Super interesting read
@hankgreen: Massively under-reported science story because there's so much going on right now but...it turns out that we might have figured out what's causing this very scary spike. Quick thread, on how WE'VE BEEN A...…
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tldr: turns out that the shitty oil that boats where burning where causing cloud cover that helped temporarily reduce global warming, after the ban on using that fuel the oceans have started to heat up
Quick thread, on how WE'VE BEEN ACCIDENTALLY GEOENGINEERING FOR DECADES...but then we stopped
SO2 actually (very temporarily) cools things down by seeding clouds and creating sulfuric acid aerosols. That's not, like, /good/, but by making more clouds (and also decreasing the size of droplets in clouds, and thus increasing their number) more sunlight is reflected to space.
One big source of SO2 is international shipping. Big ships use dirty fuels, dumping a ton of SO2 into the atmosphere, thus seeding clouds. You can actually see them from space...they're called "Ship Tracks."
Now, sulfur pollution is bad...it acidifies the rain which acidifies the ocean (which is already dealing with acidification). It can cause lung problems in humans and animals. So the UN's International Maritime Organization created a new rule to limit sulfur in ship fuels.
They started enforcing this in 2020...and we "lost the cooling effect from a fairly large volcanic eruption each year" according to FSU atmospheric scientist Michael Diamond.
Models show that the extra warming we've been seeing in the North Atlantic (which is a very busy area for shipping) can pretty much be /entirely attributed/ to the extra sunlight hitting the ocean (which has, this year, also been worsened by less dust blowing from the Sahara.)