Product Launch Timeline?

BEL6772

Senior member
Oct 26, 2004
225
0
0
It sounds like the two big players in the desktop CPU business are going dual-core. I've heard that the launches are towards the end of next year. Does it really take a year to go from 1st silicon to production shipping? How is that time used? I've read that AMD is already sampling DC Opterons. Are the Athlons really so far removed from the Opterons that they couldn't launch together? If Intel's first dual-core is just a couple of Prescotts put together, shouldn't they already have a good enough understanding of Prescott to turn a pair of Prescott out in less than a year?

It seems that it would be technically possible to get these new CPUs on the market sooner than what they're telling us. Am I wrong in my perception, or are these companies stalling?
 

PsharkJF

Senior member
Jul 12, 2004
653
0
0
They could be stalling, because I doubt there's an extensive mutlithreaded codebase for them to come to. [Servers, yes, but not desktops. Not yet, anyway.]

FYI the Opteron and the A64 are both the same K8 architecture. K8 was designed with DC in mind - the HT links for two cores on the silicon are there, they are inactive. AMD should be out of the gate first because the DC opteron will simply be two opteron cores right next to each other with the HT links activated and working [duh. :p].

Intel's dual core Smithfield is, as you said it, 2 Prescotts right next to each other. However, the key thing is, as far as we know, Prescott was not designed with dual-core capability in mind. Meaning Intel has to somewhat redesign the Prescott core to accomodate dual core. Thusly, they will have their dual core Smithfield desktop chips coming out after AMD ships the DC opteron.
 

BEL6772

Senior member
Oct 26, 2004
225
0
0
Thanks. I read that AMD actually demo'd a 4-way DC Opteron box at IDF. So, they have the parts, they work, but they're not selling them as Opterons until Q2 of next year and they're not selling them as Athlons until Q3 of next year. It seems like it would be huge for them to get a six month (or bigger) jump on Intel with this dual core movement. Intel is saying Q3 for its Smithfield, so if AMD waits, the advantage diminishes.

Is the codebase really important enough to throw away what looks like a possible six-month advantage? Are they concerned about inventories? Or is it just normal for a product to need a year between 1st silicon and release for tweaking/production ramp issues?
 

cheesehead

Lifer
Aug 11, 2000
10,079
0
0
From what I understand, it's simply an issue of cost. The first few batches will have low yields, but that's okay, seeing as to how the DC opterons will be around 800$ anyway. When they get the lithography down pat, they can start making the lower-cached (and therefore cheaper to make) DC A64 with large yeilds, allowing them to make a profit.
Or at least, that's what I understand. It might be simply for marketing reasons, as there afe rew programs that actually can get a beinifit from DC.
 

imported_kouch

Senior member
Sep 24, 2004
220
0
0
also it is wise to milk as much money as you can from the single core chips. I mean they have to get rid of that inventory first and have to produce a certain amount to make the whole gearing up the foundry etc for mass producing a certain chip worth while.
 

blahblah99

Platinum Member
Oct 10, 2000
2,689
0
0
I'm no expert at IC design cycles, but it usually takes anywhere from 6 months to a year or more to spin a new chip.

If they have 1st chip but have problems, it'll take at LEAST 6 months to rev the chip.

Expect Tuxdave to chime in any minute :)
 

TuxDave

Lifer
Oct 8, 2002
10,571
3
71
Originally posted by: blahblah99
I'm no expert at IC design cycles, but it usually takes anywhere from 6 months to a year or more to spin a new chip.

If they have 1st chip but have problems, it'll take at LEAST 6 months to rev the chip.

Expect Tuxdave to chime in any minute :)

I wasn't about to post... but now you made me feel pressured. :eek:

The question is, how far back do you want to go? It takes years to go from the ground up into a final chip. If you want to know what the newest things the Intel engineers are working on, it's definitely not next generation. It's next next NEXT generation. They don't even have a real transistor in the technology node that they're designing for, all they have are behavioral models to anticipate any future complications or issues that may arise in chip design.

So if I had to guess how will Intel get a chip out in 1 year, it's from one of two reasons. They already had a team working on this idea or 2, they're gonna do their best to start with an existing design. Lithography shouldn't be an issue if they're using the same technology node. Yield shouldn't be too bad because if they are going for a power-saving parallel design, each core will not have to run as fast as a single core would have.

 

pm

Elite Member Mobile Devices
Jan 25, 2000
7,419
22
81
There are two distinct (and very different) phases to silicon design: before first tape-out and after first tape-out. Different companies have different terms for these two phases, Intel calls it "front-end" and "back-end". Other companies call it pre-silicon, and post-silicon and others call it more simply "phase 1" and "phase 2". Whatever you want to call it, one thing is very common and that is that back-end development is generally underestimated by people - even engineers - who haven't actually done it.

The post-silicon phase is basically about 2 things: finding and fixing functional bugs and finding and fixing electrical marginalities and manufacturability issues. A functional bug is very similar to a software bug. In fact, I think there are almost so many similarities between the logical design of a CPU and writing code, that I think they are essentially the same thing. Finding bugs usually revolves around running code against the logical simulator and on the chip and seeing if they differ, and running legacy code (that should work) and see if it works. A CPU can't ship with any major bugs (or else it risks a very expensive recall), so all of the functions all need to be checked thoroughly. As the Pentium floating-point bug illustrated, it's not enough to verify that the CPU can add 1+1 and get 2. Ideally every single combination needs to be checked or else you risk the possibility that some combination of random numbers could end up with the wrong value (as was the case with FDIV). So a large chunk of post-silicon engineering is devoted to trying to check all of the functionality of the CPU as completely as possible.

Even on relatively simple microprocessors, it usually mathematically impossible to check every possible combination of logical input and processor state within a reasonable amount of time. I'm sure that I could find the formula for it somewhere, but exhaustively testing every possible input of a CPU with several hundred pins and hundreds of millions of transistors is essentially impossible within any reasonable product shipment goal. So at some point you have to "work smart" and test the combinations that are likely to be at risk and then hope you have done enough to ensure that it is correct. It's not a process that lends itself to being rushed.

The other chunk of post-silicon work comes from trying to get all of the marginalities out. When a CPU comes back, you might find that it only works at a narrow range of frequencies, temperatures and voltages. You may find that the number of good parts yielding is a little less than one might hope. You may find that certain combinations of instructions or data cause unexpected problems. You may find that, say, 90% of all of the parts coming back from fab don't work because a certain combination of shapes in metal end up coming back as a short due to a lithography problem. The list is extensive (endless?) of all of the problems that one might see. In any case, you will almost certainly find that the chip doesn't behave or yield exactly as well as one might have hoped.

Once you know that you have a problem (and this can be tricky in and of itself), then you need to debug the problem and find a fix for it. In modern times, high-speed testers and things like JTAG scan, and TAP functionality enable a large degree of debug to occur with just a few Unix commands, but still there is nearly always some form of intuitive leap that an engineer (or team) needs to make to figure out exactly what the problem is. Scan may tell you that a latch is not getting the correct value at a certain time, but trying to figure out why the value is incorrect can be very hard. And once the mechanism for the failure is found, then you need to find a fix for it that minimizes the amount of rework that needs to be done and to be very sure that the fix doesn't somehow cause some other problem inadvertently.

Due to the cost of lithography masks, fixes normally pile up and then are all performed at the same time in what is called a "stepping". A stepping is essentially a revision ot the mask in much the same way as software versions. Once you have a fix in, you then need to wait a while for the fab to make it and then the process starts all over again. Since you are finding problems and fixing them and then having to wait for a while, it's hard to know whether or not the particular problem is definitely fixed and to know whether or not this problem is masking some other problem. For example, a speedpath might prevent a latch from getting a correct value in time, and you can fix that speedpath and wait for a stepping turn only to find out that there was another speedpath just behind the first that means that you are only marginally further along towards your frequency goal than you were way back when you made the fix. There are a lot of things to check, it can be hard to get visibility into exactly what the root cause of a failure is and the inability to instantly fix problems and move on slows the whole process.


Similar to the reason why it takes literally a decade to make a deep-space probe (like Cassini), or the reason why it takes a decade to get a drug through the FDA process, the reason why it takes a long time to get a chip from tape-out to customer shipment is that you can't fix problems later on. It's a very complex process with a lot of variables, you have one chance to get it right, and the cost of failure is extremely high.


One might say that if you take a known good core "A" and step it twice on the same die, then it should be easy to know that it works fine. And definitely it helps a lot, but there is still plenty of work to be done. Interactions between the two cores need to be checked - and depending on the way that dual-core is implemented this can actually be a fairly daunting task. Increasing the die size can cause litho structures that worked fine in a smaller core, to run into problems. Doubling the cores can lead to power issues that need to resolved and can cause marginalities that previously could have been ignored to become unexpected problems. Thermal issues need to be investigated. Board-level power delivery needs to able to fill power demands. Reliability issues need to be checked. It should be a faster process than normal, but it is still a lot of work.


The International Test Conference (ITC) is going on this week in Charlotte, NC. If you picked up the proceedings, you'd probably get everything that I mentioned above in mind-numbing detail.

Patrick Mahoney
Senior Design Engineer
Intel Corp.
 

pm

Elite Member Mobile Devices
Jan 25, 2000
7,419
22
81
Originally posted by: TuxDave
Hillsboro by any chance?
Nope. Fort Collins, Colorado. We have a site out here working on future products for the Itanium Processor Family.
 

TuxDave

Lifer
Oct 8, 2002
10,571
3
71
Originally posted by: pm
Originally posted by: TuxDave
Hillsboro by any chance?
Nope. Fort Collins, Colorado. We have a site out here work on future products for the Itanium Processor Family.

Ah... oh well. I'm moving up to the branch in Hillsboro working in the desktop product group.