Predicting random violence by mathematics

[Analog]

Ongoing adaptation by Red Queen (i.e. insurgents, or terrorist group) and counter-adaptation by Blue King (i.e. coalition military, or counterterrorism organization) leads to a pattern in the escalation of fatal attacks. This pattern is similar to learning patterns seen in nonviolent human activities as diverse as pencil puzzles, ship-building, software installation and cancer surgery. Credit: The MITRE Corporation/Dr. Brian Tivnan


(PhysOrg.com) -- In a new study published in Science, researchers, led by physicist Neil Johnson from the University of Miami, show that attacks by groups such as the Taliban or Hezbollah may seem sporadic, they eventually begin to follow a mathematical pattern.

The researchers looked through public data of military fatalities during the period of 2003 to 2010 in Iraq as well as a ten year period of fighting throughout Afghanistan. Using an open-access software, the researchers discovered that after an initial gap between the first two attacks, the attacks that follow seem to come faster and more frequent, but begin to follow a mathematical pattern.


This gradual increase and predictability of attacks seems to point to the facts that, essentially, practice makes perfect. The more the insurgents execute attacks, the easier and more predictable they become. The interval between the first two attacks is the key to predicting future attacks. The researchers were able to devise an equation, based on this interval, which is able to estimate the course of subsequent attacks.
The researchers tested this equation on over 3000 fatal terrorist attacks throughout the world and in all tests; the escalation of subsequent attacks estimated by the equation closely matched the actual outcomes.


http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-07-random-violence-mathematics.html