Polling suggests that the Republicans are going to win HUGE in two months

[ProfJohn]

There are two stories out today that suggest that the Republicans are looking at HUGE victories in the fall elections.

With the state of the economy unlikely to change in the next two months and nothing happening on the international stage I don't see any major changes in the playing field either. The Democrats only hope for staving off disaster was strong economic growth over the summer and when that fizzled so did their chances this fall.

Story 1:
Republicans now hold a 10 point lead in the generic ballot question for congressional levels. This 10 point lead is the HIGHEST one in the history of the poll and points to huge Republican gains in the fall. in 1994 the lead was only 5 points and the Republican won 54 seats. There is a good chance we may see another 50 seat change this year too.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/142718/GOP-Unprecedented-Lead-Generic-Ballot.aspx

Story 2:
"A University at Buffalo political scientist with a sterling record of prognosticating presidential elections is predicting that Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will turn over her gavel to the GOP come January."

The professor predicts a 51 seat turn over and his prediction is based on polling data, the mood of the country, Obama approval and the fact that the Democrats are over stretched with them holding 47 seats in districts that were won by Bush & McCain.

http://www.buffalonews.com/city/capital-connection/washington/article175227.ece

I think the two things that point to a Democrat disaster this fall are the 47 seats they hold in Republican districts and the HUGE lead the Republicans have in the generic ballot. Keep in mind that due to their turn out advantage Republicans tend to out perform polling data. In 1994 they had a 5 point lead in the generic ballot but won by the popular vote by 7%.

A brief look at popular vote vs seats held suggests that a 5 point victory in the popular vote should result in about 230 seats going to the Republicans. That would be about a 50 seat change which is similar to what Clinton lost in 1994.

At this point I think the Democrats will be lucky with only a 50 seat loss.

 

[wirelessenabled]

Better put a bigger lock on your wallets if this comes true. Just what we need now is the Republican Party huge deficit spending machine in charge.

 

[First]

lmao.

 

[CrackRabbit]

As I have said before, it comes down to individual races.

Generic X candidate means nothing on the larger scale of things.

 

[spidey07]

As I have said before, it comes down to individual races.

Generic X candidate means nothing on the larger scale of things.

You aren't paying attention to the polls. The overwhelming majority want to fire the incumbent and they are HIGHLY motivated to vote. Current polling says we haven't seen this much unrest in the people since 1994. Whenever liberalism starts pushing their ideas the country tells them to stop it.

Then throw in the independents by a wide margin say they'll be voting republican to stop obama's agenda.

 

[Pens1566]

You aren't paying attention to the polls. The overwhelming majority want to fire the incumbent. Current polling says we haven't seen this much unrest in the people since 1994. Whenever liberalism starts pushing their ideas the country tells them to stop it.

BS. Incumbents won over 90% of primaries.

Oh, and generic candidate polling means almost nothing.

 

[GTaudiophile]

My father (Tea Party guy) predicts that an "event" will occur in the USA between now and Super Tuesday that will give Obama the authority to declare martial law and postpone the elections.

 

[spidey07]

BS. Incumbents won over 90% of primaries.

Oh, and generic candidate polling means almost nothing.

In many states (most?) only registered Ds or Rs can vote in their respective primaries.

 

[CrackRabbit]

You aren't paying attention to the polls. The overwhelming majority want to fire the incumbent. Current polling says we haven't seen this much unrest in the people since 1994. Whenever liberalism starts pushing their ideas the country tells them to stop it.

You aren't paying attention to the candidates that are being put up.
Seriously you can't tell me you would vote for Sharon Angle, Carly Fiorina, or Linda McMahnon (sp)?

 

[Craig234]

We have too many idiot voters. If they vote Republlican, they deserve the disaster.

 

[bamacre]

The GOP has learned very little or perhaps nothing at all from the mistakes under Bush. So no matter who "wins" in Nov, the American people still lose. Again.

 

[bamacre]

We have too many idiot voters. If they vote Republlican, they deserve the disaster.

And they deserve the disaster we have now, too.

 

[Red Dawn]

Yeah when the economy sucks the party in power bares the brunt of of the voters wrath. It happened in 08 and it will happen in 2010. It's not going to make any difference, if the Republicans had any answers they would have presented them in 08.

 

[Craig234]

And they deserve the disaster we have now, too.

No, they don't deserve the Republicans blocking almost everything and prevnting the Democrats from passing good policies.

But it could be worse, they could have voted Libertarian.

A whole new spelling of disaster.

 

[ProfJohn]

Generic ballot DOES mean something.

It illustrates a tide like effect. The higher the tide the more likely weaker candidates are to get swept away by it.

Keep in mind that generic ballot polling is really an indicator of where the independents are going to vote. The partisans are unlikely to change their vote from the party they support, but the 10-20% in the middle who decide many elections will change their vote and will change outcomes.

Also keep in mind that Republican desire to turn out and vote is MUCH higher than Democrat desire. In one of the recent primary nights the Republican turn out was something like 10-20% more than Democrat turn out. That type of thing happens in the fall and any borderline Democrats are toast.

 

[ProfJohn]

No, they don't deserve the Republicans blocking almost everything and prevnting the Democrats from passing good policies.

But it could be worse, they could have voted Libertarian.

A whole new spelling of disaster.

Which good policies are they blocking??

Be specific please.

 

[Pens1566]

Considering the OP also predicted GOP keeping congress in '06 and '08, I'll take my chances.

 

[ProfJohn]

Better put a bigger lock on your wallets if this comes true. Just what we need now is the Republican Party huge deficit spending machine in charge.

Are you stupid or ignorant?

Obama has already surpassed Bush when it comes to deficit spending and it only took him two years.

 

[Pens1566]

Are you stupid or just intellectually dishonest?

 

[Balt]

The GOP has learned very little or perhaps nothing at all from the mistakes under Bush. So no matter who "wins" in Nov, the American people still lose. Again.

Yep. Does anyone really believe John Boehner is the answer to anything?

 

[Red Dawn]

Are you stupid or ignorant?

Obama has already surpassed Bush when it comes to deficit spending and it only took him two years.

Done in an attempt tp try and rescue the country from the mess Bush and the Republicans left the economy in. The verdicts still out if it was the right thing to do.

 

[bamacre]

No, they don't deserve the Republicans blocking almost everything and prevnting the Democrats from passing good policies.

LOL, yeah, it's the GOP's fault, they have way too much power.

I don't think the GOP was blocking Obama's indefinite detention ideas. It wasn't the GOP who forced Obama to escalate instead of end a no-win war in Afghanistan, nor who asked for MORE money for the Dept of Defense, while we put unemployment benefits on the credit card. Face it, the Democrats are fucking up on their own, they don't need the GOP helping.

 

[kage69]

BS. Incumbents won over 90% of primaries.

Oh, and generic candidate polling means almost nothing.

Why do you have to bring facts into it Pens?

Yep, they really showed that McCain fella alright!

More tea flops, shocker.

 

[Sinsear]

No, they don't deserve the Republicans blocking almost everything and prevnting the Democrats from passing good policies.

Seems to me the Dems could have passed anything they wanted to until one of your heroes, another member of the Kennedy Dynasty, finally died. And the best they could come up with was a "we have to pass it to see what's in it bill". What a joke.

 

[dainthomas]

My father (Tea Party guy) predicts that an "event" will occur in the USA between now and Super Tuesday that will give Obama the authority to declare martial law and postpone the elections.

Haha, wow. Is that before or after he builds minarets around the White House?