevastopol, where Russia's Black Sea fleet is based. Russian authorities meanwhile have denied any responsibility for the seizure of the two airports in the region.

On Wednesday Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, ordered 150,000 troops to take part in a military exercise his defense minister said was a routine test of combat readiness. A senior U.S. intelligence official told The Daily Beast that the timing of the military exercise, coming only days after the Ukrainian parliament voted to oust the pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, was suspicious. But nonetheless, U.S. intelligence agencies have collected no information suggesting the training exercises were preparation for an invasion.

“The mere fact of the timing when you consider what is going on in Ukraine and you see the sudden nature of the exercise would cause concern,” this official said. “From an intelligence perspective we don’t have any reason to think it’s more than military exercises."

There is more....

 

[Genx87]

Sounds like according to CNN that military transports have been landing troops at airports in the Crimea.

 

[Mai72]

It's already taking place.

WW3!

 

[JEDIYoda]

Sounds like according to CNN that military transports have been landing troops at airports in the Crimea.

If I may I also read and cannot find the article where men in military style uniforms that had no markings took over key Ukrainian areas...such as thre parliament building.

I also read in the same article that those who had control and were occupying places like the parliament building were astounded and frightened when they were over run by men in crisp new uniforms with no markings and were heavily armed. These men were not your everyday freedom fighter with torn dirty clothes. These men wore new clothing that was unmarked. They also asked these people who you support and they said Russia.

That's why I honestly believe those people were Russian Commandos.....

 

[JEDIYoda]

It's already taking place.

WW3!

nope -- You cannot fight a country like Russia in its own back yard.

Nothing will happen except for a lot of sabre rattling....

 

[gevorg]

Direct invasion would be very hard since there are millions of Russians living in Ukraine (for whom Russia is already preparing passports). And there are millions of ethnic Ukrainians who speak Russian as their primary language that could take either side. Any mass-scaled war would likely to turn most people of Ukraine against Russia and maybe even EU. I personally know two families who live in Kiev, and they're mad not on pro-EU or pro-Russia ambitions of their government, but on fact that Yanukovich's government allowed this brewing disaster to happen, i.e. violent riots and chaos. If there will be war, highly unlikely at this point, it would be between Western and Eastern Ukraine. Crimea is pretty much Russian. The mob who took over in Kiev knew that in advance.

 

[senseamp]

Nobody is going to invade Ukraine. Crimea may decide to separate, and Russia will support their ability to do so by proxy, but not with direct military action.

 

[gevorg]

^Yep

 

[JEDIYoda]

Nobody is going to invade Ukraine. Crimea may decide to separate, and Russia will support their ability to do so by proxy, but not with direct military action.

actually there may well come a time when direct military intervention will be used......as it stands right now you would have to have your head in the sand to think for one moment that Russia does not have a military presence albeit the troops are wearing uniforms with no marking . I believe the last thing Russia wants is to have to use troops!

 

[senseamp]

actually there may well come a time when direct military intervention will be used......as it stands right now you would have to have your head in the sand to think for one moment that Russia does not have a military presence albeit the troops are wearing uniforms with no marking . I believe the last thing Russia wants is to have to use troops!

Russia will "protect" Crimea, if Ukraine tries to suppress Crimea insurrection militarily. But Ukraine knows it, so it won't happen. Everyone knows Russia has a military presence in Crimea, they have a naval base there.

 

[rudder]

Nobody is going to invade Ukraine. Crimea may decide to separate, and Russia will support their ability to do so by proxy, but not with direct military action.

I don't think it will be that clean. Crimea is ~58% Russian, ~28% Ukrainian, 17% Crimean and the Muslim population is recovering from stalins purges and has been growing. Not to mention the substantial amount of oil and gas.

 

[senseamp]

I don't think it will be that clean. Crimea is ~58% Russian, ~28% Ukrainian, 17% Crimean and the Muslim population is recovering from stalins purges and has been growing. Not to mention the substantial amount of oil and gas.

Looks pretty clean to me. Tatars are the only ones protesting, Crimean Ukrainians are Russian speakers, and the new regime didn't do itself any favors with them by passing the language law. What are Tatars going to do? Nothing. And if they do something, they'll be labeled Islamic terrorists and suppressed.

 

[Bitek]

It's hard to see where Ukraine doesn't lose Crimea as Putin's pound of flesh for moving against him. I would bet he will halt the military there, and then work to undermine Ukraine economically. They need billions of dollars, and I can't see Europe really coming to their strong aid when they can barely motivate themselves to aid southern Europe.
The pro EU govt will fail again over time, and Putin thugs will move back in again

 

[Northern Lawn]

Wait for the Russian spring and then the Canadian spring.