Possibly Israeli strike on Iran fraught with logistical difficulties.

[cybrsage]

Best be ready for perpetual war if you're going to attack, because that's what the Iranians will give you if you do.

Maybe not. If we let the Shah's son come in and setup an interim government with him as a constitutional monarch (which he said he already supports), and gather together the pro-democracy people (who already have a support structure created to form a democratic government AND already agreed to the Shah's suggestion), Iran could stabilize quickly.

Persians are not Arabs...Persians have a far richer history and are far more ready to take back control of their own destiny.

 

[Jhhnn]

Maybe not. If we let the Shah's son come in and setup an interim government with him as a constitutional monarch (which he said he already supports), and gather together the pro-democracy people (who already have a support structure created to form a democratic government AND already agreed to the Shah's suggestion), Iran could stabilize quickly.

Persians are not Arabs...Persians have a far richer history and are far more ready to take back control of their own destiny.

Oh, you must mean right after the invasion that'll never happen, right?

They already have control of their own destiny- they got it when they threw out the Shah, the brutal US puppet, in 1978.

 

[JEDIYoda]

Sadly, IMHO, piasabird is simply not very well informed about the range of Israeli options.
Even though and point granted, Israel has the military capacity to attack Iran.

But the paisabird delusion is maybe in the pisabird comment, "They ( assuming Israel) are not some backward bumpkins" But problem, Iran are not backyard Bumpkins either.

But more complete military analysis comments shoot some holes in Israeli options. (1) It will take at least 100 Israeli planes to strike Iran, and Israeli has only 100 planes with the range sufficient to even reach Iran. Yes, Israel has some refueling capacity, but given the fact, Israeli tankers can only refuel 8 planes per tanker, and there is some doubt Israel has enough tankers to do the job. Yes Israel has some advanced bunker buster bombs, but no Israel planes big enough to carry any of the most effective. As most Iranian nuclear sites, some 40 in number, are too deeply buried to yield to even 2 or three bunker buster hits.

Nor does that factor in what tactics Iran would use against Israel or the Persian gulf, but justified Iranian target number one would be the Israeli breeder reactor at Dismona.

Meanwhile as a US citizen I am really pissed at Bozo Netanyuhu whose threats have kited my US gasoline prices by at least 50 cents per gallon. And if Israel is fool enough to attack Iran, I hope US carriers in the Persian Gulf will simply shoot down Israeli planes instead. Or better yet, force Israel planes to return to base instead.

Amazingly -- piasabird is very well informed about the range of Israeli options. Yet we will not go there. Simply because when and if Israel does decide a preemptive strike is in order. All the logistical issues will have been satisfactorily worked out.

Shame on you of all people Lemon law to not understand that the world has no clue what israels true capabilities are........hmmmmm

 

[Jhhnn]

Amazingly -- piasabird is very well informed about the range of Israeli options. Yet we will not go there. Simply because when and if Israel does decide a preemptive strike is in order. All the logistical issues will have been satisfactorily worked out.

Shame on you of all people Lemon law to not understand that the world has no clue what israels true capabilities are........hmmmmm

Interesting article about Iran's newest enrichment facility, built under 250ft of granite-

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/25/world ... &emc=tha22

Attack that, Biatch.

I figure all the Israeli chest thumping is duh-version/ extortion wrt their ongoing expansion in the West Bank... It's an election year, and they'll be twisting Obama's arm mercilessly, threatening to unleash the dogs of AIPAC if he doesn't give them something...

 

[Lemon law]

Shame on you JediY for not understanding what Bozo Netanyuhu limitations are.

No one underestimates Netanyuhu's ability to be stupid, the JediY delusion, IMHO, is that Bozo Netanyuhu stupidity will not result in the end of the State of Israel. If Israel threatens the flow of oil in the Persian gulf, the larger world will cheerfully squash Israel like an annoying mosquito.

Israel is already under world wide probation for its over aggressions. Get real JediY.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Shame on you JediY for not understanding what Bozo Netanyuhu limitations are.

No one underestimates Netanyuhu's ability to be stupid, the JediY delusion, IMHO, is that Bozo Netanyuhu stupidity will not result in the end of the State of Israel. If Israel threatens the flow of oil in the Persian gulf, the larger world will cheerfully squash Israel like an annoying mosquito.

Israel is already under world wide probation for its over aggressions. Get real JediY.

Israel does not threaten the oil - they have no access to it or choke points.

Iran has access to choke points; they have shown that they will do it based on their needs or plans, not another countries actions.

While you may desire Israel to be crushed; you have yet to show you and how it would be done (outside the mushroom cloud or within your mushroom filled mind)

You state the Israel is under a probation - who is the probation officer and when does the officer reside to be reported to.

Or is this another one of your fantasy statements

 

[Jhhnn]

Iran need do nothing other than cease production for the price of oil to spike insanely in the wake of an Israeli attack, and to stay there until hostilities are resolved. The cost of insurance for ships entering the gulf will do likewise, if it's available at all.

 

[Nebor]

Iran need do nothing other than cease production for the price of oil to spike insanely in the wake of an Israeli attack, and to stay there until hostilities are resolved. The cost of insurance for ships entering the gulf will do likewise, if it's available at all.

Meh, we have plenty of money.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Iran need do nothing other than cease production for the price of oil to spike insanely in the wake of an Israeli attack, and to stay there until hostilities are resolved. The cost of insurance for ships entering the gulf will do likewise, if it's available at all.

Iran not selling oil will destroy that economy quickly. What reserves exists to be able to bring in supplies that are needed?

 

[EagleKeeper]

dp

 

[Darwin333]

US oil production has definitely increased markedly under Obama. He has had no problem signing permits either, despite what the right wing thinks. (inexplicably)

He did hold up a ton of permits for far longer than necessary in my part of the world, not sure about the rest of the country.

And my point still stands, the increase in production under Obama has virtually nothing to do with Obama's policies because damn near any well would take longer than 3 years to come online from the date the permit was issued.

All that aside, the real purpose of the chart is to show that the recent increase in gas prices is not related to some sort of Kenyan communist plot to get rid of America's oil producing industry, that this has happened even in the face of increasing production.

Shrug, again these are permits that were issued prior to Obama. I would bet that he could have completely stopped issuing permits and we would have seen the exact same trend.

 

[cybrsage]

Oh, you must mean right after the invasion that'll never happen, right?

That was the scenario already painted, yes. If there is an invasion, the lawless period will be FAR shorter in Iran than in Iraq.

They already have control of their own destiny- they got it when they threw out the Shah, the brutal US puppet, in 1978.

0_o

They have control over their own destiny? You mean like being allowed to vote for the candidates the Supreme Council of Clerics say they can vote for and no one else? Like they are allowed to convert away from Islam to another religion (or to none at all)?

Sounds like a lot of control me to...if by "control of their own destiny" you mean "someone else controls their destiny".

 

[Jhhnn]

That was the scenario already painted, yes. If there is an invasion, the lawless period will be FAR shorter in Iran than in Iraq.



0_o

They have control over their own destiny? You mean like being allowed to vote for the candidates the Supreme Council of Clerics say they can vote for and no one else? Like they are allowed to convert away from Islam to another religion (or to none at all)?

Sounds like a lot of control me to...if by "control of their own destiny" you mean "someone else controls their destiny".

Iranians chose the form of govt they have today. If they find it sufficiently troublesome, they'll change it themselves. The more outsiders try to fiddle with it, the stronger they'll hold onto it.

So, uhh, are you contending that the Shah was less oppressive than their current govt, or what? That the people had more of a voice?

 

[woolfe9999]

He did hold up a ton of permits for far longer than necessary in my part of the world, not sure about the rest of the country.

And my point still stands, the increase in production under Obama has virtually nothing to do with Obama's policies because damn near any well would take longer than 3 years to come online from the date the permit was issued.



Shrug, again these are permits that were issued prior to Obama. I would bet that he could have completely stopped issuing permits and we would have seen the exact same trend.

I think you're actually correct on the mechanics of this: there has been an actual increase in production in spite of Obama approving fewer permits, due to the time lag with permits issued under the previous administration. OTOH, it seems tightening up was mainly due to the spill and that it's starting to turn around:

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...e-bachmann-claims-there-has-been-just-one-ne/

Bachmann's false remark is of less interest here than the following:

According to Andy Radford, senior policy adviser at the American Petroleum Institute, permit approvals have dropped 65 percent, post gulf oil spill. Prior to the gulf disaster, the Obama administration reported approving 217 new well permits (shallow and deepwater).

The devil's in the details on these things," Radford said, noting that permits include a lot of different drilling activities.

But the pace of permitting is picking up, he said. "We'll get to the new normal eventually.

- wolf

 

[cybrsage]

Iranians chose the form of govt they have today. If they find it sufficiently troublesome, they'll change it themselves. The more outsiders try to fiddle with it, the stronger they'll hold onto it.

Eventually they will. The scenario to which I replied had the US invading Iraq as its premise. Please try to follow along.

So, uhh, are you contending that the Shah was less oppressive than their current govt, or what? That the people had more of a voice?

Other than you, who claimed this?

 

[woolfe9999]

Another reason I think Israel will not attack Iran:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46598663/ns/world_news/#.T1B_mfUkAsA

Israelis don't want them to do it. Long and short of it, only 22% support a strike without it being a joint operation with the U.S. 45% don't support a strike under any circumstances.

 

[Nebor]

So what's the percentage of Americans that favor attacking Iran?

IIRC Iran is responsible for our economic recession, AND 9/11.

 

[Jhhnn]

So what's the percentage of Americans that favor attacking Iran?

IIRC Iran is responsible for our economic recession, AND 9/11.

Of course they are, and they're obviously forcing the peace loving govt of Israel to attack by saying bad things about them. Not to mention that they're sometimes at odds with the one true beacon of freedom & liberty in the region, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Their dastardly plans are so devious that we'll be forced to live under Sharia Law if we don't attack, destroy their newkewler program, bomb 'em back to the stone age... We can rejoice in the wailing & lamentations of their widows & orphans, have their skulls fashioned into wine goblets so we can better toast the end of their tyranny...

Am I getting this right? I mean, I don't want to over react or anything...

 

[JEDIYoda]

Of course they are, and they're obviously forcing the peace loving govt of Israel to attack by saying bad things about them. Not to mention that they're sometimes at odds with the one true beacon of freedom & liberty in the region, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Their dastardly plans are so devious that we'll be forced to live under Sharia Law if we don't attack, destroy their newkewler program, bomb 'em back to the stone age... We can rejoice in the wailing & lamentations of their widows & orphans, have their skulls fashioned into wine goblets so we can better toast the end of their tyranny...

Am I getting this right? I mean, I don't want to over react or anything...

of course you don`t want to over react....
Do us one favor...please don`t crap in your pants when you look out your window and you see a mushroom cloud!

 

[Nebor]

Of course they are, and they're obviously forcing the peace loving govt of Israel to attack by saying bad things about them. Not to mention that they're sometimes at odds with the one true beacon of freedom & liberty in the region, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Their dastardly plans are so devious that we'll be forced to live under Sharia Law if we don't attack, destroy their newkewler program, bomb 'em back to the stone age... We can rejoice in the wailing & lamentations of their widows & orphans, have their skulls fashioned into wine goblets so we can better toast the end of their tyranny...

Am I getting this right? I mean, I don't want to over react or anything...

We'll also burn their Ayatollahs and kill their Korans! Or something.

 

[Lemon law]

Israel does not threaten the oil - they have no access to it or choke points.

Iran has access to choke points; they have shown that they will do it based on their needs or plans, not another countries actions.

While you may desire Israel to be crushed; you have yet to show you and how it would be done (outside the mushroom cloud or within your mushroom filled mind)

You state the Israel is under a probation - who is the probation officer and when does the officer reside to be reported to.

Or is this another one of your fantasy statements

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Or maybe EK, on this entire thread, its a mirror mirror on the wall, is EK the most delusional of all.

As EK somehow looks at an Israeli preemptive strike on Iran as simply an attack on an Iran that is hated by everyone in the world. And can not possibly conceive that such an Israeli strike on Iran will not change mid-east dynamics.

And even if Iran curls up into a tiny ball thereafter, entities like Al-Quida may be inspired to attack oil tankers in the Persian gulf. Just one out of many possibilities that could happen.

Along with the fact that any initial Israeli 100 plus plane attack may be do little to even dent Iran. Or that Iran counter attacks could really hurt Israel.

 

[Nebor]

If Al Queda could attack oil tankers in the Persian gulf, they'd have done it already. Considering their hatred for the West and Saudi Arabia, it'd be a top priority if they had the capability.

Why don't we just bomb the shit out of Iran with B2s and then be like, "Damn Israelis! Didn't even warn us!"

 

[EagleKeeper]

There you go again with the counter attacks from Iran. With the exception of untested missiles or those that have been PhotoShoped, Iran has the same access to Israel that Israel has to Iran. Air or sea. Neither gas a Navy that can transport ground forces. Iran air is a laugh. So you have to go with ground forces already pre-staged by either side. There, Iran has the edge Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria. No one else, not Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Russia, China or the UN

 

[cybrsage]

Why don't we just bomb the shit out of Iran with B2s and then be like, "Damn Israelis! Didn't even warn us!"

I laughed!

 

[Abwx]

Given that any bombing of an active nuclear related facility will
produce radio active fallouts , Iran should make it clear that any
attack against their facility is equivalent to use dirty bombs
and will be considered as a nuclear attack.

Indeed , any such strike would legitimate Iran in building nuclear weapons
and both the US and the zionists knows it...