Professor who has correctly predicted 9 presidential elections says Trump will win in 2020 unless Democrats impeach

[JEDI]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...ly-predicted-nine-presidential-elections-says

"Democrats are fundamentally wrong about the politics of impeachment and their prospects for victory in 2020,” Lichtman told CNN’s Chris Cillizza on Tuesday.


Not impeaching seemed like the wisest choice:
https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/the-wisest-remedy-is-not-impeachment-of-trump.2565881/

but after this article.. wow

 

[Mai72]

I've been saying that Trump will be the next POTUS because the democratic party has swung waaaaaaaay too far to the left. People like AOC are pissing off and scaring many moderates who would be voting democrat this next election. Plus, you can't deny that the economy is doing very well under Trump. Look at the contenders. Bernie wants universal, government provided healthcare. Yang wants to give everyone $1k a month. Warren wants to excuse trillions of student loan debt. The only contender in my book is Joe Biden, and I don't think he's going to be able to trump the Trumpsta! Sadly.

We need a good moderate conserative Democrat. Someone who can stand up to Trump, but do so in a very strong conserative manner. Now someone who wants to give people free money.

 

[Ajay]

We need a good moderate conserative Democrat. Someone who can stand up to Trump, but do so in a very strong conserative manner. Now someone who wants to give people free money.

And I'd like a pony. Make that a unicorn.

 

[UberNeuman]

I've been saying that Trump will be the next POTUS because the democratic party has swung waaaaaaaay too far to the left. People like AOC are pissing off and scaring many moderates who would be voting democrat this next election. Plus, you can't deny that the economy is doing very well under Trump. Look at the contenders. Bernie wants universal, government provided healthcare. Yang wants to give everyone $1k a month. Warren wants to excuse trillions of student loan debt. The only contender in my book is Joe Biden, and I don't think he's going to be able to trump the Trumpsta! Sadly.

We need a good moderate conserative Democrat. Someone who can stand up to Trump, but do so in a very strong conserative manner. Now someone who wants to give people free money.

You really should get that hole in your head checked out.

 

[soundforbjt]

We need a good moderate conserative Democrat. Someone who can stand up to Trump, but do so in a very strong conserative manner. Now someone who wants to give people free money.

She lost in 2016.

 

[Indus]

I've been saying that Trump will be the next POTUS because the democratic party has swung waaaaaaaay too far to the left. People like AOC are pissing off and scaring many moderates who would be voting democrat this next election. Plus, you can't deny that the economy is doing very well under Trump. Look at the contenders. Bernie wants universal, government provided healthcare. Yang wants to give everyone $1k a month. Warren wants to excuse trillions of student loan debt. The only contender in my book is Joe Biden, and I don't think he's going to be able to trump the Trumpsta! Sadly.

We need a good moderate conserative Democrat. Someone who can stand up to Trump, but do so in a very strong conserative manner. Now someone who wants to give people free money.

LOL 2016 a conservative democrat!

 

[kage69]

I hope Pelosi's idea is the low and slow method of heat here. With the law being anathema to Trump, the Dems have to sell themselves as the other end of the spectrum, judicious stewards of the rule of law, which ultimately means carrying it out when necessary.

By her own words, 'there is substantial evidence of obstruction.' Not impeaching would mean disgusting Dem candidate supporters, as well as confirming the false impression of innocence to Trump supporters. That will boost Trump's odds in 2020 I'd bet. I'd rather let some republican Senators go down with their ship by protecting the guy who will look even worse after months of real impeachment-grade investigation. The Dems don't look limp and complacent that way either, quite the contrary.

 

[Indus]

I hope Pelosi's idea is the low and slow method of heat here. With the law being anathema to Trump, the Dems have to sell themselves as the other end of the spectrum, judicious stewards of the rule of law, which ultimately means carrying it out when necessary.

By her own words, 'there is substantial evidence of obstruction.' Not impeaching would mean disgusting Dem candidate supporters, as well as confirming the false impression of innocence to Trump supporters. That will boost Trump's odds in 2020 I'd bet. I'd rather let some republican Senators go down with their ship by protecting the guy who will look even worse after months of real impeachment-grade investigation. The Dems don't look limp and complacent that way either, quite the contrary.

I hope she begins impeachment inquiries in September 2020! Have the house investigators put out the case the day before the election and have the senate vote after the election.

 

[Moonbeam]

As far as I can tell the Democrats do have one positive thing going for them. None of the candidates so far see is an obvious criminal. There was a time when that might have counted for something. But thanks to the billions that have been spent keeping the real wealth owners pulling the strings to insure their ownership of that wealth never gets challenged, we have a nation full of zombified sheep dedicated to shit on anybody who would try to help them, those times seem to have long since past. Better to belong to a moron flock than becoming a socialist, one of those monsters that wants to insure that all the wealth in the country doesn't all go to the top. At least you will have lots of company to commiserate with in a state of poverty. Bye bye pride in rural life. Hello living on political handouts since your farm goods won't sell because of tarrifs

 

[UNCjigga]

I've been saying that Trump will be the next POTUS because the democratic party has swung waaaaaaaay too far to the left. People like AOC are pissing off and scaring many moderates who would be voting democrat this next election. Plus, you can't deny that the economy is doing very well under Trump. Look at the contenders. Bernie wants universal, government provided healthcare. Yang wants to give everyone $1k a month. Warren wants to excuse trillions of student loan debt. The only contender in my book is Joe Biden, and I don't think he's going to be able to trump the Trumpsta! Sadly.

We need a good moderate conserative Democrat. Someone who can stand up to Trump, but do so in a very strong conserative manner. Now someone who wants to give people free money.

Fact: AOC is not running for President.

Fact: For every socialist running for the Democratic Primary, there are at least 10 non-socialists also running.

Check out John Hickenlooper.

 

[Indus]

Fox Watching Republican Shocked To Learn That Mueller Didn’t Exonerate Trump

A woman at Rep. Justin Amash’s recent town hall was confused because she votes Republican listens to conservative news and she had never heard anything about the Mueller report not exonerating Trump.

NBC News reported:

Cathy Garnaat, a Republican who supported Amash and the president said she was upset about Amash’s position but wanted to hear his reasoning. She said that she will definitely support Trump in 2020 but that Tuesday night was the first time she had heard that the Mueller report didn’t completely exonerate the president.

“I was surprised to hear there was anything negative in the Mueller report at all about President Trump. I hadn’t heard that before,” she said. “I’ve mainly listened to conservative news and I hadn’t heard anything negative about that report and President Trump has been exonerated.”

Democrats will never be able to convince Republicans to support impeachment

The shock of the woman mentioned above is what epistemic closure and news bubbles look like in action. Democrats are going to have to overcome more than Trump on impeachment. They would also need to break through the conservative media bubble with the facts of the Mueller report. It is a fairy tale to think that Republicans will see the light of truth and justice when it comes to Trump.

The reality of the situation is much more difficult. Fox News and all conservative media outlets are going to band together to hold Republicans in line against impeachment. Unless Fox News or conservative websites start discussing the facts of Mueller’s findings, the information is never going to reach Trump’s hardcore base. Trump and Barr’s deceptions are being amplified by conservative media. The only way that Republicans will support impeachment is if conservative media gets on board. Since the odds of that happening are zero, the best path to Trump removal remains at the ballot box in 2020.

 

[Indus]

I went and looked at his stuff..

The Keys are statements that favor victory (in the popular vote count) for the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote.[7]

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

The above 13 keys are slightly different from the 12 keys originally proposed in 1981.[2]

LOL that means this whole thing is worthless due to the part in bold!

 

[mect]

I've been saying that Trump will be the next POTUS because the democratic party has swung waaaaaaaay too far to the left. People like AOC are pissing off and scaring many moderates who would be voting democrat this next election. Plus, you can't deny that the economy is doing very well under Trump. Look at the contenders. Bernie wants universal, government provided healthcare. Yang wants to give everyone $1k a month. Warren wants to excuse trillions of student loan debt. The only contender in my book is Joe Biden, and I don't think he's going to be able to trump the Trumpsta! Sadly.

We need a good moderate conserative Democrat. Someone who can stand up to Trump, but do so in a very strong conserative manner. Now someone who wants to give people free money.

Yeah, if they swing much farther left (alright, they'd have to swing a lot farther left), they might get back to where they were in the 1960s. It would be terrible to have government programs that support the working class instead of only the wealthy. Lets just keep passing tax cuts for the rich, growing the debt to force the closure of welfare programs, deregulating industry, and giving greater and greater control to those that already are above the law. Lets continue to fill our jails with petty criminals while the white collar oligarchs rob the country blind. We're already off the spectrum to the right. No sense trying to get back to the world of reason. Lets just push to get back on the spectrum I guess. Even though the majority of Americans support the policies of Bernie and Warren, those policies are far to far to the left. There's no way we can afford to support the lower class and help the upper class aggregate more wealth and power.

 

[Bitek]

They have to pivot to impeachment hearings eventually imo.

I think it's wise to hold back a bit to let the tension and furor build organically, but eventually Pelosi needs to let the leash go, otherwise I see the party revolting.

Let's let some of the subpoenas play out, get some public testimony of some high profile figures, and then maybe have a primary debate or two to allow an unfettered Trump bashing message to get out, then we're off to the races.

By Halloween at the latest.

 

[fskimospy]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...ly-predicted-nine-presidential-elections-says

"Democrats are fundamentally wrong about the politics of impeachment and their prospects for victory in 2020,” Lichtman told CNN’s Chris Cillizza on Tuesday.


Not impeaching seemed like the wisest choice:
https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/the-wisest-remedy-is-not-impeachment-of-trump.2565881/

but after this article.. wow

His model appears to be basically bullshit so I wouldn’t worry about his predictions too much.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/despite-keys-obama-is-no-lock/

 

[Greenman]

Congress will impeach Trump just prior to the election. Given that he probably won't be convicted by the senate, it's the step that will produce the most impact.

 

[Mai72]

Yeah, if they swing much farther left (alright, they'd have to swing a lot farther left), they might get back to where they were in the 1960s. It would be terrible to have government programs that support the working class instead of only the wealthy. Lets just keep passing tax cuts for the rich, growing the debt to force the closure of welfare programs, deregulating industry, and giving greater and greater control to those that already are above the law. Lets continue to fill our jails with petty criminals while the white collar oligarchs rob the country blind. We're already off the spectrum to the right. No sense trying to get back to the world of reason. Lets just push to get back on the spectrum I guess. Even though the majority of Americans support the policies of Bernie and Warren, those policies are far to far to the left. There's no way we can afford to support the lower class and help the upper class aggregate more wealth and power.

Yea, I get it and I'm 100% on board with what you're saying. But, it's all about perception wouldn't you agree? The problem is Trump will take the Democratic contendors and paint them all as radical socialist who only want to raise taxes and take money away from the working class. That's m y issue. Go ask most people what they think of Bernie, or Yang, or Warren. Many will say "where is the money coming from?" Universal helath care and free tuition sounds great but where is the money going to come from? That is the problem they face, and Trump will state that they want to raise taxes, etc.

 

[brycejones]

Yea, I get it and I'm 100% on board with what you're saying. But, it's all about perception wouldn't you agree? The problem is Trump will take the Democratic contendors and paint them all as radical socialist who only want to raise taxes and take money away from the working class. That's m y issue. Go ask most people what they think of Bernie, or Yang, or Warren. Many will say "where is the money coming from?" Universal helath care and free tuition sounds great but where is the money going to come from? That is the problem they face, and Trump will state that they want to raise taxes, etc.

Lol, it’s like no one has ever actually suggested how to pay for these things but you keep ignoring them.

Medicare for all costs less than we currently spend on healthcare as a country for example.

 

[nOOky]

They have to pivot to impeachment hearings eventually imo.

I think it's wise to hold back a bit to let the tension and furor build organically, but eventually Pelosi needs to let the leash go, otherwise I see the party revolting.

Let's let some of the subpoenas play out, get some public testimony of some high profile figures, and then maybe have a primary debate or two to allow an unfettered Trump bashing message to get out, then we're off to the races.

By Halloween at the latest.

Could be she wants to find something so egregious in his taxes or business dealings that even the nay saying public will have to agree that it can't just be swept under the rug? If obvious violations of the law are brought forth in testimony including lying under oath during impeachment proceedings with America watching, it would be hard for even the Senate to sweep it under the rug.

 

[fskimospy]

Yea, I get it and I'm 100% on board with what you're saying. But, it's all about perception wouldn't you agree? The problem is Trump will take the Democratic contendors and paint them all as radical socialist who only want to raise taxes and take money away from the working class. That's m y issue. Go ask most people what they think of Bernie, or Yang, or Warren. Many will say "where is the money coming from?" Universal helath care and free tuition sounds great but where is the money going to come from? That is the problem they face, and Trump will state that they want to raise taxes, etc.

Odd that nobody seems to be asking for how to pay for the trillions in debt Trump is running up. If you look at regular people Trump’s policies are hideously unpopular. America HATES them. As for the idea that Trump will try to paint his democratic opponent as a socialist, in case you haven’t noticed literally every Republican candidate has done that for the last 50 years at least.

Trump is a weak and unpopular incumbent, certainly the weakest since I’ve been alive. This doesn’t mean he CAN’T win, but things aren’t looking great for him.

 

[Bitek]

Could be she wants to find something so egregious in his taxes or business dealings that even the nay saying public will have to agree that it can't just be swept under the rug? If obvious violations of the law are brought forth in testimony including lying under oath during impeachment proceedings with America watching, it would be hard for even the Senate to sweep it under the rug.

Yeah, that's been my thought as well, I just wonder at what point it's more effective to invoke the impeachment investigative powers in to force compliance to providing information as well as national visibility.

There is a fair bit of evidence that D messaging isn't penetrating as far as it needs to.

Mueller's insistence that the public read a 400pg legal report isn't going to cut it in the Twitter age.

There has to be public testimony on tv to get real movement imo. IDK how effective that part has been to date. Something needs to be done

 

[HomerJS]

Odd that nobody seems to be asking for how to pay for the trillions in debt Trump is running up. If you look at regular people Trump’s policies are hideously unpopular. America HATES them. As for the idea that Trump will try to paint his democratic opponent as a socialist, in case you haven’t noticed literally every Republican candidate has done that for the last 50 years at least.

Trump is a weak and unpopular incumbent, certainly the weakest since I’ve been alive. This doesn’t mean he CAN’T win, but things aren’t looking great for him.

Also the Democrats have yet to brand Trump with the new taxes he has levied on the middle class in the form of tariffs. At the same time his tax cuts for the rich have had little effect on the same middle class.

 

[ewdotson]

Yea, I get it and I'm 100% on board with what you're saying. But, it's all about perception wouldn't you agree? The problem is Trump will take the Democratic contendors and paint them all as radical socialist who only want to raise taxes and take money away from the working class. That's m y issue. Go ask most people what they think of Bernie, or Yang, or Warren. Many will say "where is the money coming from?" Universal helath care and free tuition sounds great but where is the money going to come from? That is the problem they face, and Trump will state that they want to raise taxes, etc.

You understand that the Democrats could nominate the reanimated corpse of Friedrich Hayek and Trump would do that anyways, right? And have his base eat it up?

 

[Greenman]

Lol, it’s like no one has ever actually suggested how to pay for these things but you keep ignoring them.

Medicare for all costs less than we currently spend on healthcare as a country for example.

It's actually just about a wash cost wise, but more people get covered.
Most of the numbers thrown around for all the desired programs are pretty easy to check. Three or four cells in a spreadsheet will generally tell the the tail.

 

[HomerJS]

Yeah, that's been my thought as well, I just wonder at what point it's more effective to invoke the impeachment investigative powers in to force compliance to providing information as well as national visibility.

There is a fair bit of evidence that D messaging isn't penetrating as far as it needs to.

Mueller's insistence that the public read a 400pg legal report isn't going to cut it in the Twitter age.

There has to be public testimony on tv to get real movement imo. IDK how effective that part has been to date. Something needs to be done

The effect of live TV coverage has already been shown. Mueller's statement was little more then reading from the report yet it carried much weight.