I wanted your opinion on this.
In 2008, we had the largest younger generation turn out rate in the primaries. People said about this in 2004 with cell phones, polls are skewed, however, that was 4 years ago and had less younger people voting.
As with Barack Obama, he attracted insane amount of college students.
Now there is a fact, that if you look at Gallup Polls, Obama loses 1-2 points on Friday and Saturday polls because of all the college kids/etc out in bars, clubs, just out. And then during the week they go back up.
For example, I am 25, married. I used to have a VoIP phone (which was never listed in yellow pages or anything), and then I even canceled that, now my wife has a cell and I got a cell. I never get any calls from anyone except the important calls.
Now the question is. How many polls you think are skewed because of this cell phone or VoIp phone issue. The only time my phone was listed in every White Page book was when I had a Verizon landline, then it disappeared.
All those college kids in their dorms, most of them don't have a landline in their dorm. Only probably a few of them have. Back in 2000-2004 I used to have a landline in the dorms, but then in 2004 I got my own cell (when I got my own job, etc). So it really confuses me, and it is very hard to find the facts. And I want to see real numbers, not landline numbers... it really frustrates me.
This might not matter in New York or California. But it matters in toss-up states, where only 5,000 votes could make a huge difference and is harder to predict. In reality, this issue could be only 1-2 points, but 1-2 points could be those 5,000 votes.
In 2008, we had the largest younger generation turn out rate in the primaries. People said about this in 2004 with cell phones, polls are skewed, however, that was 4 years ago and had less younger people voting.
As with Barack Obama, he attracted insane amount of college students.
Now there is a fact, that if you look at Gallup Polls, Obama loses 1-2 points on Friday and Saturday polls because of all the college kids/etc out in bars, clubs, just out. And then during the week they go back up.
For example, I am 25, married. I used to have a VoIP phone (which was never listed in yellow pages or anything), and then I even canceled that, now my wife has a cell and I got a cell. I never get any calls from anyone except the important calls.
Now the question is. How many polls you think are skewed because of this cell phone or VoIp phone issue. The only time my phone was listed in every White Page book was when I had a Verizon landline, then it disappeared.
All those college kids in their dorms, most of them don't have a landline in their dorm. Only probably a few of them have. Back in 2000-2004 I used to have a landline in the dorms, but then in 2004 I got my own cell (when I got my own job, etc). So it really confuses me, and it is very hard to find the facts. And I want to see real numbers, not landline numbers... it really frustrates me.
This might not matter in New York or California. But it matters in toss-up states, where only 5,000 votes could make a huge difference and is harder to predict. In reality, this issue could be only 1-2 points, but 1-2 points could be those 5,000 votes.
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