Proof that Toyota is going to take over the world...

[Pliablemoose]

Originally posted by: OS
You guys need to look more in depth before beating on the battery issue.

Ford's Escape hybrid uses something like 100 D cell nimh batteries. At bulk cost, they're probably like 3-4 dollars a piece, so even if you have to replace the batteries, it's possible to do it as low as 300-400 dollars a set. I believe other manufacturers are taking the same route of using off the shelf cell sizes.

Of course if you buy them from the dealer, it'll cost you an arm, leg and testicle, but that's the same as with anything else car related. But if the market for hybrids gets big enough, you'll probably see battery refurbishing shops replacing battery packs for ~$500.

At anyrate, I've read stories where businesses running small fleets of hybrids getting 200K miles out of them already and not needing replacement batteries. Honda says the batteries in their hybrids are expected to last the life of the vehicle. The battery thing is a non issue.

As gas approaches ~$2.75 a gallon in some regions, for those who drive 500 miles a week or more, it is possible to recoup the 3-4K initial cost of a hybrid variant by the time car payments are done. If you keep the vehicle longer, everything else is extra savings. This technoloy is pretty forward looking, gas will not get any cheaper as time goes in. We will see consistently $3/gallon gas in some regions in the next 5 years or so, at which time hybrid technology will also achieve economy of scale.

Also as for the tax deduction, it has gotten extended several times since it's inception and will probably be extended again before 2006.

The hybrid storage battery consists of 250 D-sized cells in a sealed enclosure. Nickel-metal-hydride batteries have been used with excellent success in notebook computers and cell phones for years.

Batteryspace.com

That's more like $1800 for the Ford Escape's battery pack, if you do it yourself...

 

[mAdD INDIAN]

Originally posted by: NFS4

Originally posted by: mAdD INDIAN

Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Does anyone get the feeling that Toyota is just using the Prius as a smokescreen?

Toyota gets to advertise itself as a green car company, despite having nine SUVs in its lineup when you factor in the forthcoming FJ Cruiser.

Definately.

The Pruis brings down their average fuel economy. I wonder how the sales of the Toyota SUVs compare to the sales of their passenger cars?

The RX330 is the best selling model for Lexus

That doesn't tell me what the Toyota SUV sales are. I mean under the Toyota badge not Lexus.

Because Lexus sales don't affect the average fuel economy of Toyota cars..since Lexus and Toyota are considered seperate in that sense.

 

[NFS4]

Originally posted by: mAdD INDIAN

Originally posted by: NFS4

Originally posted by: mAdD INDIAN

Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Does anyone get the feeling that Toyota is just using the Prius as a smokescreen?

Toyota gets to advertise itself as a green car company, despite having nine SUVs in its lineup when you factor in the forthcoming FJ Cruiser.

Definately.

The Pruis brings down their average fuel economy. I wonder how the sales of the Toyota SUVs compare to the sales of their passenger cars?

The RX330 is the best selling model for Lexus

That doesn't tell me what the Toyota SUV sales are. I mean under the Toyota badge not Lexus.

Because Lexus sales don't affect the average fuel economy of Toyota cars..since Lexus and Toyota are considered seperate in that sense.

Come on, I thought you were more resourceful than that

http://www.theautochannel.com/news/2005/01/04/313808.html

Toyota cars (2004)
965,091

Toyota SUV's (2004)
382,495

Toyota light trucks (pickups, SUV's, minivans, etc)
807,031

 

[ElFenix]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: SportSC4

Originally posted by: ElFenix

Originally posted by: Wag
Even with gas prices being $2.50/ga how long would it take to make back the $3500 price difference on the Prius?

a normal civic is about 7.1 cents per mile in gas at 2.50.

a hybrid civic is about 5.5 cents per mile in gas at 2.50.

difference is about 1.6 cents per mile.

to make up the difference you'd have to drive 218750 miles

unfortunately i don't think gas will stay at $2.50 a gallon.

Hehehehe I have to laugh as the gap closes as the Elitists online said this would never happen.

<------- Sits back, opens :beer: and enjoys the wallowing :laugh:

at 5 dollars a gallon it still takes over 100,000 miles to make up for the initial price difference. and if you throw in $1500 (at least) for batteries it's about 150,000 miles.

hybrids won't make financial sense until the price of the option comes down to about $1000 or the price of gas goes up to $10 a gallon.

 

[mAdD INDIAN]

Originally posted by: NFS4

Originally posted by: mAdD INDIAN

Originally posted by: NFS4

Originally posted by: mAdD INDIAN

Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Does anyone get the feeling that Toyota is just using the Prius as a smokescreen?

Toyota gets to advertise itself as a green car company, despite having nine SUVs in its lineup when you factor in the forthcoming FJ Cruiser.

Definately.

The Pruis brings down their average fuel economy. I wonder how the sales of the Toyota SUVs compare to the sales of their passenger cars?

The RX330 is the best selling model for Lexus

That doesn't tell me what the Toyota SUV sales are. I mean under the Toyota badge not Lexus.

Because Lexus sales don't affect the average fuel economy of Toyota cars..since Lexus and Toyota are considered seperate in that sense.

Come on, I thought you were more resourceful than that

http://www.theautochannel.com/news/2005/01/04/313808.html

Toyota cars (2004)
965,091

Toyota SUV's (2004)
382,495

Toyota light trucks (pickups, SUV's, minivans, etc)
807,031

I'm a sad sad man. Thanks for the link! I'm surprised at the number of LS430's that are sold! its quite a bit for such an expensive car.

On the other hand I expected more from the Celica and MR2.

They sell 807k light trucks AND 956k cars a year? Good lord.

The future great great great great grand kids are set for life.

 

[OS]

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose

Originally posted by: OS
You guys need to look more in depth before beating on the battery issue.

Ford's Escape hybrid uses something like 100 D cell nimh batteries. At bulk cost, they're probably like 3-4 dollars a piece, so even if you have to replace the batteries, it's possible to do it as low as 300-400 dollars a set. I believe other manufacturers are taking the same route of using off the shelf cell sizes.

Of course if you buy them from the dealer, it'll cost you an arm, leg and testicle, but that's the same as with anything else car related. But if the market for hybrids gets big enough, you'll probably see battery refurbishing shops replacing battery packs for ~$500.

At anyrate, I've read stories where businesses running small fleets of hybrids getting 200K miles out of them already and not needing replacement batteries. Honda says the batteries in their hybrids are expected to last the life of the vehicle. The battery thing is a non issue.

As gas approaches ~$2.75 a gallon in some regions, for those who drive 500 miles a week or more, it is possible to recoup the 3-4K initial cost of a hybrid variant by the time car payments are done. If you keep the vehicle longer, everything else is extra savings. This technoloy is pretty forward looking, gas will not get any cheaper as time goes in. We will see consistently $3/gallon gas in some regions in the next 5 years or so, at which time hybrid technology will also achieve economy of scale.

Also as for the tax deduction, it has gotten extended several times since it's inception and will probably be extended again before 2006.

The hybrid storage battery consists of 250 D-sized cells in a sealed enclosure. Nickel-metal-hydride batteries have been used with excellent success in notebook computers and cell phones for years.

Batteryspace.com

That's more like $1800 for the Ford Escape's battery pack, if you do it yourself...

Sorry, apparently my memory is failing me. 250 batteries is the correct number. However it does say bulk is $6 each, so the cost is 1500.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: OS
As gas approaches ~$2.75 a gallon in some regions, for those who drive 500 miles a week or more, it is possible to recoup the 3-4K initial cost of a hybrid variant by the time car payments are done. If you keep the vehicle longer, everything else is extra savings.

.

Civic Sedan
$2.75/g
34 mi/g
=$0.08/mi

Civic Hybrid
$2.75/g
48 mi/g
=$0.06/mi

That's a difference of $0.02 a mile. With a price difference of $3500, it would take 175,000 miles, or over seven years, just to break even.

And this is using Honda's published numbers. If you were to use this guy real world Civic Hybrid fuel efficiency of 31.4 mpg, it would take approximately 8 years to make up the difference.

This technoloy is pretty forward looking, gas will not get any cheaper as time goes in. We will see consistently $3/gallon gas in some regions in the next 5 years or so, at which time hybrid technology will also achieve economy of scale.

Correcting for inflation, gas has been getting cheaper since the 80s

 

[drnickriviera]

Originally posted by: b0mbrman

And this is using Honda's published numbers. If you were to use this guy real world Civic Hybrid fuel efficiency of 31.4 mpg, it would take approximately 8 years to make up the difference. Correcting for inflation, gas has been getting cheaper since the 80s

That's pretty pathetic. We have a 95' E300D that gets 28-30 no matter what. It is rather sluggish since it doesn't have a turbo.

I question the intelligence of the Civic blogger. What person allows all 4 tires to get down to 15psi??

 

[OS]

Originally posted by: b0mbrman

Originally posted by: OS
As gas approaches ~$2.75 a gallon in some regions, for those who drive 500 miles a week or more, it is possible to recoup the 3-4K initial cost of a hybrid variant by the time car payments are done. If you keep the vehicle longer, everything else is extra savings.

.

Civic Sedan
$2.75/g
34 mi/g
=$0.08/mi

Civic Hybrid
$2.75/g
48 mi/g
=$0.06/mi

That's a difference of $0.02 a mile. With a price difference of $3500, it would take 175,000 miles, or over seven years, just to break even.

And this is using Honda's published numbers. If you were to use this guy real world Civic Hybrid fuel efficiency of 31.4 mpg, it would take approximately 8 years to make up the difference.

This technoloy is pretty forward looking, gas will not get any cheaper as time goes in. We will see consistently $3/gallon gas in some regions in the next 5 years or so, at which time hybrid technology will also achieve economy of scale.

Correcting for inflation, gas has been getting cheaper since the 80s

Your rounding is too aggressive, which matters because we are talking fractional increments over many years. It should be $.081/mi vs $.057/mi, $.024/mi difference, or 146K mile to recover the cost. My example was 500 miles a week, which is 26K miles per year, which is 5.6 years to recover the difference. This scenario is realistic for heavy commuters in areas with higher gas prices such as socal.

As for gas prices over time, alot of articles and people arbitrarily chose the 1980s as a point of reference for whatever reason. If you choose the low point of 1997-98, you will probably see that the cost of gas has risen faster than average inflation.

 

[rahvin]

Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Civic Sedan
$2.75/g
34 mi/g
=$0.08/mi

Civic Hybrid
$2.75/g
48 mi/g
=$0.06/mi

That's a difference of $0.02 a mile. With a price difference of $3500, it would take 175,000 miles, or over seven years, just to break even.

Lets use mathmatics that makes rounding errors effect the outcome! Yay! I always hated those damn chemists and their significant figures![/sarcasm]

Civic Sedan
$2.75/g
34 mi/g
100,000 mi
= $8088

Civic Hybrid
$2.75/g
48 mi/g
100,000 mi
= $5729

$8088 - $5729 = $2359 Savings.

Using 150,000mi -> $12132 - $8594 = $3538 Savings.

Now that we have had a little lesson in siginifcant figures you can return to your discussion using the corect way to calculate the savings you can argue over the correct MPG to be using for each car.

For the record, those buying the Hybrids aren't buying them becaues it's financially cheaper. Like my own views on the subject, I'm willing to spend more to reduce my impact on this world so that I can hand a better world over to my children. As the number of hybrids increases the cost difference in the prices between standard and hyrids will fall as the mechanisms of scale come into effect. Within a few years it is not inconcievable that the difference in cost will equal the savings. Under the assumption that the costs of gas will continue to increase given those circumstances it is not unreasonable to assume that the system will be cheaper in the long run. The unknowns right now are the mechanical lifespans of the new parts, given Toyota's history of reliability this will not be an issue to most people.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: OS

Originally posted by: b0mbrman

Originally posted by: OS
As gas approaches ~$2.75 a gallon in some regions, for those who drive 500 miles a week or more, it is possible to recoup the 3-4K initial cost of a hybrid variant by the time car payments are done. If you keep the vehicle longer, everything else is extra savings.

.

Civic Sedan
$2.75/g
34 mi/g
=$0.08/mi

Civic Hybrid
$2.75/g
48 mi/g
=$0.06/mi

That's a difference of $0.02 a mile. With a price difference of $3500, it would take 175,000 miles, or over seven years, just to break even.

And this is using Honda's published numbers. If you were to use this guy real world Civic Hybrid fuel efficiency of 31.4 mpg, it would take approximately 8 years to make up the difference.

This technoloy is pretty forward looking, gas will not get any cheaper as time goes in. We will see consistently $3/gallon gas in some regions in the next 5 years or so, at which time hybrid technology will also achieve economy of scale.

Correcting for inflation, gas has been getting cheaper since the 80s

Your rounding is too aggressive, which matters because we are talking fractional increments over many years. It should be $.081/mi vs $.057/mi, $.024/mi difference, or 146K mile to recover the cost. My example was 500 miles a week, which is 26K miles per year, which is 5.6 years to recover the difference. This scenario is realistic for heavy commuters in areas with higher gas prices such as socal.

As for gas prices over time, alot of articles and people arbitrarily chose the 1980s as a point of reference for whatever reason. If you choose the low point of 1997-98, you will probably see that the cost of gas has risen faster than average inflation.

...and so you arbitrarily chose the low point in 1997 as a starting point . Keep going along with what the media says if you enjoy being scared, but after that big spike in the early '80's, real retail gas prices have been boringly constant.

 

[rahvin]

Originally posted by: b0mbrman
...and so you arbitrarily chose the low point in 1997 as a starting point . Keep going along with what the media says if you enjoy being scared, but after that big spike in the early '80's, real retail gas prices have been boringly constant.

Do you know why oil futures have climed so much in the last year? Chinese demand for oil is skyrocketing, as in increasing at a rate in excess of 10% per year (Increasing demand in India is just a couple percent behind China). The Chinese are also in the process of constructing a strategic petroleum reserve larger than the US reserve and will begin filling it near the end of this year.

Contrast this against production which is near it's peak and by that I mean Saudi Arabia can pump something like 2-5% more oil per year before they reach maximum production. Every OPEC country is selling nearly everything they can physically pump. New drilling is just starting but isn't expected to increase market supplies for at least a couple years.

So we have oil demand increasing probably around 5-10% per year, constrained supplies and no possible relief for years at the earliest.

What happens when you have a flat supply and increasing demand? What happens if the drilling and oil production projects that are beginning right now can't meet the demand that will exist when they come online?

IMO it is not unrealistic to start making some rather nasty price assumptions about gasoline at this point and start planning ahead for it. Personally I would not be supprised if gas was $3 a gallon by this time next year.

 

[b0mbrman]

Significant digits?

1, No real world test in print has ever shown a hybrid getting its mfr's numbers.

2, You have to pay interest on that additional $3500 premium.

 

[OS]

Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Significant digits?

significant digits

1, No real world test in print has ever shown a hybrid getting its mfr's numbers.

This affects basically all cars, not just hybrids.

2, You have to pay interest on that additional $3500 premium.

paid for by the hybrid tax break.


Also, I looked at edmunds and the price difference is actually only 2K, civic hybrid vs civic EX, since the hybrid has all the features of an EX. With this figure in mind, it would only take ~85K miles to recover the cost difference, or a little more than 3 years at 500 miles a week.

 

[cheapgoose]

Originally posted by: AnyMal
I'm all for it.

<------ 1994 Corolla, 120k miles, still going strong.

my old 1990 corolla went 280k, before the speedometer broke, probably went another 5 k before we sold it. Got myself a 2002 Corolla, lovin' it.

 

[sharkeeper]

We'll have Tsunamis racing for every coast in the world before that happens.

No Way!

 

[pclstyle]

Originally posted by: helo7050
Toyota are garbage. .I would never buy it.

Along with:

Ford
Chevy
Kia
Saturn
GM
Buick

I'll only get a:

Mercedes
BMW
Porsche

yep you're a tool.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: OS

Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Significant digits?

significant digits

Thanks. I know what significant digits are. I was asking incredulously...as if to say that I can think of (at least) two other factors that make those significant digits less significant.

1, No real world test in print has ever shown a hybrid getting its mfr's numbers.

This affects basically all cars, not just hybrids.

Yes, real world mileage is worse than EPA by a fraction on all cars, so you're really comparing x(Hybrid - Gas) where x is less than one. Obviously, the difference in cost to operate the two is going to be less than just (hybrid - gas). For example,

Consumer Reports has found similar problems with the EPA measures. This week, the magazine endorsed Honda's hybrid Accord sedan as its top pick among family cars. Its auto staff got 27 mpg during its extensive tests. That's only 2 more mpg than the gasoline-only Accord V-6 recorded in the magazine's tests. The Accord hybrid should be getting 30 mpg in the city and 37 mpg on the highway, according to the EPA.

Link. That's right: a difference of two miles per gallon. Feel free to do the math on how long it would take a 2 mpg difference to get back the initial $3500 in that case

2, You have to pay interest on that additional $3500 premium.

paid for by the hybrid tax break.

The disappearing hybrid tax break? In the 30% tax bracket, you'll get back $300 this year. Next year, you'd only get back $150 for buying one. And if you buy one in 2007, you won't get anything back.

Also, I looked at edmunds and the price difference is actually only 2K, civic hybrid vs civic EX, since the hybrid has all the features of an EX. With this figure in mind, it would only take ~85K miles to recover the cost difference, or a little more than 3 years at 500 miles a week.

It has all the features of the EX...except for at least 17 horsepower and the sunroof .

 

[b0mbrman]

Meh...just for fun. Using the 2mph difference Consumer Reports got and instead using 12,000 miles a year:

Hybrid
$2.50/g / 27mpg = $0.09259/mi

Gas only
$2.50/g / 25mpg = $0.01000/mi

Difference
$0.1000/mi - $0.09259/mi = $0.00741/mi

So to make up the initial $3500 would take:
$3500 / $0.00741/mi / 12000mi/yr
= 39.36 years

 

[OS]

Originally posted by: b0mbrman

Originally posted by: OS

Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Significant digits?

significant digits

Thanks. I know what significant digits are. I was asking incredulously...as if to say that I can think of (at least) two other factors that make those significant digits less significant.

1, No real world test in print has ever shown a hybrid getting its mfr's numbers.

This affects basically all cars, not just hybrids.

Yes, real world mileage is worse than EPA by a fraction on all cars, so you're really comparing x(Hybrid - Gas) where x is less than one. Obviously, the difference in cost to operate the two is going to be less than just (hybrid - gas). For example,

Consumer Reports has found similar problems with the EPA measures. This week, the magazine endorsed Honda's hybrid Accord sedan as its top pick among family cars. Its auto staff got 27 mpg during its extensive tests. That's only 2 more mpg than the gasoline-only Accord V-6 recorded in the magazine's tests. The Accord hybrid should be getting 30 mpg in the city and 37 mpg on the highway, according to the EPA.

Link. That's right: a difference of two miles per gallon. Feel free to do the math on how long it would take a 2 mpg difference to get back the initial $3500 in that case

2, You have to pay interest on that additional $3500 premium.

paid for by the hybrid tax break.

The disappearing hybrid tax break? In the 30% tax bracket, you'll get back $300 this year. Next year, you'd only get back $150 for buying one. And if you buy one in 2007, you won't get anything back.

Also, I looked at edmunds and the price difference is actually only 2K, civic hybrid vs civic EX, since the hybrid has all the features of an EX. With this figure in mind, it would only take ~85K miles to recover the cost difference, or a little more than 3 years at 500 miles a week.

It has all the features of the EX...except for at least 17 horsepower and the sunroof .

motor trend mileage test

They had a +/- ~15% actual mileage vs EPA on the models they tested.


As for the V6 hybrid, this is a red herring, only a fool would buy a 30K vehicle with the main intention of saving money on gas. Honda has mentioned this car was more power/performance oriented than previous hybrids. Hybrid technology can be tuned to increase performance than economy.


hybrid tax break

It is a 2K deduction. At 30%, the cash benefit is $600.

As for disappearing, the full deduction is still good for 2005 and a simple search on google will show it has been extended several times before.


As for the lower power, the difference in torque is only 9 ft-lbs, but it comes in much lower at 3K rpms on the hybrid. The drivability will be about the same. You will not see the difference in power unless you drive consistently above 4K rpms, in which case you're a fool for buying a civic sedan thinking it's a race car.

 

[b0mbrman]

I will say you have never test-driven a Civic Hybrid if you say the driveability will be about the same.

From my own personal experience, the difference is very noticeable. It was bad to the point where I found myself having to mash the gas pedal to merge into city street traffic or to make left turns at green lights--all the while with the salesman having an embarrassed look on his face because he had previously told me it would drive just like a normal car.

Also, everyone who buys a Civic Hybrid gets that deduction so that bids up the market price for Civic Hybrids. Whereas you can easily buy a Civic LX for $1000 under sticker, you will never find a Civic Hybrid for less than MSRP.

Anyhow...stand by.

 

[KoolDrew]

Originally posted by: TheLonelyPhoenix

Originally posted by: helo7050
Toyota are garbage. .I would never buy it.

Along with:

Ford
Chevy
Kia
Saturn
GM
Buick

I'll only get a:

Mercedes
BMW
Porsche

No car thread is complete with an ignorant fanboi troll.

 

[b0mbrman]

$53,911 - Median family household income
$25,988 - Median nonfamily household income
Source: Census.gov

15% - That median household's marginal tax rate for 2005
Source: SaveWealth.com - Married filing joint / Single

$2000 - Clean-Fuel Vehicle Deduction for 2005
Source: IRS.gov

$300 - Refund based on those numbers

 

[b0mbrman]

$15,348 - True Market Value price for Honda Civic LX 4dr Sedan w/Front Side Airbags
Source: Edmunds.com
$716 - Add alloy wheels
$259 - Add deck lid spoiler
$16,326 - Total

$20,415 - True Market Value price for Honda Civic Hybrid 4dr Sedan
Source: Edmunds.com

$4089 - Real world price difference

 

[b0mbrman]

2.9% - Interest rate of 60-month loan based on current incentives
Source: Edmunds.com

$308 - Total interest paid over term of loan
$4097 - New effective price difference (add interest, subtract tax refund)