PREDICTION: countdown to failure, Windows 8 RT tablet will be an unmitigated failure.

Page 7 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

The Microsoft RT tablet will fail

  • True

  • False


Results are only viewable after voting.

preslove

Lifer
Sep 10, 2003
16,754
64
91
It may be a niche market, but I definitely think there is a market for Windows 8 pro tablets.

It being a niche product will be a failure, given all the money they're burning on design and marketing. Plus, they're hurting their core product buy shoehorning metro into their desktop os.
 

dagamer34

Platinum Member
Aug 15, 2005
2,591
0
71
MS has already cut orders from 4 to 2 million. Now the prediction is that they won't even sell a million this quarter. http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsav...tr-surface-sales-below-1m-units-analyst-says/

The #1 thing you must ask with all articles like this is "Where did you get your information?" It's obvious some places make stuff up, which is why I ignore all of them because a lot of "analysts" know even less than the average person on these forums.

Why isn't the Surface selling well? Well, gee, it's only available online and in Microsoft Stores. Why aren't other Windows tablets selling well? Well, when you go to a Best Buy, they don't have any of the "good" ones in stock like the HP Envy x2, Dell XPS 10, or Samsung ATIV Smart PC/Smart PC Pro. A store can't sell what isn't available.
 

podspi

Golden Member
Jan 11, 2011
1,982
102
106
Just picked up the Samsung ATIV 500t. The dock is a bit disappointing (requires you to really push it in to stick, otherwise it will dock/undock a ton -- also no battery) but fanless + wacom support tipped it over for me.

After playing with it for a while I am having a hard time believing ARM tablets will succeed unless the pricing changes in a big way. Unless they can compete on price, next-gen atom will sweep the market. On the price competitive not though, they were selling the ASUS VivoTab RT for $399 @ the local Microsoft store. Not bundled with the dock, but ASUS will give one to you for free. Almost bit, but how many tablets does somebody really need? :D


If they can get to the point where decent ARM-based tablets are in the $299~$399 range I think they will be strong competitors. Otherwise, why bother? That being said, while I was not a hater of Windows 8, after using it in a tablet it is like a light went on in my head. This thing makes other tablets feel like overpriced toys.
 
Last edited:

s44

Diamond Member
Oct 13, 2006
9,427
16
81
Unless they can compete on price, next-gen atom will sweep the market.
Given that ARM is already faster than Atom... what!?

Just because current RT devices are literally a year behind the curve on SOC now (they're on the same processor as my old old Prime!) doesn't mean that will confuse be the case.
 

podspi

Golden Member
Jan 11, 2011
1,982
102
106
Given that ARM is already faster than Atom... what!?

Just because current RT devices are literally a year behind the curve on SOC now (they're on the same processor as my old old Prime!) doesn't mean that will confuse be the case.

The review of the A15-based Chromebook did not leave me particularly impressed with the A15's performance. I think ARM's primary advantage going forward will be cost, not performance/watt.
 

dagamer34

Platinum Member
Aug 15, 2005
2,591
0
71
Just picked up the Samsung ATIV 500t. The dock is a bit disappointing (requires you to really push it in to stick, otherwise it will dock/undock a ton -- also no battery) but fanless + wacom support tipped it over for me.

After playing with it for a while I am having a hard time believing ARM tablets will succeed unless the pricing changes in a big way. Unless they can compete on price, next-gen atom will sweep the market. On the price competitive not though, they were selling the ASUS VivoTab RT for $399 @ the local Microsoft store. Not bundled with the dock, but ASUS will give one to you for free. Almost bit, but how many tablets does somebody really need? :D


If they can get to the point where decent ARM-based tablets are in the $299~$399 range I think they will be strong competitors. Otherwise, why bother? That being said, while I was not a hater of Windows 8, after using it in a tablet it is like a light went on in my head. This thing makes other tablets feel like overpriced toys.

More likely to see better value at the $499 price point as time goes on. I mean, if you had all of the same apps the iPad has, with an interface that properly supports keyboard and mouse input, and the only desktop apps were Office and IE, I think most people could get by just fine.

The issue isn't the price quite so much as the value you get. When the average computer in the US sells for $450, people expect it to do more than what RT currently provides, but I expect that to change as time goes on.
 

Puddle Jumper

Platinum Member
Nov 4, 2009
2,835
1
0
The #1 thing you must ask with all articles like this is "Where did you get your information?" It's obvious some places make stuff up, which is why I ignore all of them because a lot of "analysts" know even less than the average person on these forums.

Why isn't the Surface selling well? Well, gee, it's only available online and in Microsoft Stores. Why aren't other Windows tablets selling well? Well, when you go to a Best Buy, they don't have any of the "good" ones in stock like the HP Envy x2, Dell XPS 10, or Samsung ATIV Smart PC/Smart PC Pro. A store can't sell what isn't available.

How is the XPS 10 good? It's Snapdragon S3 powered which is just sad.
 

podspi

Golden Member
Jan 11, 2011
1,982
102
106
For some reason, some places do list it online using an S3, but I am pretty sure it actually is an S4.

That being said, for an ARM-based machine, it has to be cheaper. What I don't understand is why doesn't Microsoft price windows based on a scale,

Example: They charge 5% of the original MSRP up to a point. So if somebody is making a cheap 7" tablet targeted at the $199 price point, they pay $10 for the license. If you are making a $1000 dollar machine, then you pay $50. I think this would be a better system than licensing out Windows at some constant cost per OEM.

Unless they already do this and just set the percentage too high (and 5% could be too high, I don't know).
 

Zink

Senior member
Sep 24, 2009
209
0
0
Sticking to 10" seems best for now. It's closer to laptop sized and it is best they focus their efforts on doing one thing right and then branching from there if they can get that figured out.
 

dagamer34

Platinum Member
Aug 15, 2005
2,591
0
71
For some reason, some places do list it online using an S3, but I am pretty sure it actually is an S4.

That being said, for an ARM-based machine, it has to be cheaper. What I don't understand is why doesn't Microsoft price windows based on a scale,

Example: They charge 5% of the original MSRP up to a point. So if somebody is making a cheap 7" tablet targeted at the $199 price point, they pay $10 for the license. If you are making a $1000 dollar machine, then you pay $50. I think this would be a better system than licensing out Windows at some constant cost per OEM.

Unless they already do this and just set the percentage too high (and 5% could be too high, I don't know).

They already do this to some extent, but those deals have never been revealed for obvious reasons, Microsoft does not want one OEM getting angry because another OEM got a better deal. But a license on a $300 machine is clearly not the same as one that is $1700. Again, no one knows the specifics.

As far as actual cost of the devices themselves, OEMs are pricing at whatever the market will bare. There is no magical pricing fairy that tells these companies what a good price is. Customers naturally want it cheaper so they can spend less, businesses want it more expensive to make more money. As with a y new product, prices will start high and drop from there, so if you don't like pricing now, just wait a while. Simple as that.
 

TekDemon

Platinum Member
Mar 12, 2001
2,296
1
81
If it was 1) $299 2) Heavily optimized to use all 4 CPU cores in all native apps (and/or instead shipped with a much more powerful SoC) and 3) entirely separate from Windows 8 this might have been a pretty good idea. As it is, it's overpriced and under-performing with no apps, and the stupid new UI has ruined my laptop. I can't believe they managed to pack this much fail into a new launch.

I think the worst part is that Surface RT has probably ruined Surface Pro's chances of success a little, I think Surface Pro would have been a really great product in it's own right.
 
Last edited:

mmntech

Lifer
Sep 20, 2007
17,501
12
0
The Surface RT has a lot of problems, that's for sure. Tests have shown that's it's generally slower than the iPad and Galaxy Note 10.1 across most benchmarks. That's despite having double the cores and memory of the iPad. Lack of a retina display is also a major knock against it. The iPad and Note aren't that much more expensive, which makes them no-brainers. Better hardware, better app support. The other problem is the same one RIM had. Windows RT came too late into an already overcrowded market, with no real differentiation over competing operating systems.

I do think Windows RT is a decent OS and I think the tablet can be saved. The general concept with the software is good. It just needs a bit of refining to get it running better on ARM chips. Hardware is where drastic improvements are needed. It needs retina, a newer SoC, better battery life, and a sleeker design. Touch cover has to go. It has to match the performance of the iPad and not be a dime more expensive.

On the software side, Microsoft is going to have to do what Apple did. The OS is not Windows just like iOS is not OSX. They're built on the same foundation but they have to be developed separately. I think that's the fatal flaw of Windows 8, is it's trying to be two things at once. I'd completely eliminate the desktop environment. It's been tried before, but just doesn't work for tablets. Keep tightening the code and eliminating unnecessary bloat to improve performance and battery life.

From there, they've gotta market the hell out of it. Take on what people hate most about the iPad and give them a meaningful alternative. Show, don't tell.
 

Pia

Golden Member
Feb 28, 2008
1,563
0
0
He deleted his original response but it says that he didn't make an x86 version, any reason behind that?
I got the impression that is because the game is already distributed on PC, and contractual agreements with their publisher prevent the dev from releasing the game for another app store on the PC from which the publisher would not get a cut. Which is quite understandable.
 

finbarqs

Diamond Member
Feb 16, 2005
3,617
2
81
History repeats itself: This thread is beginning to sound like the HP Touchpad... The OS has a lot of promise, but never got any traction. Good news: People are still buying windows 7. Bad news, computer sales has dropped tremendously: both laptop and desktops.

Funny, I'm beginning to think Apple will start outselling PC's...
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,134
2,450
126
I tried one at my local Microsoft store, and it's pretty slick. Is it worth $599 with the keyboard cover? Nope.

Bummer... I might have bought one new at $299. Now I need to wait for a liquidation sale to get one for a decent price.
 

lopri

Elite Member
Jul 27, 2002
13,310
687
126
http://www.pcpro.co.uk/news/378562/hit-game-makes-52-in-first-week-on-windows-rt

Needless to say, the developer, Rubicon, was not happy with RT sales.

Can someone explain this to me? Apparently the game is only available to RT but not x86 version of Windows 8, and that is why MS refused to promote it at first. I thought this shouldn't occur? Many people claimed that a developer has to go extra miles to make an app incompatible with x86, using MS' tool, and anything that works on RT should work naturally on x86.

Edit: Nevermind. I missed Pia's post #167.
 
Last edited: