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If you look at the current poll, 23% nationalists vs. 21% for Sarkozy, over a year before the election, its very hard to imagine the nationalist Le Pen will end up on top. Together, it represents only 44% of the current French electorate, and also implies 77% of the French electorate feel no affinity with Le Pen.
As for Sarkozy, it points out the larger French electorate composed of conservatives, moderates, and liberals are not all united behind just Sarkozy. And when it comes to election crunch time on 5/2012, and it comes down to a vote of Nationist v more mainstream politician, I predict the Nationalist Le Pen will get crushed.