'President's folly': China reaches into US heartland in trade war

Page 2 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

UglyCasanova

Lifer
Mar 25, 2001
19,275
1,361
126
How are they more vulnerable than us? We are the ones funding an entire economy from borrowed money/debt. We are in a giant bubble. They are lending us money. Not the other way around. This is going to put a big hurt on the average household. We are taking on more debt than ever. The average American family is in debt up to their ears. You think they are in a place to pay 10 to possibly 20 percent more for tariffs. Remember brick and mortar almost being dead before the govt pumped all the Chinese money into the economy? Now imagine that but this time even worse because no one is buying not because of online being cheaper but because they can't afford either.

China's biggest fear is instability and political unrest. They have to keep growth going lest their be rumbles from within. They are an export driven economy so yeah it makes them more vulnerable to trade disputes, same with Germany. I disagree with the tariffs and agree with you that it's going to hurt American's more than they realize, but the political leadership in Beijing although they'd be loathe to admit it are definitely feeling the heat.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
China's biggest fear is instability and political unrest. They have to keep growth going lest their be rumbles from within. They are an export driven economy so yeah it makes them more vulnerable to trade disputes, same with Germany. I disagree with the tariffs and agree with you that it's going to hurt American's more than they realize, but the political leadership in Beijing although they'd be loathe to admit it are definitely feeling the heat.

I think the Chinese people know full well that this is not the making of their own leadership but rather of ours, one Donald Trump. Faith in their leadership is enormous, rightfully so, given the incredible progress made over the last 40 years. If Xi won't back down they'll stand behind him.
 

WHAMPOM

Diamond Member
Feb 28, 2006
7,628
183
106
Nonononono NO NOT the same kind af animal for one simple reason..Not covert. There is no false pretence here. China has a right to speak its mind? Even if that right does not fully extend to the private citizen but thats another matter.

(this is what we call a strawman right? or (false?) pretence?)
False equivalency is what you are looking for.
 
  • Like
Reactions: cytg111

WHAMPOM

Diamond Member
Feb 28, 2006
7,628
183
106
China's biggest fear is instability and political unrest. They have to keep growth going lest their be rumbles from within. They are an export driven economy so yeah it makes them more vulnerable to trade disputes, same with Germany. I disagree with the tariffs and agree with you that it's going to hurt American's more than they realize, but the political leadership in Beijing although they'd be loathe to admit it are definitely feeling the heat.
Side stepping the issue again?

edit: To ? or not to ?, let's make it a statement and set it to music as your theme song.
 

UglyCasanova

Lifer
Mar 25, 2001
19,275
1,361
126
I think the Chinese people know full well that this is not the making of their own leadership but rather of ours, one Donald Trump. Faith in their leadership is enormous, rightfully so, given the incredible progress made over the last 40 years. If Xi won't back down they'll stand behind him.


I’m not sure they care whose fault it is. It creates instability and that’s the one thing the party fears more than anything.
 

1prophet

Diamond Member
Aug 17, 2005
5,313
534
126
I’m not sure they care whose fault it is. It creates instability and that’s the one thing the party fears more than anything.

They have already showed the world how they deal with instability

tank-man-tiananmen-square-uncropped-bigger-picture.jpg


lszvwlu.jpg


Will Americans be able to handle the instability of the price correction coming, since they have relied on cheap Chinese goods to supplant their stagnant middle class wages which haven't kept up over the years.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ch33zw1z
May 13, 2009
12,333
612
126
They have already showed the world how they deal with instability



Will Americans be able to handle the instability of the price correction coming, since they have relied on cheap Chinese goods to supplant their stagnant middle class wages which haven't kept up over the years.

That's what these fools don't get is that we are winning the trade war. When we give the Chinese peanuts for all the goods we consume we win. We've been benefiting from it for years.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ns1

SMOGZINN

Lifer
Jun 17, 2005
14,221
4,452
136
Will Americans be able to handle the instability of the price correction coming, since they have relied on cheap Chinese goods to supplant their stagnant middle class wages which haven't kept up over the years.

This here is why I don't think that Trump understands what he is doing. This risks the most dangerous thing in American politics, waking the American Middle Class from its consumerism and entertainment orgy induced stupor. If Trump screws this up and ends the orgy America is going to have to face a hangover caused by 50 years of over indulgence and they are going to be pissed and will lash out at basically everyone.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ch33zw1z

Ventanni

Golden Member
Jul 25, 2011
1,432
142
106
How are they more vulnerable than us? We are the ones funding an entire economy from borrowed money/debt. We are in a giant bubble. They are lending us money. Not the other way around. This is going to put a big hurt on the average household. We are taking on more debt than ever. The average American family is in debt up to their ears. You think they are in a place to pay 10 to possibly 20 percent more for tariffs. Remember brick and mortar almost being dead before the govt pumped all the Chinese money into the economy? Now imagine that but this time even worse because no one is buying not because of online being cheaper but because they can't afford either.

It's a buyer vs seller position. China's economy relies on the United States purchasing $500B (ish) worth of stuff from their markets, whereas the United States only relies on China buying $125B (ish) from theirs. In the long term, the United States has the option to purchase many of those same goods from places like Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, or Vietnam where those tariffs don't exist, whereas China will struggle to find a replacement buyer at that magnitude. That's probably why China is so heavily invested in Africa right now. In its simplest explanation, the United States is a gigantic customer for China, and that customer can go elsewhere. That was precisely why Germany was very quick to send trade delegates to the United States to halt any potential for tariffs.

Will it hurt the US? Of course. It could mean US consumers paying higher prices for goods, although not necessarily if businesses in, say, Vietnam are willing to manufacture cheaper than the Chinese. For China though, that means massive job loss and an economic crunch, as their #1 customer potentially disappears to go elsewhere, and that's a risk they're not willing to take. China is actually in a very tight position right now, and they know it.

None of it is really favorable, but to your point, the US has been financing these huge differences in trade deficits through debt on the other side. Since the 1970's when we began allowing trade deficits, there has been a large amount of hard cash (relative to the GDP) disappear from the US economy. With less real cash, that has meant lower wage growth, lower savings, less investment, etc. It's also required businesses to run leaner, which I'm sure anywhere here who has worked for corporate America knows full well how that is.
 
  • Like
Reactions: s0me0nesmind1

dainthomas

Lifer
Dec 7, 2004
14,635
3,509
136
That's what these fools don't get is that we are winning the trade war. When we give the Chinese peanuts for all the goods we consume we win. We've been benefiting from it for years.

It boils down to Trump having no understanding of the term "trade deficit". This is obvious from numerous statements by him and people around him.
 

WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
31,442
9,343
136
deleted post

You know maybe he just just looks at your posts and thinks "What kind of loser gets a new account just to show the world how pathetic he is" then shrugs and gets on with stuff?
 
Last edited by a moderator:

WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
31,442
9,343
136
post deleted

Defend himself? I'm not sure what you actually think you're achieving here. You're not attacking him, you're making yourself look like a twat.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
31,442
9,343
136
post deleted

Says the guy that set up a second account because he couldn't cope with strangers on the internet not hearing his ranting! :D
 
Last edited by a moderator:
  • Like
Reactions: ch33zw1z
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
It's a buyer vs seller position. China's economy relies on the United States purchasing $500B (ish) worth of stuff from their markets, whereas the United States only relies on China buying $125B (ish) from theirs. In the long term, the United States has the option to purchase many of those same goods from places like Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, or Vietnam where those tariffs don't exist, whereas China will struggle to find a replacement buyer at that magnitude. That's probably why China is so heavily invested in Africa right now. In its simplest explanation, the United States is a gigantic customer for China, and that customer can go elsewhere. That was precisely why Germany was very quick to send trade delegates to the United States to halt any potential for tariffs.

Will it hurt the US? Of course. It could mean US consumers paying higher prices for goods, although not necessarily if businesses in, say, Vietnam are willing to manufacture cheaper than the Chinese. For China though, that means massive job loss and an economic crunch, as their #1 customer potentially disappears to go elsewhere, and that's a risk they're not willing to take. China is actually in a very tight position right now, and they know it.

None of it is really favorable, but to your point, the US has been financing these huge differences in trade deficits through debt on the other side. Since the 1970's when we began allowing trade deficits, there has been a large amount of hard cash (relative to the GDP) disappear from the US economy. With less real cash, that has meant lower wage growth, lower savings, less investment, etc. It's also required businesses to run leaner, which I'm sure anywhere here who has worked for corporate America knows full well how that is.

The stock market doesn't discriminate. China is severely down since the trade war started, the US economy is still making all time highs. I'm not saying that I know who the winner of this fight will be - but everyone making it out to be that China has the upper-hand are severely stupid and swayed by easy lobbying of corporate interests.

YTD Shanghai index is down ~15.5%.
 

Hans Gruber

Platinum Member
Dec 23, 2006
2,302
1,216
136
I do find it quite funny that China is using selective apathy to punish Trump's base. I would stop the tariffs and instead negotiate direct trade policies.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
I do find it quite funny that China is using selective apathy to punish Trump's base. I would stop the tariffs and instead negotiate direct trade policies.

Thats the problem - China is refusing to negotiate their obvious RIDICULOUS trade policies - which by now, should be condemned globally because everyone knows China is full of shit.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
The stock market doesn't discriminate. China is severely down since the trade war started, the US economy is still making all time highs. I'm not saying that I know who the winner of this fight will be - but everyone making it out to be that China has the upper-hand are severely stupid and swayed by easy lobbying of corporate interests.

YTD Shanghai index is down ~15.5%.

Of course US markets are up. Tax cut windfalls for the investor class have flooded them with hot money chasing returns.

The sad Truth for farmers is that Chinese buyers may not return to American suppliers even after this imbroglio is over.