Presidential Election Electoral Map

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umbrella39

Lifer
Jun 11, 2004
13,819
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126
Originally posted by: mshan
McCain needs to defend Ohio and Obama Michigan (I suspect Biden may have taken Pennsylvania out of play, and Michigan is starting to look like a long shot)

Obama has already probably got 264 electoral votes (Kerry '04 states and Iowa and New Mexico) if he can defend Michigan and Pennsylvania. Then either Colorado or Virginia alone would put him over the top.


Palin McLame '08 :thumbsup:

Michigan has been in the economic shitter for several years before it ever hit the rest of the country. I will predict a sizable win for Obama here. The margin imo will depend on how many Metro Detroiter's get off their asses and actually go and vote.
 

CADsortaGUY

Lifer
Oct 19, 2001
25,162
1
76
www.ShawCAD.com
Originally posted by: umbrella39
Originally posted by: mshan
McCain needs to defend Ohio and Obama Michigan (I suspect Biden may have taken Pennsylvania out of play, and Michigan is starting to look like a long shot)

Obama has already probably got 264 electoral votes (Kerry '04 states and Iowa and New Mexico) if he can defend Michigan and Pennsylvania. Then either Colorado or Virginia alone would put him over the top.


Palin McLame '08 :thumbsup:

Michigan has been in the economic shitter for several years before it ever hit the rest of the country. I will predict a sizable win for Obama here. The margin imo will depend on how many Metro Detroiter's get off their asses and actually go and vote.

Uhh... are you sure that's a good thing for them to vote? ;) Didn't their Mayor just get tossed in the clink?
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
"McCain advisers see Florida as very competitive but likely to end up their column. They consider Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania as key to the election, believing that whoever wins two of the three in the industrial heartland will win.

The vice presidential candidates may be called upon to play central roles in the battle for these states. Biden, who was raised in a working-class family in Scranton, Pa., will vouch for Obama among white voters there. McCain's team plans to use Palin to woo small-town and rural voters in those states, projecting herself as one of them, a "hockey mom" who shares their values."

Link

 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
142
116
I'll try to find the link, but I read last night that McCain needs 55% of the registered Independent vote and 15% of the registered Democratic vote to win.

This, in a year when party affiliation is 10% higher for Democrats than Republicans. Getting the GOP base to the polls won't be enough to win.

Of course, this statistical model completely ignores brencat's KKK factor.
 

winnar111

Banned
Mar 10, 2008
2,847
0
0
Originally posted by: umbrella39
Originally posted by: mshan
McCain needs to defend Ohio and Obama Michigan (I suspect Biden may have taken Pennsylvania out of play, and Michigan is starting to look like a long shot)

Obama has already probably got 264 electoral votes (Kerry '04 states and Iowa and New Mexico) if he can defend Michigan and Pennsylvania. Then either Colorado or Virginia alone would put him over the top.


Palin McLame '08 :thumbsup:

Michigan has been in the economic shitter for several years before it ever hit the rest of the country. I will predict a sizable win for Obama here. The margin imo will depend on how many Metro Detroiter's get off their asses and actually go and vote.

Yeah, but part of the reason its been in the shitter is the state government.
 

winnar111

Banned
Mar 10, 2008
2,847
0
0
Originally posted by: jpeyton
I'll try to find the link, but I read last night that McCain needs 55% of the registered Independent vote and 15% of the registered Democratic vote to win.

This, in a year when party affiliation is 10% higher for Democrats than Republicans. Getting the GOP base to the polls won't be enough to win.

Of course, this statistical model completely ignores brencat's KKK factor.

I believe its called the Bradley effect, and some people say it caused Obama to lose NH in the primaries.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...he_bradley_effect.html

I don't know whether it actually exists or not, but the possibility remains.
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
142
116
Michigan went for Kerry by 3 points in 2004, and Obama has a better average than that right now.

Obama will have no problem winning all of Kerry's states, plus New Mexico and Iowa.

That gives him 6 electoral votes short of the finish line, and a variety of states that could give him the win. VA, OH, FL, NV, CO, MT.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
I wonder if the Rev. Wright / race factor has already been baked into the cake (polls) as a result of the contentious Democratic Primaries? (i.e. persuadables have already committed to one candidate or the other)

From what I've been reading, the economy trumps everything else this year and Obama just needs to successfully keep linking McLame to Bush to close the deal on November 4.

 

umbrella39

Lifer
Jun 11, 2004
13,819
1,126
126
Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY
Originally posted by: umbrella39
Originally posted by: mshan
McCain needs to defend Ohio and Obama Michigan (I suspect Biden may have taken Pennsylvania out of play, and Michigan is starting to look like a long shot)

Obama has already probably got 264 electoral votes (Kerry '04 states and Iowa and New Mexico) if he can defend Michigan and Pennsylvania. Then either Colorado or Virginia alone would put him over the top.


Palin McLame '08 :thumbsup:

Michigan has been in the economic shitter for several years before it ever hit the rest of the country. I will predict a sizable win for Obama here. The margin imo will depend on how many Metro Detroiter's get off their asses and actually go and vote.

Uhh... are you sure that's a good thing for them to vote? ;) Didn't their Mayor just get tossed in the clink?

Not yet unfortunately. But he will be in the clink very soon. Just in time to watch the election results from the prison TV :) There are of course people in Detroit who still support him and would vote for him again, which is pathetic imho.