Clawhammer will ship in the 4Q as AMD has announced, but it will debut at well below the 3400+ rating currently expected by many on this forum. Instead of 2.0GHz, the processor will likely debut at 1.6GHz, as AMD has told oems under non-disclosure agreement. At 1.6GHz, the Clawhammer should carry an initial rating of 2800+ to 3000+.
There are three plausible release scenarios. If AMD can make the Christmas selling season with a release in late October or early November (with the 1.6GHz 2800+ to 3000+ Clawhammer), they will. I'd say the chance of this happening is in the neighborhood of 20%. Otherwise, they will ship out the 1.6GHz Clawhammer in late December, for release the first week of January, to coincide with the release of the P4 @ 3.0GHz. This is the scenario I expect as a financial analyst, with a 60% probability. The last possibility is that some issue will arise with the design or process that requires a delay well into 2003 (late 1Q, early 2Q).
With both Clawhammer and Barton (with its larger cache) featuring near identical die sizes on .13 micron, Barton will almost certainly be cancelled. Barton is almost as expensive to produce as Clawhammer; Barton is NOT a replacement for the Duron. It is meant only as a backup to continue the Athlon line in the event Clawhammer is delayed well into 2003.
Cheers,
Ken, who first predicted the Thoroughbred debacle back here in January '02