POLL: What will be the COVID body count in the US by election day?

[MtnMan]

How many dead Americans due to COVID by Election Day on 11/3/2020?
As of this posting there are 78 days until the election.

 

[nOOky]

A quarter million, but it's okay, some people's 401k's are back up!

 

[Fenixgoon]

A quarter million, but it's okay, some people's 401k's are back up!

Donald Trump: Just look at your 401k!

Interviewer: Do you mean retirement or the COVID-19 death toll?

Edit: I voted 275, figuring an average of 1k/day plus a little speed up as it courses through the mid/west

 

[cytg111]

275k and that is only cause people will defy Trumps "open everything" orders.

 

[soundforbjt]

I'm waiting for the spike from Sturgis to hit in the next week or two.

 

[fleshconsumed]

I'm putting on 225. 78 days until election day, at 1000 deaths per day average that's 78000 in addition to current 179000. I bet death rates will go down somewhat so we'll end up in the ballpark of additional 50K deaths or about 225K total deaths by election day. Although I wouldn't be surprised if my projections are on the low side and we'll end up around 250,000 total deaths by election.

 

[Stokely]

Doesn't matter, half the country thinks "the media" is vastly inflating the "crisis" and that we are greatly over-counting covid deaths. Never mind that most scientists I've heard think we are under-counting. This country will never "come together" when we can't even agree on basic facts and numbers (let alone what they mean).

My co-worker, very smart phone data administrator, maintains that excess deaths are not up this year. I'm fairly sure I know where he got that from. If you accept underlying bad data as truth then it skews everything else.

And for the record, if it's shown (by someone reputable) that excess deaths are NOT up--I'd adjust my thinking accordingly. I consider this one of the few stats that a lying cheating government can't really cover up (so they get their lapdog Fox to do it for them with "opinion pieces".) It also takes any interpretation of why someone died out of it. There are certainly issues with lags in reporting with deaths that you have to watch for.

 

[feralkid]

I'm waiting for the spike from Sturgis to hit in the next week or two.

"Biker Spike" tm.

 

[MtnMan]

I'm waiting for the spike from Sturgis to hit in the next week or two.

That will be hard to track because people from all over go there, and will then go home to spread the joy. Of course that is a worst case scenario way to spread the virus. I wonder if there is anyway to track where these people go after the event like a map I saw when all the spring break'ers went home from the beaches earlier this year. It was done by their cell phone location history.

Running a close second is the school openings... coming to a school near you soon.

These are why I chose a conservative 300K.

 

[Jhhnn]

I'm putting on 225. 78 days until election day, at 1000 deaths per day average that's 78000 in addition to current 179000. I bet death rates will go down somewhat so we'll end up in the ballpark of additional 50K deaths or about 225K total deaths by election day. Although I wouldn't be surprised if my projections are on the low side and we'll end up around 250,000 total deaths by election.

I'll say 250K, maybe 300K, depending on the covidiot factor. If we attribute all excess deaths to the pandemic, it'll crack 300K easily.

 

[UNCjigga]

UNC spiking and ending in-person classes after ONE WEEK is big news in my neck of the woods. Not often you see headlines like this in the paper:

 

[Jhhnn]

That will be hard to track because people from all over go there, and will then go home to spread the joy. Of course that is a worst case scenario way to spread the virus. I wonder if there is anyway to track where these people go after the event like a map I saw when all the spring break'ers went home from the beaches earlier this year. It was done by their cell phone location history.

Running a close second is the school openings... coming to a school near you soon.

These are why I chose a conservative 300K.

I'm sure there will be something like that. The event ended yesterday, so it'll be a little while.

Schools? Some will try. Few will be able to persist.

 

[MtnMan]

I'm sure there will be something like that. The event ended yesterday, so it'll be a little while.

Schools? Some will try. Few will be able to persist.

UNC Chapel Hill already has clusters of COVID in dorms.
Local high school had positive cases in voluntary football practice.
GA school quarantines 1200 students
...
...
etc.

 

[DarthKyrie]

I'm going with 375K come election day.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

We've been averaging 1k/day for a month, after ramping up from something closer to 700/day avg from the month prior to that. I'm gonna assume we've got 78 more days of 1k/day, so 248k. Rounding up to 250k for people being forced to vote in person leading up to the election.

 

[alien42]

We've been averaging 1k/day for a month, after ramping up from something closer to 700/day avg from the month prior to that. I'm gonna assume we've got 78 more days of 1k/day, so 248k. Rounding up to 250k for people being forced to vote in person leading up to the election.

that's pretty much the same logic i used. one factor you didn't mention that could increase the number is the flu season, of course it will just be starting around the election.

 

[Greenman]

Wouldn't it be just as valid to ask how many will be dead through complications of obesity? While not contagious, there is no denying it's spread.

 

[brycejones]

Wouldn't it be just as valid to ask how many will be dead through complications of obesity? While not contagious, there is no denying it's spread.

Sometimes it’s best to not advertise what kind of dumb ass you are.

 

[ch33zw1z]

Wouldn't it be just as valid to ask how many will be dead through complications of obesity? While not contagious, there is no denying it's spread.

If you want to have a bigger conversation about Americans unhealthy lifestyles in general, may I offer you post a thread about it.

To answer your question: No it's not just as valid. Context matters.

 

[dullard]

Wouldn't it be just as valid to ask how many will be dead through complications of obesity? While not contagious, there is no denying it's spread.

The numbers will be about the same by the end of the year. Covid deaths might slightly outpace obesity deaths in the US, but Covid was not really been in the US for the whole year either.

The problem with your analogy is that ignoring obesity kills you while ignoring Covid kills others. I'll give people the right to kill themselves with obesity. But that right ends when they leave their home with Covid and start killing others.

 

[Homerboy]

I'm waiting for the spike from Sturgis to hit in the next week or two.

here's your results:

Results Are In: Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Was A COVID 'Super Spreader' Costing Billions

Anyone with a brain could tell that putting on the gigantic Sturgis Motorcycle Rally this year would be a bad idea. Now we have a scientific study to affirm this was a worst-case scenario, an event that appears to be accountable for 250,000 cases of COVID-19 at a public cost of $12 billion.

jalopnik.com

In the immortal words of their immortal leader: "Not Good!"

 

[hal2kilo]

School opening success or failure and how it's handled is the big variable.